LAUREL PARK PICKS AND PONDERINGS: january 5, 2024
In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…
Post time: 12:25 p.m.
Carryovers:
Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $0
Jackpot Super High 5 — $0
Late Pick 5 — $0
Check out our other handicapping here!
RACE 1: CLAIMING $25,000 (N/W2L), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES
6-1-5-7
We’ll ring in the new year with a field of seven going a route of ground. This race will determine who, if only for a race, will lead the horse, owner, trainer, and jockey standings. #6 Master of None (9-5) is one of two in here to have run brisnet figures in the 80s in each of his last two dirt starts, and has tremendous late pace figures. He closed well for second going seven furlongs last out; more distance should be in his wheelhouse. #1 Energy Efficient (9-2) broke his maiden going away three starts ago, but was no match for better in his last two races. He was a game second in his lone two-turn start in October 2022 (losing, incidentally, to Master of None), and should benefit from some slight class relief. #5 Bill of Rights (2-1) goes first off the claim for $16,000 by Anthony Farrior, who did not have a particularly strong fall meet, but is nonetheless dangerous with new arrivals. This one was a solid-closing second last out despite drifting in in the stretch. The winner, By Its Absence, won his third in a row next out at Charles Town; third and fifth-place finishers Despite Odds and Nick’s Little Boy finished 1-2, respectively, in their next start.
RACE 2: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $30,000, 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/8 MILES
5-2-6-1
#5 Bode’s Maker (2-1) never stood a chance in his last start. Racing on a speed and rail-biased strip, Feeling Woozy zoomed out to a long early lead and left the others reeling. With a lack of early speed and a wide trip, Bode’s Maker ended up well-beaten. He runs much better into more honest paces, and should turn in a good account of himself first off the claim by Brittany Russell. Russell was Maryland’s leading trainer in 2023; my next two picks are trained by runner-up Jamie Ness. #2 Exit Right (3-1) chased the pace while wide at Aqueduct last out and stopped badly. That race was also on a wet track; he tends to run much better on a fast surface, which he’ll get today. #6 Jardani (8-1) improved a bit to get fourth second off the layoff last out, and should make a major late impact.
- Sea Dancer gets valuable stakes win in CarouselSea Dancer, a younger half-sis to one of the top turf horses in the country, earned her first stakes win in Saturday’s Carousel at Laurel Park.
RACE 3: MAIDEN CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS
8-7-2-5
After racing lethargically in her first two starts, #8 Outfactored (7-2) showed a bit of early speed last out, battling for second with second choice Ree Nee’s Six. Neither one stood much of a chance behind loose leader Lady Charlotte, but Outfactored hung around late and ran a decent 51. She should contend in this less-than-stellar bunch with a little more improvement. #7 Notafraidtocharge (2-1) is sure to take plenty of money, being a New York shipper for Rudy Rodriguez. This one ran a strong 68 in her dirt debut two starts ago, but backed up badly in her last start and was beaten more than 20 lengths. Still, she probably has the highest ceiling of anyone in this group. #2 Sun Streaming (5-2) made mild ground to get third in her first start off a three-month layoff last out, and should sit close to the pace on the rail.
RACE 4: STARTER ALLOWANCE $5,000, 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS
5-6-1-3
#5 Nottoway (7-5) cruised at this level two starts back, beating some of today’s rivals in the process, and was oufinished for third against better last out. Dropping back in class should do the trick. #6 Top Boss (2-1) got involved in a speed duel through brutal fractions in his last race, and finished well-beaten (though he did outfinish his dueling partner by two lengths). When he gets more moderate fractions, he tends to at least hang around for a share. While there’s lots of speed in here, he has the best early pace figures by a fair amount, so if anyone can sneak away to a relatively uncontested lead, it will be him. #1 Grand Manner (5-1) ran a game second on the lead last out, and has the option of being sent or stalking. The best bet for still-green apprentice Darwin Rodriguez might be to rate off the speedsters and try to at least get a share.
RACE 5: CLAIMING $5,000, 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES
9-6-2-5
#9 Transfer the Funds (8-1) has solid late speed, and gets class relief after facing, among others, the very tough Paradise Pride in his last start. He won on the lead a few starts ago, and has closed well for shares against similar foes as today’s despite slow paces in front of him. While the recent form of #6 Southern District (6-5) is worthy of respect, including a victory against starter optional claiming types, it’s a tad alarming that Jamie Ness is willing to lose him for $5,000 after taking him for $30,000 in mid-October. It’s possible Ness is simply jammed up in higher classes and he’s simply looking for a win, but I’m a tad suspect at low odds. #2 Saponara (20-1) has some speed from the inside and has respectable figures in his last two starts. He lasted until the last eighth through pace pressure at Parx last out, and could make some front-end noise at a good number.
RACE 6: MAIDEN CLAIMING $20,000, 4 AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 1 MILE
6-7-4-9
#6 Band Camp (6-1) ran well first off a seven-month layoff last out. He showed heart in the stretch but couldn’t get by a fresher rival, Battle of Bostogne, and ended up second. Still, he ran a career-best 82 that day, and should only get better with a race under his belt. #7 Holey Moley (4-1) made his dirt debut in his last start, and chased 11-10 favorite Von Hoff, who took them gate-to-wire. This one finished a solid third that day, representing the best late punch, however mild, he’s shown in a while. While this is a drop in class on paper, this is a tougher field than the one he saw last time. Still, he’s a contender. #4 Army Cadet (8-1) was second in his two dirt starts behind Sweet Syntax and Austin From Boston, both of whom have won since. While this one’s never gone beyond six furlongs, two of his siblings have won going a mile or longer, and his 2-year-old full brother, Midnight Mascot, was recently stakes-placed around one turn.
- “Miracle” horse All Caps wins first in two yearsAll Caps nearly died from an infection two years ago. So how did she get to the winner’s circle at Charles Town Saturday? “A miracle,” says her owner.
RACE 7: CLAIMING $5,000, 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 7 FURLONGS
1-5-7-6
#1 Instinctive (5-1) has the best last-out figure in the field by eight points, having run an 80 last out in a grinding victory at Parx. I might prefer this one going a mile, but she nonetheless has solid late speed, and did finish second in her lone try at this distance, a race where she was pace-compromised behind an odds-on favorite. #5 Sweet Talia (6-1) also comes in off a victory, having sat the trip and converted at Charles Town last out. This one has rather inconsistent form, but pops up occasionally to run in the low-70s. #7 Matoula (8-5) ran huge in victory two starts back for Jamie Ness, but flattened out after a wide trip going longer last out first off the claim by Mario Serey. Serey now cuts her back from 1 1/16 miles, and she should have a much better trip today.
RACE 8: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, MD-BRED/SIRED, 5 1/2 FURLONGS
1-3-2-6
If it’s ever going to be the day for #1 Take a Hint (5-2), it’ll probably be today. He’s finished second or third six times in a row without a win, never a good sign. However, he’s run well compared to these as of late, including a game second-place effort after setting the pace two starts back, followed by another runner-up finish to the dominant Rominski, who came back to win in gate-to-wire fashion as much the best. There’s no one in here on Rominski’s level. #3 Freeze the Fire (6-1) was third behind Rominski and Take a Hint last out, in his first start off a two-month layoff. He’s faced some tough rivals in his last few starts, and should enjoy what amounts to class relief, even if it’s not so on paper. #2 Boss Man J J (8-1) got third in a blanket finish in a very tough conditioned claiming race last out. He likes to get checks, but not win, so he should sit near the pace and grab a slice.
RACE 9: CLAIMING $5,000 (CONDITIONED), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS
3-4-7-1
Unlike in some races earlier on the card, I’m not trying to beat the chalk here. #3 Savoy (1-1) has started to round back into form after a summer swoon, running at least a 76 in each of his last four starts. He finished a stout-closing second last out, and now gets a rider switch to Jeiron Barbosa. #4 Grand Escape (2-1) showed heart on the lead two starts back to lose by two lengths, and now looks like the dominant speed in this field. If he can shake clear early, he could prove tough to catch. #7 Buffalo Shuffle (6-1) has good tactical speed and gets Jaime Rodriguez aboard for the first time. He’ll try to wear down Grand Escape from his outside.
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