Jockey Victor Rodriguez and trainer Jeff Runco are Charles Town’s early leaders in wins above expectations after eight live racing days, with the former having 1.56 wins more than his odds would have predicted and the latter scoring 1.45 more wins than expected.

The Racing Biz analyzed the performance of each rider and trainer versus the takeout-adjusted odds on their runners. Each jockey’s and trainer’s wins were compared to their expected wins. We include only jockeys that have made at least five starts at Charles Town this year and trainers that have made at least three.

Rodriguez has won with four of 27 mounts entering tonight’s action at Charles Town. That’s the third-highest win total there thus far; two riders have six wins each, and two more have five apiece, while Rodriguez is one of four with four wins. But his odds would have predicted just 2.44 wins to date, giving him the colony-leading wins above expectations total.

Rodriguez is followed in that category by Abnel Bocachica, whose five wins are 1.33 more than expected, and Reshawn Latchman, whose four wins are 1.03 above expectations. Also above the 1.0 wins above expectations threshold is Javier Rivera; he’s 3-for-15, 1.02 wins above expectations.

Thus far, 24 jockeys have made at least five starts at the meet. Eleven of those have won more races than their odds would have predicted, while for 13, the reverse is true.

Angel Cruz leads all riders in percentage of purse earned. Cruz has made only five local starts – he primarily rides in Maryland – but has won with two of those while earning just over 28% of purse moneys available in those starts. Among regular Charles Town riders, the top group includes Carlos Lopez (21.1%), Marshall Mendez (18.4%), Arnaldo Bocachica (18%), Javier Rivera (16.3%), and Abnel Bocachica (15.1%).

On the trainer side, Runco is 5-for-18 to start the meet. Only Ronney Brown (6-for-29) has more wins thus far. The odds of Runco’s starters would have predicted 3.55 wins, and his resultant wins above expectations total of 1.45 leads the colony.

Also exceeding 1.0 wins above expectations are Donald Barber (1.39), Javier Contreras (1.22), and Stacey Viands (1.11). Barber has two wins from six starters, and Viands has two from seven; Contreras is 4-for-17 and tied with Anthony Farrior for third in wins at the track.

In all, 49 trainers have had at least three starters at Charles Town thus far, and 23 of them have won more their odds would have predicted.

Barber, whose two wins have helped him register 30.6% of available purses, leads the colony in that category. Among trainers with at least 10 starts thus far, Runco is tops with 21.2%. He’s followed by Ronald Sigler (20.2% from 11 starters) and Brown (19.5%).

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