RACE 1: CLAIMING $16,000 (N/W2L), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

6-3-4-2

Carlos Mancilla has them surrounded in the opener; he trains my top two picks and the two likely favorites. More sunny skies will greet us for today’s 9-race card. #6 Battle of Bostogne (9-5), the older half-brother to Post Time, made his dirt debut a winning one last out, rallying to get up in the last few jumps to break his maiden, with far and away a career-best brisnet figure of 84. That’s the best last-out mark by ten points. It’s an outlier from the rest of his recent form, but it’s also possible he likes dirt that much. #3 Katie’s Notion (2-1) ran a respectable 74 first off a 13-month layoff last out, and drops in class from the $25,000 level. He should work out a trip near the leaders. #4 Box N Ben (3-1) has hit the board 11 times in 12 career starts (with only one win, of course). He likes to set the pace and hang around for a share; that’s once again the most likely outcome today.

RACE 2: MAIDEN CLAIMING $20,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS

1-6-7-3

After showing nothing in his first two starts, #1 Sin Permiso (6-1) closed well for third at 93/1 last out, and has by far the best last-out late pace figure in the field. If he can avoid traffic, he could get a nice path to close towards the inside. #6 Kick Startness (2-1) comes out of the same race as Sin Permiso, and finished second after rating off the pace and getting outkicked by victorious Had to Have Him (who is in later today). It was a solid effort for his fist start at the condition, and Jamie Ness trainees are always dangerous (even though his first-call rider, Jaime Rodriguez, is on suspension; Carlos Lopez has the mount here instead). #7 Get Like Mike (9-2) showed speed and faded going two turns last out, and might benefit from a cutback in distance.

RACE 3: STARTER ALLOWANCE $5,000, 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

3-7-2-1

While #7 Paradise Pride (4-5) has lots of early speed and great recent figures, he’s also burned up a lot of money lately. He was third at 3-10 three starts ago, then finished second behind the hard-knocking Oxide last out when he didn’t change leads. What’s more, he could get a pace challenge on his inside from #2 Ace Nine Nine (5-2), who won going away at this level three starts back, but was flat last out, and Galatians, who rode a biased track to victory last week. Considering how flawed the favorites are, I’ll go a bit off the board and take #3 Remembering Wilbur (6-1). He beat open claimers twice in a row, and while his last effort was flat, it was going 5 1/2 furlongs, which may be too short for him. Now, he gets more distance, and has shown good tactical speed that could come in handy if Paradise Pride can’t clear.

RACE 4: MAIDEN CLAIMING $30,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 1 1/16 MILES

6-3-2-4

There was a big scratch out of this race yesterday. With the quarantine on horses in New York, Rick Dutrow will not be able to run By the Glass, who was a potential odds-on favorite. That opens things up a bit. #6 Easter Sunday Girl (9-2) ran well first off a six-month layoff at Tampa Bay Downs. Stretching out from 4 1/2 furlongs to a mile and 40 yards, she rated off the pace, ran down the early leader, then engaged in a battle with her stalking partner and lost by a length. Further improvement off the bench likely wins this. #3 Classy Chick (5-1) drops in class after not seriously threatening against $45,000 horses last out. She’s run at a 65 in each of her last three starts, so she should benefit from the class relief. #2 Overmuch (8-5) was well-bet on debut at Parx, but raced wide on the pace and was well-beaten. She looks for improvement at second asking for the Repole/Brittany Russell combination.

RACE 5: CLAIMING $10,000 (N/W3L), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES

6-4-3-2

The second and third-place finishers at this level on Jan. 7 are my top two picks in this race. #4 Please Marry Me (9-5) set the pace and opened up a clear lead on the backstretch, but was run down by #6 Never Done (7-5), who cleared her non-winners of two condition in her prior race, but got caught late here and settled for second. I imagine a similar scenario to play out here, in which Please Marry Me sets the pace and Never Done runs her down. #3 Jess’s Gypsy Girl (7-2) lasted through pace pressure while wide last out, and kicked away to beat non-winners of two foes by five lengths. She might try to make things interesting for Please Marry Me from her inside, but she’s not necessarily a need-the-lead type.

RACE 6: MAIDEN CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 1 MILE

8-2-10-7

#8 Amorica (4-1) is one of two in here who has run at least a 51 (!) in each of her last three stats, including a respectable 59 while wide on a biased tack against better last out. The only one with comparable figures is #2 Buckin’ Dreamer (7-5) , who has run in the 60s in each of her six career starts. However, she hasn’t raced since Sept. 1 at Timonium, and last Saturday, we saw a horse (Troubled Dreams) make her first start since then, go off favored, and lose. This one has to be respected, but I’m treading lightly. #10 R B’s Big Moment (5-2) battled for the lead and outfinished her dueling partner by 10 1/2 lengths, but was no match for easy winner Next Girl. This one should be a factor on the lead, but does run the risk of getting caught wide from the far outside post.

RACE 7: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

5-3-6-2

Kitten’s Appeal, a New York shipper, will not go. I won’t try to beat this Jamie Ness favorite. #5 Mystic Seaport (7-5) ran a big 92 last out, racing three-wide on the pace and holding third behind My Flicker, who won against second-level rivals next out, and Royal Whisper, who was third in the Geisha Stakes in her last start. She’s been in consistently improving form over the past few months, and looks to have these over a barrel. #3 Lady Serenity (8-1) rode a biased track to victory in her last start, but ran well for second on a fairer strip in her prior race. She’s shown good tactical speed, and should rate a nice trip. #6 Sister Supream (15-1) also likes to rate off the pace, and could get up for a share at a price if things get interesting early.

RACE 8: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS

3-4-7-1

Rather than contest last Saturday’s Spectacular Bid Stakes, Jerry Robb decided to take a step back with Maryland Million Nursery champion #3 Catahoula Moon (2-1). He was a game second in the Maryland Juvenile two starts back, but flattened out after a wide trip in the Heft Stakes in his next performance. He has a good workout under his belt since then, and has possibly the highest ceiling in the race. His most serious competition comes from #4 Point Dume (5-2), who crushed the field in his local debut. He was claimed out of that race by Kieron Mage. While he was very impressive, it was a soft group, and he had done less than nothing in his three prior races. I’m cautiously optimistic. #7 Nancy Made My Day (9-2) ran a career-best 87 behind the speedy One Way Traffic last out. It’s an outlier figure compared t the rest of is form, but he has improved his figure in each of his last three starts, It’s possible he can keep it up.