RACE 1: CLAIMING $30,000 (N/W2L), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

2-5-4-7

#2 Goodafternoonoscar (6-1) was no match for much better Maryland-bred allowance foes in his last two starts, but now gets some class relief and should be factor off of what looks like a contested pace. One of the horses who could be on that early pace is #5 Von Hoff (7-5). He’s dealt with pace pressure in his last few starts with mixed results. Three races back, in his second start off a two-year break, he held on for second after battling on the lead at Aqueduct. However, in his last two starts, he’s finished well-beaten after showing early speed. Still, he’s facing easier rivals than he’s seen before, so a bounce-back is possible (though it might not be worth the price you’ll get). #4 Super Bourbon (8-1) broke his maiden in gate-to-wire fashion last out at third asking, and has improved by leaps and bounds with every start.

RACE 2: CLAIMING $5,000, 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE

5-3-8-6

#5 Thunder Buggy (8-5) wired a few of these two starts back, but faded when she dealt with more serious pace pressure in her last start. She looks like the only serious speed in here, so she would be able to wire them without hassle. If she ends up getting pace pressure and fades, #3 Irish Lace (5-2) is the most likely one to pick up the pieces. She won at this level and distance in mid-December. Last out, she made a solid off-the-pace move to get second (the same race where Thunder Buggy faded), losing to heavily favored Out Dancing, who looked much the best on paper. #8 Congress Hall (6-1) was more forwardly-placed than usual in her last outing at Charles Town, and converted the trip to an easy win. She’s gotten better with just about every start since her grass season ended in mid-November.

RACE 3: MAIDEN CLAIMING $12,500, 4 AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 7 FURLONGS

4-2-6-7

My top two picks exit the same race on Feb. 16. In both cases, they were much-improved efforts second off a long break. #4 Nico Lucky (5-2) broke awkwardly in his first start in more than ten months two starts back, and subsequently showed little. However, he stepped it up next out, rating off the pace and getting up for second with a career-best brisnet mark of 81. He should only get better with experience. The same is true of fellow Ray Ginter trainee #2 Where’s Ray (3-1), who battled on that pace and held third. His dueling partner, Band Camp, drew off to win by open lengths, so it wasn’t a terribly destructive duel. Still, he ran a career-best 76 that day, and could be in line for another top mark third off the layoff. #6 Army Cadet (7-2) drops to this level for the first time. He most recently tried $30,000 foes, where he closed well from last and lost second by only 2 1/2 lengths.

RACE 4: CLAIMING $5,000 (CONDITIONED), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

1-2-8-9

#1 Smooth Rico (5-2) has run by far the best figures of anyone in the field, having run in the 80s in three of his last four races. He sat the trip and pulled away to beat slightly softer in his last outing, and should get a nice trip near the pace on the rail. #2 Nick’s Little Boy (3-1) ran his best race in a while last out, earning an 81 when third after making what looked like a bold move. He should be prominent on the early pace as well, and based on his recent races, if he wins this one, he’ll have earned it. #8 Patriotic Party (15-1) is in consistently good form and has a solid late punch. His only bad race within his last few came three races back, when he broke terribly and stood no chance from there.

RACE 5: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $12,500, 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

7-4-3-1

#7 Hotpot (3-1) shipped here from his Parx base for his last start off two consecutive wins. He made up some nice late ground and finished fourth in a very salty field which included three-time 2024 winner Up Against It and next-out winner Fun Lovin Criminal. Though on paper, he’s staying at the same level, this is a drop in class for this gelding, who should be in prime position to mow them down late. #4 Commanding General (6-1) also finished behind Up Against It in his last start (though not in the same race as Hot Pot), holding on for second after setting blazing early fractions. He should get a loose lead and hang in there as long as he can. #3 Big Rowdy Dan (7-2) was little factor behind Hotpot in his last start, but ran in the 80s with some consistency prior to that race. He’s bounced around between here, Gulfstream Park, and Fair Grounds quite a bit recently, and should enjoy staying at the same track for two consecutive races.

RACE 6: CLAIMING $40,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS

2-8-1-11

#2 Stop Being Greedy (6-1) came from well off the pace to break his maiden going away on debut at Charles Town. The 73 he earned that day is a few points below what some of the others have run, but Charles Town figures tend to be a few points lower than ones here. If his form transfers over here, and there’s no reason to believe it won’t, he should mow them down once again. #8 Burningupthedough (7-2) goes first off a two-month respite for Hugh McMahon. He rated off the pace to break his maiden going away two starts back, over next-out winner Gabriel Seven and next-out runner-up Minny Speightster. He faced tougher last out, but matched his 80 and should work out a nice trip. #1 Square Slice (6-1) rallied to win last out with a career-best 85. His only bad race as of late came in the mud, and he won’t have to worry about that here.

RACE 7: MAIDEN CLAIMING $20,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 1 MILE

2-3-4-8

#2 No Walk Inthe Park (8-1) is in steadily improving form, most recently second after getting outkicked following a wide trip. Her best race came in her lone seven-furlong try, so she should enjoy the extra distance. #3 Easter Sunday Girl (6-1) was a game second on the pace first off an eight-month layoff at Tampa Bay Downs last out. It was an encouraging race compared to her debut in June at Delaware Park, where she did little running, and proved that she can go a mile or further. She was entered in a longer spot on Feb. 4 (where I picked her on top), but was scratched, and now resurfaces here with a workout under her belt since. #4 Maximum Emily (8-1) was the lone first-time starter in her debut at Aqueduct last out. She chased the pace but came up empty, and gets Jaime Rodriguez and a bit of class relief. Gary Contessa isn’t great with first-timers, but he’s better at second asking.

RACE 8: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, MD-BRED/SIRED, 6 FURLONGS

4-2-3-6

#4 Royal Seamstress (6-5) ran a game race on the lead last out, her first start off a brief layoff. She was pressed on the pace by the hard-knocking Liquidator in her last start and pulled clear of that rival, only to have Liquidator run her down late. There’s no one in here of Liquidator’s caliber, which gives her less to worry about. #2 Devil Pays in Gold (7-2) has found her best self again, with back-to-back sharp victories. She ran figures in the 80s in both of those races, right around her career peak and at the level she needs to win this race. She could be sitting on a big effort. #3 Angelofcanterbury (4-1) rounded back into her best form third off the layoff at Parx, with a driving gate-to-wire victory. She could prove tough on the lead for the ever-potent Jaime Ness/Jamie Rodriguez combo.