This year’s Blue Grass Stakes is shaping into the premier prep race for next month’s Kentucky Derby. As a part of the last grouping of 100-point preps, the Blue Grass features a rematch of the Grade 2 Remsen stretch duel between Sierra Leone and Dornoch. 

While Dornoch was able to battle back in that try after a huge move by Sierra Leone, the latter then went on to win the Grade 2 Risen Star in a visually impressive effort. Dornoch rerouted to Gulfstream for the Fountain of Youth stakes following his Remsen, holding on with a hard-fought gate-to-wire victory. 

Sierra Leone enters this try off of seven weeks of rest for trainer Chad Brown, while Dornoch’s connections opted to skip the Florida Derby and aim him towards this race after a month off. These two top Derby contenders are joined by Brad Cox’s up-and-coming Just a Touch and his John Battaglia winner Encino, as well as some other less-accomplished runners who round out this 11-horse field. 

Dornoch may begin with 3/1 morning line odds as the second choice but has an edge on Sierra Leone with two graded wins and his victory in the Remsen. From the four post, he figures to be in control of this race early. 

“That’s a good spot,” Dornoch’s trainer Danny Gargan told Keeneland’s press office. “He came out of the 3-hole in the Fountain of Youth and the Remsen. He will come out of there running and make his way through.” 

Trainer Chad Brown does have two runners in this field in addition to Sierra Leone. Good Money will break directly to Dornoch’s outside. After a solid fourth in the Grade 3 Tampa Derby, Good Money is perhaps a tad overmatched with just two starts, but may be the only other runner who takes aim at Dornoch in the early going. It would take a step up in early speed to knock Dornoch off his path, but since Sierra Leone factors in as a deep closer, look for one of the other Chad Brown entries to disrupt Dornoch here. 

It is more than likely that Dornoch simply possesses too much speed for a longshot to contend with early, but depending on the pace, nine furlongs could be near his distance limit. Top Conor, a million-dollar two-year-old, is also trained by Chad Brown and breaks from the rail. He was close to a sharp first half mile in his only career start, and will need to build on that try to press the Danny Gargan trainee. 

Still, the Risen Star may have proven that Sierra Leone will be making a late move regardless of the pace scenario, as he passed three strong horses in the stretch there despite modest fractions. Passing Track Phantom as easily as he did was impressive, while also finishing ahead of the eventual Louisiana Derby winner Catching Freedom makes that win even stronger. Sierra Leone is the 2/1 morning line favorite here.

A tougher ten post for Sierra Leone and his best races being run over muddy tracks may be his primary questions besides experience, but Brad Cox’s top contender, Just a Touch, appears to have those same questions without a signature win yet. At 7/2 on the morning line, Just a Touch comes out of Aqueduct’s Gotham Stakes where he ran second to Deterministic as the favorite despite only one maiden start prior to that race. He has run over sloppy surfaces in both races, but was still moving forward in the stretch in the Gotham to finish second, so distance looks to be no issue. A little more seasoning was vital for this entry coming into a tougher field here, and the upside is evident as he starts as the third choice on the morning line. 

The other Brad Cox runner, Encino, picked up a signature win in Turfway’s John Battaglia Memorial, which netted him 20 Derby points. A top four finish at least will likely be needed to get into the Derby field, but this one continues to improve in speed figures in his three starts and might be peaking at the right time to be competitive here. Encino likely factors in more as one who will be in a ground-saving position, but he has also won from the lead and has some versatility to counter different scenarios here. 

Unfortunately, another tough post – he’s breaking from the 11-hole – could hurt his chances. But picking up Flavien Prat should help him avoid a troubled trip. The primary adjustment for this colt is his switch from Turfway’s synthetic Tapeta surface to dirt, as he has not yet raced outside of Florence Kentucky in his career.

It would be difficult to avoid Todd Pletcher’s lone runner here. Pletcher has a record four Blue Grass victories, including last year with Tapit Trice. Be You breaks from the two-hole at morning line odds of 8/1 despite just picking up his first win in six tries last month. After a few failed Grade 1 efforts as a two year old this fall, Be You took three more cracks at maiden company, finally entering the winner’s circle at Gulfstream Park with a mid-pack trip. At only seven furlongs, it appears difficult to see a scenario where he improves enough to compete here, despite the bloodlines of Curlin-Jacaranda, by Congrats and a yearling price tag of $320,000. 

John Ennis’s Epic Ride may be the last contender who has shown some ability to compete here, recently getting outkicked by Encino in the Battaglia after stalking the lead throughout. Even in defeat, he ran a valiant second and should be in good position here, having never finished worse than second in four starts. A step up in competition and surface change to dirt could put him in the same boat as Encino as two who need career bests to win, even though this one could hit the board.

The rematch of Dornoch and Sierra Leone could be vital going forward as the Derby prep season begins to come to a close. This duo, among the nine other entries, look to become the first Kentucky Derby winner from Keeneland since Street Sense in 2007. 

The Blue Grass has a post time of 5:52 PM EDT as Keeneland’s tenth race on their Saturday card.

THE PICKS 

1. #4 Dornoch (3-1) 

2. #10 Sierra Leone (2-1) 

3. #11 Encino (12-1) 

4. #6 Just a Touch (7-2)

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