Recently a struggle for prospective Kentucky Derby runners, the Grade 2 Wood Memorial Stakes has not yielded a Run for the Roses winner since Funny Cide in 2003, who ran second to Empire Maker in the 2003 Wood before turning the tables on that runner in Louisville.

The Wood has been run as a Grade 2 since 2017 and appears again to have a less-established group compared to the other 100-point preps. 

Christophe Clement’s Deterministic starts as the 7/5 morning line favorite following his comfortable win in Aqueduct’s Grade 3 Gotham, where he picked up 50 Derby points. Even with just two career starts, this colt appears to be above the rest here and arguably highlights the potential lack of top-end talent in the 13-horse field. Perhaps Deterministic can build on his early success and put forth a performance that places him amongst the top Derby contenders, or a longer shot takes a step forward and finds his way into the Churchill gate in a month. Either way, it would take some quick maturity for these runners to break the losing streak of Wood Memorial participants in the Derby.

Deterministic may end up a tad overbet here after an impressive Gotham Stakes victory, but he should be the winner with some improvement from that race. Likely sitting slightly off the lead in a race that could be quick early, this colt showed a strong finishing kick to win a graded stakes in just his second start after a long layoff from the summer. Two 20/1 morning line longshots, Evening News and Merit, who break from the six and seven post respectively, should be vying for the lead with El Grande O and Tuscan Sky close behind. With a favorable four post, Deterministic can avoid traffic with a good break and settle in after these four. 

Good positioning by returning jockey Joel Rosario should put Deterministic in as good a spot as any coming off the sharpest race of this field. Clement remains high on Deterministic following his Gotham, telling the NYRA press office, “He’s trained very well all year long and came back very well, very straightforward. All his works have been very good and he’s a very athletic kind of horse – the most beautiful mover. He barely touches the ground and moves like a cat. He’s good mentally, too.”

Purely from a speed figure perspective, Tuscan Sky may be the only runner who can compare to Deterministic’s sharp Gotham. But he is entering a new realm after a maiden and three-horse field allowance win in his only starts. Todd Pletcher, who conditions Tuscan Sky, has won seven Wood Memorials as a trainer, only trailing Jim Fitzsimmons all time who has eight. 

A win here could be difficult, but Pletcher told NYRA Press that he likes the spot. “We felt like the Wood Memorial made sense for him. He broke his maiden over the track there and I like the mile and an eighth for him,” Pletcher said. “I’m hoping it all comes together.” 

A step up into stakes competition may prove too much, but on the surface, this could be the biggest threat to Deterministic, especially if the pace isn’t as quick as expected. 

While these two have some separation on the field based on their limited past performances, Linda Rice’s El Grande O enters with eleven starts already under his belt, giving him an advantage over the others. Even though he has been running bang-up efforts in those tries, it still appears that anything past eight furlongs may a bit out of his wheelhouse. A 10-for-11 record makes this hard worker one that cannot be ignored. He already has 30 Derby points after hitting the board in three Aqueduct points races.

The outside-breaking Uncle Heavy ran down El Grande O late to win the Grade 3 Withers by a nose in early February. Winning at this nine-furlong distance bodes well here, as do his three wins in four starts. The difficult post could throw a bit of a wrench in his plans, but since he likely will shuffle in behind the others, a clean break and some early pace to run into could give this colt winning chances. 

His trainer Robert Reid Jr. likes that Uncle Heavy is the only winner at this distance, telling NYRA press office, “He’s a natural route horse – a big, strong horse. He’s got a great head on his shoulders and he doesn’t worry about anything. He doesn’t use a lot of energy except in his races.” Bred in Pennsylvania, this Midlantic runner who started in Parx may need a top three finish to get enough Derby points to qualify, but should be up to the task.

Considering how strong the Risen Star looked compared to what this field has faced, a fourth-place finish there by the inside-breaking Resilience puts him with the top contenders. At a fair 6/1 for Bill Mott, Resilience was passed by a stronger Sierra Leone there in the stretch after sitting near the lead in that nine-furlong try. He may be one that needs a slower pace to hold on at this distance, but like Dallas Stewart’s longshot Gettysburg Address, he has at least faced better horses and could improve here.

Determinisitic may have the best race of this group in just his second try, but a few others can certainly compete here with different results largely hinging on the pace. This race has certainly produced some longshot winners in recent years. Last year’s winner Lord Miles hit the wire at 59/1, while the winner three years ago was 72/1. 

The Wood Memorial breaks at 4:07 PM EDT as the tenth race on Aqueduct’s Saturday card. 

THE PICKS 

1. #4 Deterministic (7-5) 

2. #13 Uncle Heavy (8-1)

3. #9 Tuscan Sky (4-1) 

4. #1 Resilience (6-1)

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