Kentucky Derby 2024 horse-by-horse analysis and picks
Joseph Aiello- May 1, 2024
After a competitive prep season which saw a few top Derby contenders separate themselves from the rest, we have finally reached the milestone 150th Run for the Roses. Chad Brown’s Sierra Leone and Todd Pletcher’s Fierceness appear to be the primary contenders this year, impressing in their most recent tune-ups on top of previous efforts on the Derby trail.
Top trainer Brad Cox also enters three runners, headlined by Louisiana Derby winner Catching Freedom in this 20-horse group, which offers plenty of intrigue outside of the likely favorites.
With the past two Derby paces being among the fastest ever, this year’s early fractions will be of increased importance, as top morning line choice Fierceness looks to contend for the early lead along with a flurry of longshots. Danny Gargan’s Dornoch, a full brother to last year’s Derby winner Mage, figures to add to that early pace, which could lead to yet another edition with quick four- and six-furlong times.
On the other hand, Sierra Leone has shown a powerful closing kick in his young career, and would be the primary beneficiary if the pace trend continues. Perhaps the most interesting entry, however, is the Japanese-bred Forever Young, who enters as an undefeated runner in five starts including a recent UAE Derby win. While runners from overseas preps have yet to win at Churchill, this colt puts his spotless record to the test here against the top three-year-olds in North America with as good a chance as ever to break the streak.
Over the last decade, Derby favorites have run well even if they don’t end up winning. In fact, the favorite has finished in the top four – no mean feat in a typical 20-horse field – every year since 2012. But the shortest price has failed to capture the winner’s share of the now $5 million purse since 2018.
From Orb in 2013 to Justify in 2018, the Derby saw a run of six straight favorites reaching the winner’s circle, which doesn’t include Maximum Security crossing the line first in 2019 only to be taken down. The first quarter and half mile splits will largely determine the outcome here, as the early racing strategy of those who have shown speed in their careers may be adjusted to tackle this 1 ¼-mile distance. With a good bit of speed on paper as well as a bevy of late closers, this edition of the Kentucky Derby will offer plenty of betting opportunities and optimism for the connections that reached the starting gate.
Post time for the Derby is 6:57 PM EST on Saturday, May 4th as the twelfth race on the Churchill card.
The Picks
1. #2 Sierra Leone (3-1) – Should get the right setup
2. #17 Fierceness (5-2) – Florida Derby win was a tour de force
3. #7 Honor Marie (20-1) – Improving sort owns a win over the strip
4. #4 Catching Freedom (8-1) – Must turn tables on top choice
Horse-by-horse Analysis
NOTE: Click on the tab with the horse’s name and number to see in-depth information and analysis. Click on the camera icon next to the race name to see the race replay.
| Jockey | Trainer | Points Earned |
| Luis Saez | Danny Gargan | 75 |
| 4th | Blue Grass Stakes 🎦 |
| 1st | Fountain of Youth S. 🎦 |
| 1st | Remsen 🎦 |
In Depth
- BREEDING: Good Magic – Puca, by Big Brown
- OWNER: West Paces Racing Llc, R. A. Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding Llc, Two Eight Racing Llc, and Pine Racing Stables
- LIFETIME RECORD: 6-3-2-0
- MOST RECENT RACE: 4th, Grade I Blue Grass Stakes
- THE RACING BIZ computer rating: 80.52 (5th)
- MORNING LINE ODDS: 20-1
Coming off a disappointing Blue Grass, this Danny Gargan trainee ends up with a tough inside post draw considering his clear preference is to be forwardly placed. After not breaking early last time, getting back to the lead will be vital here, as this speedy colt is the only runner to finish ahead of Sierra Leone, which he accomplished in the Remsen in December. It is possible that added distance doesn’t work to his advantage, with a likely improvement needed here to be a real win contender. Dornoch did run well in the Fountain of Youth going gate to wire two back, but controlled slower fractions against what was a weaker field.
His best chance here is to break sharply with Luis Saez and settle into modest fractions. Any pace close to as quick as the previous two years won’t bode well for this full brother of Mage, as he is yet to win from off the lead and needs to preserve energy for the added distance. Even if he isn’t the top choice to win here, two impressive prep victories and the potential for good value make him a play in exotics and one that can run much better than his odds with the right set up.
| Jockey | Trainer | Points Earned |
| Tyler Gaffalione | Chad Brown | 155 |
| 1st | Blue Grass Stakes 🎦 |
| 1st | Risen Star 🎦 |
| 2nd | Remsen 🎦 |
In Depth
- BREEDING: Gun Runner – Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon
- OWNER: Peter M. Brant, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Westerberg, and Brook T. Smith
- LIFETIME RECORD: 4-3-1-0
- MOST RECENT RACE: 1st, Grade I Blue Grass Stakes
- THE RACING BIZ computer rating: 83.24 (3rd)
- MORNING LINE ODDS: 3-1
This classy colt by Gun Runner-Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon was sold for a whopping $2.3 million as a yearling, clearly with high expectations. In just four races, including two as a two-year-old, he has shown why his price-tag was so lofty. In the barn of Chad Brown who has yet to capture a Kentucky Derby, Sierra Leone broke his maiden in November at Aqueduct from mid-pack going a mile, then immediately stepped up to the Derby trail in the Grade II Remsen. A slow break left him plenty of ground to make up, but he was still able to make a massive move into first, passing the favorite Dornoch, who then fought back to nip him at the wire.
That late sweeping move would be replicated in both the Grade II Risen Star and the Grade I Blue Grass. In those tries, Sierra Leone was able to pull away in the late stretch impressively.
It is no surprise given the pedigree and visually impressive performances in his preps that this colt enters as a top winning candidate here, but he will need the right trip to cross the line first. In recent decades, the Derby has often been favorable to closers, and recent Derby paces have lent themselves to runners who come from off the lead. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione may benefit from positioning Sierra Leone a bit closer to mid-pack than he is accustomed, but no matter the pace and set up, this is certainly one that should be making a late charge at the leaders with as good a chance as any given what he has shown over the previous months.
| Jockey | Trainer | Points earned |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Hernandez, Jr. | Kenny McPeek | 46 |
| 3rd | Arkansas Derby 🎦 |
| 1st | Southwest S. 🎦 |
| 5th | Smarty Jones S. 🎦 |
In Depth
- BREEDING: Goldencents – Ma’am, by Colonel John
- OWNER: Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing Llc, and Valley View Farm Llc
- LIFETIME RECORD: 6-2-1-1
- MOST RECENT RACE: 3rd, Grade I Arkansas Derby
- THE RACING BIZ computer rating: 73.92 (9th)
- MORNING LINE ODDS: 20-1
Mystik Dan made it into this field largely due to his dominant eight-length win in Oaklawn’s Grade 3 Southwest Stakes in February, but he hasn’t quite had a performance that rivals that one in any of his other five starts. Maybe that was a one-off effort where he took advantage of a muddy surface and a rail-skimming trip, but it compares very favorably to some of the best races of anyone in this field.
A distant third in the Arkansas Derby last time out doesn’t help his case, and there will likely need to be improvement for him to have a real chance here. With his running style, it is more likely that Brian Hernandez positions him mid-pack, so this could be one to take advantage of a fast early pace if it occurs. At 20/1 morning line and likely to be an even longer price than that, an exotics play isn’t off the table for this colt, especially if there is some rain or a softer surface on Saturday.
| Jockey | Trainer | Points earned |
|---|---|---|
| Flavien Prat | Brad Cox | 125 |
| 1st | Louisiana Derby 🎦 |
| 3rd | Risen Star 🎦 |
| 1st | Smarty Jones S. 🎦 |
In Depth
- BREEDING: Constitution – Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile
- OWNER: Albaugh Family Stables Llc
- LIFETIME RECORD: 5-3-0-1
- MOST RECENT RACE: 1st, Grade II Louisiana Derby
- THE RACING BIZ computer rating: 74.68 (8th)
- MORNING LINE ODDS: 8-1
A winner of the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn on New Year’s Day, the top of the three Brad Cox trainees has shown improvement into the spring, most recently capturing the Grade II Louisiana Derby. Preceding that victory was the Risen Star where this colt closed well, but wasn’t a match for the turn of foot from Sierra Leone.
In the final Fair Ground’s prep, Catching Freedom took a clear step forward to run his best race to date, this time rallying from last to pass Track Phantom and win by a length. With the same connections as last year’s Derby post time favorite (and Top Midlantic-bred) Angel of Empire, who ended up closing into third, this colt could be in a similar boat in terms of running style and affinity for distance. With Angel last year, Flavian Prat left a little too much ground for him to pick up, and will need to avoid a similar situation with this likely deep closer.
While it would be tough to put him quite on the level of Sierra Leone as a late finisher, this is still one that cannot be ignored and could just be peaking at the right time with a good chance to close into the money here.
| Jockey | Trainer | Points earned |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ortiz | Saffie Joseph Jr. | 50 |
| 2nd | Florida Derby 🎦 |
In Depth
- BREEDING: Catalina Cruiser – One Show Only, by Distorted Humor
- OWNER: Tami Bobo, Julie Davies, and George Isaacs
- LIFETIME RECORD: 3-1-2-0
- MOST RECENT RACE: 2nd, Grade I Florida Derby
- THE RACING BIZ computer rating: 56.27 (18th)
- MORNING LINE ODDS:
Finished a distant second in the Florida Derby to Fierceness in his only stakes race in three tries, making it difficult to put this one in the mix as a true win contender. Still, he was able to hang on for place against the Derby favorite – albeit 13 behind him – and has trended upwards in speed figures in his three starts. That 13-length gap to Fierceness last time out might represent his gap with a few in this field at the moment unless he takes a major step forward.
It is likely that Jose Ortiz will keep this one back a bit after having him off the lead at Gulfstream, opting for a more mid-pack trip this time around. Perhaps that gives this longshot the best opportunity to finish among the top five in this group, but a win or top finish is unrealistic given a more normal pace scenario than in recent years.
| Jockey | Trainer | Points earned |
|---|---|---|
| Keith Asmussen | D. Wayne Lukas | 65 |
| 2nd | Arkansas Derby 🎦 |
| 7th | Rebel S. 🎦 |
| 2nd | Southwest S. 🎦 |
| 2nd | Smarty Jones S. 🎦 |
| 6th | Breeders’ Futurity |
In Depth
- BREEDING: Justify – Irish Lights (AUS), by Fastnet Rock (AUS)
- OWNER: Bc Stables Llc
- LIFETIME RECORD: 11-2-4-1
- MOST RECENT RACE: 2nd, Grade I Arkansas Derby
- THE RACING BIZ computer rating: 71.79 (11th)
- MORNING LINE ODDS: 20-1
This scrappy D. Wayne Lukas trainee clearly just ran his best race to date in the Arkansas Derby where he nabbed second behind Bob Baffert’s Muth. As the most heavily raced in this field with 11 starts, Just Steel didn’t have as much success going past eight furlongs until his most recent, where he stuck with it to be beaten two lengths. It is possible he is still a bit distance limited and just got a perfect trip that time around, but that could be one to build on as he adds another furlong in this classic distance.
Even then, this one remains a longshot winner who doesn’t have the resume of the top group and probably isn’t good enough to find himself in the winner’s circle here. Just Steel should be mid-pack or a bit closer to the lead, making a slower pace vital to his being able to finish in the superfecta. Maybe one that can be played on the bottom of some exotics if the value is right, but still needs plenty to go his way to finish ahead of more talented runners.
| Jockey | Trainer | Points earned |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Curtis | Whit Beckman | 65 |
| 2nd | Louisiana Derby 🎦 |
| 5th | Risen Star 🎦 |
| 1st | Kentucky Jockey Club 🎦 |
In Depth
- BREEDING: Honor Code – Dame Marie, by Smart Strike
- OWNER: Ribble Farms Llc
- LIFETIME RECORD: 5-2-2-0
- MOST RECENT RACE: 2nd, Grade II Louisiana Derby
- THE RACING BIZ computer rating: 71.74 (12th)
- MORNING LINE ODDS: 20-1
An intriguing runner who won the Kentucky Jockey Club over the strip in November, this colt has been showing improvement in three straight Grade II tries as a late closer. Rallying from near the rear into second in the Louisiana Derby showed the type of ground he could gain. Ultimately, Catching Freedom was better that day, but Honor Marie has been improving consistently, clearly set up to run longer distances.
If he can avoid the usual traffic trouble in a larger field, this is one that can be very dangerous if Fierceness and the other leaders do not control a softer pace. At what should be good value, Honor Marie is a good play to end up in exotics, and one with some winning chances as long as Ben Curtis keeps him close enough to take advantage of his stamina and late turn of foot.
While he can’t be put ahead of the top late finishers in here such as Sierra Leone, Honor Marie has as good a chance as any if the first half mile is anything close to what it has been the past two years.
| Jockey | Trainer | Points earned |
|---|---|---|
| Florent Geroux | Brad Cox | 75 |
| 2nd | Blue Grass Stakes 🎦 |
| 2nd | Gotham S. 🎦 |
In Depth
- BREEDING: Justify – Touching Beauty, by Tapit
- OWNER: Qatar Racing Llc, Resolute Racing, and Marc Detampel
- LIFETIME RECORD: 3-1-2-0
- MOST RECENT RACE: 2nd, Grade I Blue Grass Stakes
- THE RACING BIZ computer rating: 84.43 (2nd)
- MORNING LINE ODDS: 10-1
The second choice of the Brad Cox trio, this colt has only raced three times and only has a maiden win in his debut. Clearly, the potential of this Justify colt, who cost $300,000 as a two-year-old, and his win-often connections connections will keep him at a lower price, even without a prep win.
Even in defeat in the Blue Grass, Just a Touch ran well, pressing a quick pace, while still able to finish clear for the place. How he factors into the pace as well as how quickly the others go for the first mile could be the determining factor to this colt’s performance. A win here is asking a lot considering his lack of experience and stakes victories, as more seasoning may be needed before stepping up into a larger field of this caliber.
If the pace is slower than expected, Just a Touch could hold on in the top four, but otherwise would need to show a different running style to be successful here.
ENCINO IS SCRATCHED FROM THE KENTUCKY DERBY.
| Jockey | Trainer | Points earned |
|---|---|---|
| Axel Concepcion | Brad Cox | 40 |
| 1st | Lexington 🎦 |
| 1st | John Battaglia Memorial 🎦 |
| Jockey | Trainer | Points earned |
|---|---|---|
| Kazushi Kimura | Daisuke Takayanagi | 40 |
| 1st | Fukuryu S. 🎦 |
In Depth
- BREEDING: Copano Rickey (JPN) – T O Rachel (JPN), by King Kamehameha (JPN)
- OWNER: Tomoya Ozasa
- LIFETIME RECORD: 2-2-0-0
- MOST RECENT RACE: 1st, Fukuryu Stakes
- THE RACING BIZ computer rating: 55.33 (19th)
- MORNING LINE ODDS: 30-1
The most lightly-raced runner in this field with only two starts, the Japanese bred T O Password could be the main wild card here as it pertains to the early pace. T O Password was prominent all the way around in his nine-furlong career debut in January, and he led throughout in his Fukuryu Stakes victory in Japan which got him into this field.
Does he have the kind of early speed the Derby is likely to demand of forwardly-placed runners? That’s an open question, and how he factors into the early goings could make or break the performances of the multitude of runners in this field who are pace-dependent.
He appears unlikely to be able to hang on here if he does go to or near the lead, as he was running out of energy in the nine-furlong Fukuryu despite finishing slowly. It is always possible his connections go for a different strategy, or he simply doesn’t have the speed to pressure any of the top front runners here. A major improvement would be necessary to finish in the top grouping even if the set up is right for this colt.
| Jockey | Trainer | Points earned |
|---|---|---|
| Ryusei Sakai | Yoshito Yahagi | 100 |
| 1st | UAE Derby 🎦 |
| 1st | Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun 🎦 |
In Depth
- BREEDING: Real Steel (JPN) – Forever Darling, by Congrats
- OWNER: Susumu Fujita
- LIFETIME RECORD: 5-5-0-0
- MOST RECENT RACE: 1st, Grade II UAE Derby
- THE RACING BIZ computer rating: 73.70 (10th)
- MORNING LINE ODDS: 10-1
Entering as the undefeated winner of the UAE Derby, this Japanese-bred colt has plenty of upside as one with a strong closing kick who should easily get the distance. His last three victories were all visually impressive, even if it is tough to gauge the level of competition he saw in those contests.
A UAE Derby winner has yet to win at Churchill, with the majority of runners not even cracking the top five. His turn of foot is undeniable, but others here may have just as devastating late charges, while also having more experience against top competition. Forever Young will likely also see the fastest early pace he has been a part of in his career here, even if he sits well behind the lead.
This colt needs to be considered as one that has winning chances. The perfect record and ease of victory in the UAE put him ahead of some less accomplished longshots, but improvement and the right pace set up are still necessary for this one to take home Japan’s first Run for the Roses.
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| Jockey | Trainer | Points earned |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Rosario | Steve Asmussen | 70 |
| 4th | Louisiana Derby 🎦 |
| 2nd | Risen Star 🎦 |
| 1st | Lecomte S. 🎦 |
| 1st | Gun Runner S. 🎦 |
In Depth
- BREEDING: Quality Road – Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief
- OWNER: L and N Racing Llc, Clark O. Brewster, Jerry Caroom, and Breeze Easy Llc
- LIFETIME RECORD: 7-3-2-1
- MOST RECENT RACE: 4th, Grade II Louisiana Derby
- THE RACING BIZ computer rating: 67.08 (13th)
- MORNING LINE ODDS: 20-1
After winning the Gun Runner and Lecomte, this $500,000 Steve Asmussen trainee appeared to be on a similar path to Epicenter from two years ago in mostly dominating the Fair Grounds preps. Then he controlled a slower pace in the Grade II Risen Star, only to be run down by Sierra Leone in the stretch. In the Louisiana Derby, it was much the same, this time controlling modest fractions but unable to hold on in the stretch, finishing fourth.
Considering how he appeared to have sound trips and worsened with added distance and increased competition, picking him to win here doesn’t seem to be the best choice. If his connections opt to be aggressive with Dornoch, Fierceness and a few others who will look to break, it is likely that he won’t gain the same control as he had in previous tries, nor will the fractions be as soft.
Track Phantom has yet to run from mid pack, but his best shot at a strong finish could be finishing from slightly off the lead. If he is capable of that strategic change, a solid finish could be possible, even if winning here would require an unlikely scenario.
| Jockey | Trainer | Points earned |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Castanon | Larry Demeritte | 67 |
| 2nd | Jeff Ruby Steaks 🎦 |
| 3rd | Sam F. Davis S. 🎦 |
| 5th | Breeders’ Futurity 🎦 |
| 1st | Iroquois S. 🎦 |
In Depth
- BREEDING: Exaggerator – Mo Wicked, by Uncle Mo
- OWNER: Harry L Veruchi
- LIFETIME RECORD: 10-2-5-1
- MOST RECENT RACE: 2nd, Grade III Jeff Ruby Steaks
- THE RACING BIZ computer rating: 46.29 (21st)
- MORNING LINE ODDS: 50-1
This grey colt by Exaggerator got into this field by finishing second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, having run the second-most races of anyone in this field with 10. Distance may be an issue for West Saratoga, who has done most of his running at eight furlongs and under, typically fading in the stretch runs of his route tries.
With no standout performance since his Iroquois win at Churchill in September, it is tough to make a case for him to be overly competitive in this spot. The speed figures from his races don’t compare well with the rest of the field here, and he hasn’t shown enough improvement to give an indication that he will step forward enough to compete.
His main positive is that he ran his best effort to date over this dirt course, but even then took advantage of wicked early fractions to pounce on the leaders. He’ll need some things to happen to contend here.
| Jockey | Trainer | Points earned |
|---|---|---|
| Umberto Rispoli | Michael McCarthy | 100 |
| 1st | Jeff Ruby Steaks 🎦 |
In Depth
- BREEDING: Oscar Performance – Dream Fuhrever, by Langfuhr
- OWNER: Amerman Racing Llc
- LIFETIME RECORD: 6-5-0-0
- MOST RECENT RACE: 1st, Grade III Jeff Ruby Steaks
- THE RACING BIZ computer rating: 59.27 (16th)
- MORNING LINE ODDS: 30-1
A winner of three graded races which leads this field, this colt has only won on turf and synthetic surfaces, most recently picking up the Grade III Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park. With a five for six career record, there appear to only be positives for Endlessly talent-wise.
Even with little pace to close into in the Jeff Ruby, Endlessly came from seventh to win by four lengths while drawing away from the others in the stretch. The Jeff Ruby has improved as a prep in recent years, with 2023 Derby runner-up Two Phil’s capturing it last year and 2022 Derby winner Rich Strike finishing well in this prep two years back. This year’s field didn’t appear strong on the surface, which might be the only other knock on Endlessly.
The main question for Endlessly, of course, is how he will respond to racing on dirt for the first time, and it’s worth noting that his trainer, Michael McCarthy, has seemed distinctly cool to the idea of racing here.
Surely the price should be right, and a little extra pace here could help Endlessly be a bigger factor late as he hasn’t had perfect setups in his last two tries but simply outclassed his opponents.
| Jockey | Trainer | Points earned |
|---|---|---|
| Irad Ortiz, Jr. | Chad Brown | 60 |
| 1st | Tampa Bay Derby 🎦 |
| 2nd | Holy Bull S. 🎦 |
| 7th | Remsen 🎦 |
In Depth
- BREEDING: Practical Joke – Goods and Services, by Paynter
- OWNER: Klaravich Stables Inc
- LIFETIME RECORD: 5-2-1-0
- MOST RECENT RACE: 1st, Grade III Tampa Bay Derby
- THE RACING BIZ computer rating: 59.26 (17th)
- MORNING LINE ODDS: 30-1
The runner in this group coming off the longest layoff, Domestic Product narrowly won the Tampa Derby in a mad dash to the wire after slow early fractions in his most recent start – back on March 9. A repeat of that try wouldn’t be good enough to win here, but these connections, with Irad Ortiz, in the irons give this longshot a chance to run better than his price.
He’s chased very slow paces in the Tampa Derby and Holy Bull, his only three-year-old tries, which will likely not be repeated here. That might allow him to unleash an even more formidable late kick – or leave him too much to do late. Domestic Product also may end up being better suited going eight furlongs being sired by Practical Joke, since his offspring are better sprinter-miler types than classic routers.
Maybe he gets the right set up here, but this one still feels a notch below the top win contenders and would need to take a step forward to hit the board.
| Jockey | Trainer | Points earned |
|---|---|---|
| Emisael Jaramillo | Victor Barboza Jr. | 40 |
| 3rd | Florida Derby 🎦 |
| 3rd | Tampa Bay Derby 🎦 |
In Depth
- BREEDING: Uncle Mo – Lilies So Fair, by Giant’s Causeway
- OWNER: Granpollo Stable
- LIFETIME RECORD: 6-2-0-4
- MOST RECENT RACE: 3rd, Grade I Florida Derby
- THE RACING BIZ computer rating: 76.31 (7th)
- MORNING LINE ODDS: 50-1
Beginning his racing career on synthetic and then turf, this colt was showing promise with a close third in the Grade III Tampa Derby in early March. Looking back at the effort doesn’t compare favorably to the best races and preps in this group, as the pace was extremely slow which allowed for this longshot to conserve energy for a late stretch run; on the other hand, they did come home in under 30 seconds for the final 5/16ths of a mile.
Coming back out in the Grade I Florida Derby and picking up a show finish got him into this field, but he finished third by 16 lengths behind the runaway winner Fierceness (and a couple behind Catalytic). The speed figures don’t put him in the same category as the top runners, and his only hope to hold on for a solid finish would be another slow pace similar to Tampa. Although there is certainly talent here for this colt by Uncle Mo to improve later this year, this doesn’t appear to be the distance or spot for him to have winning chances.
| Jockey | Trainer | Points earned |
|---|---|---|
| John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | 136 |
| 1st | Florida Derby 🎦 |
| 3rd | Holy Bull S. 🎦 |
| 1st | Breeders’ Cup Juvenile 🎦 |
| 7th | Champagne S. 🎦 |
In Depth
- BREEDING: City of Light – Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty
- OWNER: Repole Stable
- LIFETIME RECORD: 5-3-0-1
- MOST RECENT RACE: 1st, Grade I Florida Derby
- THE RACING BIZ computer rating: 85.09 (1st)
- MORNING LINE ODDS: 5-2
Todd Pletcher’s Fierceness has been a top Derby contender since the fall when he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by six lengths in what is still one of the best races in this field. That win followed a disappointing Grade I Champagne in October, when he finished up the track at 3-5 odds following a dominant 11-length win in his debut at Saratoga.
So far in five starts, inconsistency has been his major flaw. Favored in every start but the Juvenile, he has been beaten at odds of 3-5 (in the Champagne) and 1-5 in February’s Holy Bull to kick off his sophomore campaign. Fierceness has yet to win back-to-back tries, but his recent prep in the Florida Derby showed why he may have the highest ceiling of anyone here. Facing a weaker Florida Derby field than a few of the other preps might dampen his performance, but a gate-to-wire win by a dominant 13 ½ lengths (!) once again flashed this colt’s upside with the right trip. He earned a 110 Beyer speed figure that day that is the fastest of any three-year-old to date this year, and that and his 105 in the Juvenile are the two highest figs of any horse in this race.
Getting to the lead here may end up being important for Fierceness, as he and his connections should be hoping for a bit more modest fractions than the last two years, since the only thing that may derail him here is a torrid pace. Distance shouldn’t be an issue, as he had plenty left in the tank in Florida going nine furlongs, and young sire CIty of Light has shown the ability to get horses who can thrive at a route of ground. As long as he breaks sharply away from this outer post, there is no reason to believe that anyone has better winning chances. Repole Stable and Todd Pletcher are also looking for some redemption from last year as their Derby favorite and Florida Derby winner Forte was not able to reach the starting gate at Churchill. They now find themselves in a similar spot with an arguably even more talented sophomore..
| Jockey | Trainer | Points earned |
|---|---|---|
| Antonio Fresu | Phil D’Amato | 125 |
| 1st | Santa Anita Derby 🎦 |
| 1st | Sunland Derby 🎦 |
| 2nd | Los Alamitos Futurity 🎦 |
In Depth
- BREEDING: Ghostzapper – Spectator, by Jimmy Creed
- OWNER: Eric M. Waller and Sharon Waller
- LIFETIME RECORD: 6-3-3-0
- MOST RECENT RACE: 1st, Grade I Santa Anita Derby
- THE RACING BIZ computer rating: 81.29 (4th)
- MORNING LINE ODDS: 20-1
This colt has never finished worse than second in six tries, most recently capturing the Grade I Santa Anita Derby as the second choice. Even though that appeared to be a lesser field, Stronghold was still able to hold off Baffert’s Imagination in the stretch; that runner was coming off a graded stakes win.
As he has moved up in class and competition, Stronghold has continued to trend in the right direction, even after starting strong as a two-year-old. There would still need to be some more improvement to be considered with the top grouping here, as he did take advantage of a quicker pace last time that took the starch out of Imagination, who was his main rival. An extra furlong also probably isn’t advantageous for this D’Amato trainee, so the trip and positioning from first time Derby rider Antonio Fresu will be of utmost importance.
It does help Stronghold’s case that he broke his maiden at Churchill, and can run well here again sitting off a slower pace as a potential play on the bottom of superfectas.
| Jockey | Trainer | Points earned |
|---|---|---|
| Junior Alvarado | Bill Mott | 110 |
| 1st | Wood Memorial 🎦 |
| 4th | Risen Star 🎦 |
In Depth
- BREEDING: Into Mischief – Meadowsweet, by Smart Strike
- OWNER: Emily Bushnell and Ric Waldman
- LIFETIME RECORD: 6-2-1-1
- MOST RECENT RACE: 1st, Grade II Wood Memorial
- THE RACING BIZ computer rating: 61.46 (15th)
- MORNING LINE ODDS: 20-1
The winner of the Grade II Wood Memorial, Resilience enters with some intrigue after putting forth his best effort in that Aqueduct prep. Unfortunately, the Wood Memorial has been one of the weaker prep races in recent years, and this year doesn’t appear to be an exception. A lesser field could be the primary reason for his performance in the Wood, as Resilience came out of the Grade II Risen Star where he finished fourth behind Sierra Leone, Track Phantom, and Catching Freedom.
It makes sense then that he would improve facing less accomplished runners than those next time out, which puts him in a difficult spot here. A stalking trip is most likely for Resilience, so a slower pace would help this colt by Into Mischief be able to hang on for a strong finish. While a win isn’t expected here, holding on for fourth or better could be possible given the right trip.
| Jockey | Trainer | Points earned |
|---|---|---|
| Frankie Dettori | Danny Gargan | 50 |
| 2nd | Wood Memorial 🎦 |
| 8th | Withers S. 🎦 |
In Depth
- BREEDING: Good Magic – You Cheated, by Colonel John
- OWNER: West Paces Racing Llc, Danny Gargan, and GMP Stables Llc
- LIFETIME RECORD: 5-1-1-1
- MOST RECENT RACE: 2nd, Grade II Wood Memorial
- THE RACING BIZ computer rating: 51.33 (20th)
- MORNING LINE ODDS: 50-1
After breaking his maiden in his fourth try, Society Man snuck into the Derby field with a second place finish in the Wood Memorial at odds of over 100/1 as four of the top six were 30-1 or higher.
Even showing some improvement in his last two races, there would need to be a major step forward here to contend. The Wood Memorial field was less experienced as a whole and was the primary factor for a strong finish by this other Danny Gargan entry (along with #1 Dornoch). With the tougher outside post, the odds look to be stacked against Society Man, as he will need to navigate the larger field as a likely mid-pack closer. Another torrid Derby pace could be the only thing that helps this longshot finish strong in the stretch, but there are better options in this group who look a bit further ahead in their racing development entering this challenge.
EPIC RIDE WILL RUN IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY.
| Jockey | Trainer | Points earned |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Beschizza | John Ennis | 35 |
| 3rd | Blue Grass Stakes 🎦 |
| 2nd | John Battaglia Memorial 🎦 |
In Depth
- BREEDING: Blame – Pick a Time, by Gio Ponti
- OWNER: Welch Racing Llc
- LIFETIME RECORD: 5-2-2-1
- MOST RECENT RACE: 3rd, Grade I Blue Grass Stakes
- THE RACING BIZ computer rating: 78.43 (6th)
- MORNING LINE ODDS: 30-1
Unable to win the John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway in March against Encino as the favorite, this colt appeared to have fallen off the Derby trail completely. Confidence from his trainer John Ennis pushed him into the Grade I Blue Grass for his first natural dirt race, where he was able to hold on for third in a valiant effort at over 50/1. Considering that he was up on a quick pace, holding for third in that field was a good accomplishment, even if it wasn’t enough to get him into the top 20 point-getters for the Derby.
Mo matter, though: the scratch of Encino allows Epic Ride to draw win.
A win seems highly unlikely. With his five starts all being run stalking the lead, continuing that strategy here won’t be conducive to holding on for a strong finish. Still, he looks to be a good colt who would certainly be better than his post time odds would indicate, and one that can have a good racing career when he finds his ideal race.
| Jockey | Trainer | Points earned |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Talamo | Jeff Engler | 14 |
| 5th | Blue Grass Stakes 🎦 |
| 4th | John Battaglia Memorial 🎦 |
In Depth
- BREEDING: Blofeld – Union Way, by Union Rags
- OWNER: Average Joe Racing Stables Ltd. and Dan Wells
- LIFETIME RECORD: 12-1-1-3
- MOST RECENT RACE: 5th, Grade I Blue Grass Stakes
- THE RACING BIZ computer rating: 64.70 (14th)
- MORNING LINE ODDS: 50-1
A late shocker to get also eligible status with only 14 Derby points, this colt has won one race in twelve tries, which was his maiden in start five. On the very off chance he gets into the field here, he would surpass Just Steel as the most experienced runner of the bunch.
At ridiculous odds of over 180/1 in the Blue Grass, Mugatu was able to close into fifth primarily due to passing tiring horses in the stretch. He did the same in the Battaglia, still losing by a wide margin. Even if distance wouldn’t be an issue here, his only way to have a respectable finish would be a similar pace scenario to two years ago when Rich Strike drew into the field and took advantage of fatigued runners late.
In the incredibly unlikely scenario that those things happen, Mugatu would be far more unlikely than Rich Strike as a winner here, and likely wouldn’t finish in the top ten.
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