Experts’ Kentucky Derby undercard stakes picks
Today’s Kentucky Derby day card has plenty of stakes action before the big race. We asked our experts to share their selections.
The lengthy roster of added-money events includes three other Grade 1 events, along with four Grade 2 events. So there are plenty of plays available and plenty of ways to lose invest your money. Where do our experts land?
Read on – and good luck!
RACE 6: GRADE 1 DERBY CITY DISTAFF
A seven-furlong test for older fillies and mares, the Derby City Distaff has a couple of runners familiar to Midlantic racing fans, as Alva Starr (5-2) — last-out winner of the G1 Madison who earned her first stakes win in Delaware Park’s Dashing Beauty last July — squares off with Madison runner-up Vahva (3-1), who won last August’s G3 Charles Town Oaks.
Our group consensus:
- #10 Vahva
- #7 Alva Starr
- #9 Red Carpet Ready
Eric Rubin | Ted Black | Derby Bill Watson | John Piassek | Nick Hahn | Gary Quill | |
1 | 10. Vahva | 10. Vahva | 9. Red Carpet Ready | 7. Alva Starr | 10. Vahva | 7. Alva Starr |
2 | 3. Flying Connection | 7. Alva Starr | 7. Alva Starr | 10. Vahva | 7. Alva Starr | 10. Vahva |
3 | 7. Alva Starr | 1. Three Witches | 10. Vahva | 5. Spirit Wind | 1. Three Witches | 3. Flying Connection |
RACE 7: GRADE 2 DISTAFF TURF MILE
The Distaff Turf Mile is a pretty wide-open affair: in fact, nine of the 12 entrants appeared at least once in our experts’ picks. Five received at least one first-place vote.
Or maybe it’s not that complicated at all; maybe it’s just the Chad Brown show. The ace trainer, who’ll seek his first Kentucky Derby win later on the card, has three runners in here, and they are our experts’ top three selections. We’re especially eager to see British import Coppice, who won four times in England albeit mostly against modest company. The consensus:
- #11 Coppice
- #6 Delahaye
- #3 Chili Flag
Eric Rubin | Ted Black | Derby Bill Watson | John Piassek | Nick Hahn | Gary Quill | |
1 | 11. Coppice | 1. Ag Bullet | 11. Coppice | 3. Chili Flag | 6. Delahaye | 12. Mission of Joy |
2 | 10. Infinite Diamond | 11. Coppice | 6. Delahaye | 6. Delahaye | 3. Chili Flag | 7. Evvie Jets |
3 | 7. Evvie Jets | 8. Heavenly Sunday | 3. Chili Flag | 10. Infinite Diamond | 12. Mission of Joy | 5. Cairo Consort |
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RACE 8: GRADE 2 PAY DAY MILE
The former Derby Trial ceased to be a useful Derby prep years ago but has been reborn as annually an interesting test for horses who are either a little bit distance-limited or not quite ready for the run for the roses.
A dozen runners are slated to face the starter, with Blue Grass Stakes sixth-place finisher Top Conor the 5-2 morning line favorite and Nash (3-1), who recently won the Hot Springs Stakes, the second choice. One intriguing entrant: Vlahos (8-1), who was a scintillating debut winner at Santa Anita and makes the cross-country trek for his second start. The group’s consensus:
- #12 Nash
- #5 Seize the Grey
- #7 Who Dey/#2 Beeline (tie)
Eric Rubin | Ted Black | Derby Bill Watson | John Piassek | Nick Hahn | Gary Quill | |
1 | 7. Who Dey | 12. Nash | 2. Beeline | 8. Top Conor | 12. Nash | 5. Seize the Grey |
2 | 5. Seize the Grey | 11. Vlahos | 12. Nash | 2. Beeline | 5. Seize the Grey | 7. Who Dey |
3 | 9. Frosty Indulgence | 8. Top Conor | 11. Vlahos | 12. Nash | 1. Carbone | 12. Nash |
RACE 9: GRADE 2 AMERICAN TURF
This grass test for sophomores lookts to be another wide-open affair. The 7-2 morning line favorite is the Charlie Appleby-trained Legend of Time, who will make his first North American start after dominating rivals in Dubai. The only blemish on his five-start career is an ok fifth-place finish in last year’s Group 3 Tattersall at Newmarket.
Other runners that may offer interest include last-out G3 Transylvania winner Neat, who scored at 13-1; Cugino (10-1), beaten a nose in that spot; Triple Crown trail refugee Agate Road (5-1); and 2-for-2 Set (10-1). The group consensus:
- #5 Legend of Time
- #11 Cugino
- #14 Agate Road
Eric Rubin | Ted Black | Derby Bill Watson | John Piassek | Nick Hahn | Gary Quill | |
1 | 11. Cugino | 5. Legend of Time | 5. Legend of Time | 5. Legend of Time | 11. Cugino | 13. Can Group |
2 | 1. Twirling Point | 10. Set | 14. Agate Road | 10. Set | 14. Agate Road | 14. Agate Road |
3 | 7. Stay Hot | 9. Noted | 9. Noted | 14. Agate Road | 12. Abrumar | 6. Neat |
RACE 10: GRADE 1 CHURCHILL DOWNS
The morning line favorite in this seven-furlong test for older runners is 2022 Kentucky Derby entrant Zozos (3-1). The Brad Cox trainee owns two wins over the strip, always a plus at Churchill Downs, including a Grade 3 win in the Ack Ack. The class of the field is probably the five-year-old Hoist the Gold, a two-time Grade 2 winner who took last December’s G2 Cigar Mile at Aqueduct impressively with a 109 Beyer Speed Figure. His last two aren’t good, but it appears nine furlongs is beyond his scope.
Two others worth a mention are the Grade 3-winning veteran Tejano Twist (4-1) and the improving, lightly-raced Bo Cruz (10-1), who earned his first graded win (in just seven career starts) in the Commonwealth at this past Keeneland meet. The group consensus:
- #3 Bo Cruz
- #2 Tejano Twist
- #9 Three Technique
Eric Rubin | Ted Black | Derby Bill Watson | John Piassek | Nick Hahn | Gary Quill | |
1 | 9. Three Technique | 3. Bo Cruz | 2. Tejano Twist | 11. Hoist the Gold | 3. Bo Cruz | 9. Three Technique |
2 | 3. Bo Cruz | 4. Mr. Wireless | 4. Mr. Wireless | 10. Gun Pilot | 2. Tejano Twist | 2. Tejano Twist |
3 | 11. Hoist the Gold | 11. Hoist the Gold | 7. Track Mate | 7. Track Mate | 6. Zozos | 11. Hoist the Gold |
RACE 11: GRADE 1 TURF CLASSIC
Trainer Charlie Appleby could strike again in this turf contest with morning line favorite Naval Power (7-2). The Godolphin runner arrives off a good second in the G1 Maker’s Mark Mile and should appreciate the added ground in this spot; he’s 2-for-2 at nine furlongs. Also in the field is old friend Integration (5-1), who won last summer’s G3 Virginia Derby impressively in just his second career start. Classwise, don’t sleep on Program Trading (9-2), who won two Grade 1 races last year as a sophomore. The group consensus:
- #11 Naval Power
- #1 Integration
- #5 Program Trading
Eric Rubin | Ted Black | Derby Bill Watson | John Piassek | Nick Hahn | Gary Quill | |
1 | 11. Naval Power | 11. Naval Power | 4. Far Bridge | 6. I’m Very Busy | 1. Integration | 9. Never Explain |
2 | 1. Integration | 6. I’m Very Busy | 1. Integration | 5. Program Trading | 5. Program Trading | 5. Program Trading |
3 | 4. Far Bridge | 5. Program Trading | 11. Naval Power | 7. Webslinger | 4. Far Bridge | 7. Webslinger |
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