Kentucky Oaks picks and analysis
The Biz- May 3, 2024
Picks and analysis for today’s card from Churchill Downs, featuring the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks.
- DATE: May 3, 2024
- RACES ON CARD: 13
- KEY RACE: Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks (11th); also return of champion mare Idiomatic, champion 3yo filly Pretty Mischievous, champion 2yo filly Just F Y I, etc.
RACE 5 – G1 La Troienne
| 4. Idiomatic | Defending champion mare after stellar 2023 campaign that really got rolling in the Delaware Handicap; makes first start of the year, but that’s true of the major players here; could be controlling speed but doesn’t need the lead |
| 5. Pretty Mischievous | Won three G1 races including Kentucky Oaks to earn 2023 champion 3yo filly honors |
| 7. Dorth Vader | Kept the right company last year and wasn’t far off #5 in two graded events; has speed and drawn well outside |
RACE 6 – G3 Unbridled Sidney
| 5. Elm Drive | First try this short was a good one last out in the G3 Giant’s Causeway; no shame in losing to PA-bred Roses for Debra, who’s 5-for-5 against fillies on turf |
| 10. Tony Ann | Keeps churning out good races, including G2 win two back; even the defeat in the BC Turf Sprint against the boys wasn’t bad |
| 2. Ova Charged | Absolutely dominated in a pair of minor stakes at the Fair Grounds last two and gets significant class test here; should have the early lead and might just run ’em off their feet |
RACE 7 – G2 Alysheba
| 3. First Mission | Yup, the computer likes the favorite, but it also sees this as a race where any of five could win, so be a bit cautious if this one gets bet down too much; dominated G3 rivals in last, and runner-up came back to be second in another G3 at Keeneland; probably aiming at a stalk-and-pounce type of trip |
| 5. Il Miracolo | Should be forwardly placed early and pretty much always runs his race; dead game in last |
| 7. Tapit Trice | G1 Blue Grass winner makes first start since third-place finish in the Travers last August; plenty of class and a strong work tab are both positives, but long layoff and likelihood that bigger game is targeted might suggest hedging |
RACE 8 – G3 Modesty
| 2. Aspen Grove | Didn’t miss by much in useful season bow and already has a G1 win in her pocket; owns right to improve |
| 8. Be Your Best | Newly minted four-year-old’s first against older was just ok but still has improvement in front of her; has kept exclusively G1 and G2 company in last 10 prior to this |
| 5. Mouffy | Never worse than second in four turf tries; two back runner-up effort better than it seems, as this one suffered a pretty disastrous trip (albeit in part of her own making) |
RACE 9 – G2 Eight Belles
| 7. Denim and Pearls | Can she repeat that last? If so, she’s a winner; if not, she’ll burn a lot of dollars; drawn well and may sit a good trip |
| 2. All Things Go | The Cox trainees (#7 and #1) may be a cut above, but this miss could spice things up; cutback in distance appears a positive, and she was up against it in last after breaking slowly; made a promising middle move before emptying out |
| 1. Impel | Nothing wrong with Ashland try in last when tiring late; has never been far back, and inside draw may force her to go in a race in which others appear quicker away |
RACE 10 – G2 Edgewood
| 9. Hard to Justify | Undefeated as a 2yo, BC Juvenile Fillies Turf winner makes season debut here for top trainer Chad Brown; if you want to beat her, now’s a good time, as it’s her first of the year, but she figures (again) to sit a good trip just off less accomplished speed types and well ahead of other major contenders |
| 4. Buchu | Not much to fault on her resume – she was a couple behind top choice in Breeders’ Cup and has two graded wins to her credit; benefited from fast early pace in last to win and may not get that here |
| 12. Simply in Front | If Jose Ortiz can work out a trip, she’ll be coming late — probably too late to get the winner’s share |
RACE 11 – G1 Kentucky Oaks
| 11. Ways and Means | Troubled runner-up effort in G2 Gulfstream Oaks a useful prep and good return to action after being away since finishing second in the G1 Spinaway at the Spa; shows two bullet moves since, including speedy half-mile over this strip; has been odds-on in all three prior starts but should be a square price in this one |
| 13. Just F Y I | Last year’s 2yo filly champ suffered first career defeat when second after wide journey in the Ashland; shows three works since, and all signs point to her being ready to go |
| 14. Leslie’s Rose | $1.1 million yearling delivered on that promise in sharp Ashland score in first try around two turns; a repeat puts her right there |
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