The scratch of Preakness favorite Muth on Wednesday elevates the Kentucky Derby winner, Mystik Dan to morning line favorite status. Handicappers see the scratch as significant to raising his chances to continue his Triple Crown quest. 

However, if you are looking for a Preakness play, there is an emerging Preakness trend that could provide value.

The last four Preakness winners did not start in the Kentucky Derby starters and came into the second Triple Crown gem a month or more from their last start. The trend started inconspicuously enough in Swiss Skydiver’s pandemic year win, outstanding both for her epic duel with Authentic, who was that September’s Kentucky Derby winner, and for the irregular Triple Crown season when it was run. 

Swiss Skydiver beat four Kentucky Derby starters in a field of eleven that included Authentic (2nd) by a neck, Max Player (5th), Mr. Big News (7th) and New York Traffic (9th). The filly had run second in the Kentucky Oaks in her prior start, which in 2020 was a month ahead of the Preakness.

Rombauer had 34 points, enough to enter the 2021 Kentucky Derby, but owners John and Diane Fradkin agreed with trainer Michael McCarthy that the Kentucky Derby didn’t suit Rombauer’s style. Brushing aside their Kentucky Derby dream, the Fradkins were paid off in the Preakness as Rombauer at 11.80-1 convincingly won the Preakness by over three lengths in a field of ten with three Kentucky Derby starters finishing immediately behind him, Midnight Bourbon (2nd), Medina Spirit (3rd) and Keepmeinmind (4th). 

Rombauer had made his prior start again more than thirty days prior in the April 3 Blue Grass Stakes, finishing third.

The following year, Early Voting had also had more than enough points to run in the Derby (50 points) after winning the Withers and finishing second in the Wood Memorial. But trainer Chad Brown and owner Seth Klarman thought the colt was too inexperienced. 

With the Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike bypassing the Preakness, Early Voting won the Preakness by 1 ¼ lengths over Epicenter (2nd) who has also finished second in the Kentucky Derby, and other Derby starters Simplification (6th) and Happy Jack (8th). Secret Oath (4th), the winner of the 2022 Kentucky Oaks, and Creative Minister (3rd) who won at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby day were also in that nine-horse field.

Like Muth this year, National Treasure skipped last year’s Kentucky Derby because he was trained by Bob Baffert, the continuation of the 2021 saga of Medina Spirit’s positive test for betamethasone. Only the winner of the Kentucky Derby, Mage, was in the seven-horse Preakness field, finishing third behind National Treasure who won by a head over Blazing Sevens. 

With the scratch of Muth, Baffert still has Imagination in the Preakness field. He made his last start on April 6 in the Santa Anita Derby, finishing second, making him the biggest non-Derby threat to Mystik Dan, but there are others. Uncle Heavy made his last start in the Wood Memorial on April 6, finishing a troubled fifth. Mugatu finished fifth in the Blue Grass Stakes over a month ago. Tuscan Gold finished third in the Louisiana Derby on March 23.

In addition to Mystik Dan, this year’s Preakness attracted Catching Freedom, fourth in the Kentucky Derby and Just Steel, who was seventeenth after helping to push the Kentucky Derby pace.

In the previous decades, the Belmont Stakes was considered as the spoiler race for the Triple Crown winner as it was for California Chrome (2014), I’ll Have Another (2012), Big Brown (2008), Smarty Jones (2004), Funny Cide (2003), War Emblem (2002), Charismatic (1999), Real Quiet (1998) and the oldest surviving Kentucky Derby winner,  Silver Charm (1997).

The last Kentucky Derby starter to win the Preakness was War of Will in 2019 vindicating his impeded trip in the Kentucky Derby. Justify won the Preakness in 2018 on his way to the Triple Crown after American Pharoah ended the Triple Crown drought in 2015, both for trainer Bob Baffert. 

Whatever your opinion on the format of the Triple Crown, (this author believes the three Triple Crown races should be three weeks apart), coincidence or trend, the rested shooter angle brings options and a little recent history. There will be a little value with Imagination and much more with Tuscan Gold, Uncle Heavy and Mugatu to reward those who follow trends.

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