PIMLICO PICKS AND PONDERINGS: may 17, 2024
In which we pick the races from Pimlico each day…
Post time: 11:30 a.m.
Carryovers:
Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 —$5,679
Super High 5 — $6,977
Late Pick 5 — $0
Check out our other handicapping here!
RACE 1: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES
3-5-1-7
We’re ready to rock for a fantastic 14-race card. Note the early first post time. #3 Castle Island (2-1) ran off the screen to break his maiden two starts back (albeit in a race he kind of had to win), then fought hard in the stretch and finished a game second to Sherriff Ronnie, a four-time winner on the year, in his most recent try. He ran brisnet figures in the 90s in both those races, something the rest of the field struggles to do at all. #5 Patient Capital (12-1) ran in that range steadily last year, but came up empty in his first start off an eight-month layoff last out at Aqueduct. He’s had some good workouts since then for Horacio De Paz, who is sharp second off the claim, and has plenty of early speed. #1 Under the Radar (7-2), my preferred half of the Jamie Ness-trained entry, has struggled to break in his last few starts, which has cost him crucial early position. Earlier in the year, he raced a bit closer to the pace, and was always right there at the end, including a three-race streak with figures of at elast 89. We’ll know where he stands within the first few seconds of this one.
RACE 2: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)
10-12-7-6
Many of these are coming out of the same race at this condition April 21. #10 One Whirlwind Ride (5-2) ran the best of anyone in this field that day. He chased pacesetting Where’s Ray, who drew off in the stretch and couldn’t be caught, but this one worked his way through some traffic and got up to win in a blanket finish. This one also ran well in a tougher first-level field last year, and is a half-sibling to a pair of grass winners, including one who was stakes-placed on this surface. #12 Fun Notion (7-2) races for the first time since November 19, where he converted the trip and won going away against Maryland-restricted rivals. He ran a 91 two starts back in a gigantic effort, where he overcame some traffic and lost by a nose. He might be a bit short compared to some of these, but he has worked well since late March, and has enough ability to be a contender regardless. #7 Tidewater (3-1) finished fourth behind One Whirlwind Ride first off the layoff last out, and just missed in some races against similar types last fall. He has tons of upside and should run a big one second off the bench.
- Deterministic rallies to win G3 Virginia DerbyJockey Manny Franco’s sixth win of the day at Colonial Downs came in the Grade 3 Virginia Derby aboard Deterministic, now a graded winner on turf and dirt.
RACE 3: MAIDEN CLAIMING $45,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS
9-3-2-5
#9 Car Ride (5-1) ran well as the lone first-timer in the field two starts ago, chasing down a loose leader and losing by a nose. He was outkicked by the well-bet Jay last out, but still ran on well in his own right and secured second. He ran in the mid/upper-70s in both of those races, and should get a pace to run at. #3 Without Pretence (9-2) stopped badly going two turns in his last start, and faded after a wide trip two starts back, but ran a big 84 first off a five-month layoff three races ago. At his peak, he packs a strong closing punch, and his excuse-filled lines could drive up his price. #2 Irish Hero (6-1) has shown abundant early speed and faded in each of his first three starts. He’s sure to make the rail and the lead once again here; from there, it’s a matter of how long he can last.
RACE 4: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)
3-6-5-1
If Fun Notion or Tidewater win race 2, it’ll further validate the form of #3 Childers (4-1), who beat both those rivals last October 27. This one made his first grass start since then, and second start off the bench, in his last start, where he chased gate-to-wire winner That’s Right and finished a clear-cut second with a more than respectable 86. He should get a much more contested pace to rate off of today. #6 Talented Man (12-1) is one of the more talented speedsters in the field, having gone gate-to-wire to win twice on the Parx lawn last year, including a hard-ought victory in the Marshall Jenney Handicap. He stopped badly in his first start of the year on February 27, and hasn’t raced since, but at least has some solid recent workouts, and he’s a little more recently raced than most of his rivals. He’s proven he can withstand pace pressure. #5 Dr Oseran (5-2) races for the first time in almost a year. He ran some big races n the winter of 2023 at Gulfstream Park, with marks of 92 and 88 in his first two starts of the season, then finished a strong-closing third despite a slow break in the Roar Stakes last May. He has the highest ceiling of anyone in the field, but while he must be respected, he’s hard to swallow at low odds.
RACE 5: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS
6-10-5-9
#6 North Highland (8-1) has form obscured by excessive ambition. He ran two lousy races going a mile or longer earlier in the year, but if you take out those races, he looks a lot better. He’s run at least an 87 in each of his last four races at seven furlongs or shorter, the only one in the field to do so, and has by far the best late pace figures in the race. #10 Golden Candy (2-1) sat the trip and got up to win at this level two starts back with a giant 97, defeating next-out stakes winner Take a Hint in the process. He should rate right off the paced from the outside and be in a prime position to pounce. #5 Point Dume (7-2) tries older horses for the first time. He didn’t run well in the Private Terms Stakes last out around two turns, but ran at least an 88 in three straight starts, including a solid second behind a determined Speedyness in the Miracle Wood Stakes two starts ago. He looks much better suited for races like this.
RACE 6: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)
4-10-8-1
Here’s an example of where local knowledge comes in handy, especially with the giant pools of Black-Eyed Susan day. It doesn’t show up in the past performances, but #4 Mission North (12-1) won at the Old Dominion Point-to-Point in Virginia in early April, taking a 1 1/4 mile race where he defeated winners. He made his first pari-mutuel start of the season last out, and ran a respectable 77 despite never really getting settled. He takes the blinkers off here, an angle trainer Jack Fisher is very potent with, and looks very live third off the layoff. #10 Cinder Block (7-2) saved plenty of ground and held on for third on debut at Keeneland last out, running the best of the four first-time starters while losing only to the two chalks. His dam, Zucchini Flower, was multiple stakes-placed on grass, and two of his siblings have won on this surface. #8 Wow Whata Party (15-1), whose half-brother, Wow Whata Summer, runs later today, gobbled up ground on debut going 5 1/2 furlongs and was beaten three lengths. He has room to improve at second asking at a price. The distance shouldn’t be a problem; his brother’s most famous accomplishment is winning the Penn Mile around two turns on the sod.
- Wendell Fong’s long route to the finish lineIt was a long, twisting road for eight-year-old gelding Wendell Fong, but it’s ending up in the right place: with the retirement he’s earned.
RACE 7: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE (GRASS)
11-6-3-5
One more to go, then we’re on to the stakes action. #11 Sun Bee (3-1) held her own against stakes company last summer and fall, and has the best late pace figures in the race. If she gets any kind of pace to close into, she’ll have an especially potent kick for the Graham Motion/Jorge Ruiz duo. Should she win, she’ll likely have to run down #6 Paper Mansion (5-2) to do so. She’s won her last six starts, five of them in gate-to-wire fashion. Without a ton of other speed, she’s likely to get a pretty lonely lead. Her only problem might be the class hike. It can be harder holding off second-level types than the starter handicap foes she saw at Tampa Bay Downs this winter. #3 Chelichna (20-1) races for the first time since November 4. She ended her year in ascending form, including a near-miss in the Maryland Million Turf Distaff Starter Handicap in the penultimate start of the season, and also has great late pace figures. Jeiron Barbosa gets abord for the first time.
RACE 8: ALLAIRE DUPONT DISTAFF STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/8 MILES
1-7-5-8
The first stakes race of the weekend is named for the legendary mid-Atlantic owner and breeder, best-known for campaigning the great Kelso. #1 Julia Shining (5-2) ran some big races against some nice horses towards the end of last year, then returned in a second-level contest at Keeneland last out. She raced wide off slow fractions in that race, and made a bold move to strike the front at the top of the stretch, but flattened out and finished second to a rival who, even though she also came from off the pace, saved much more ground. As long as the pace in front of her isn’t too slow, she’ll be a serious late threat. The gigantic #7 Intrepid Dream (8-1) hasn’t done much wrong in two races this year, coming from off the pace and drawing off to win easily both times. She looked sharp in victory in the Heavenly Cause Stakes last out, albeit in a short field, and gets her class test here. She’ll rate just off the pace under Jaime Rodriguez, subbing for the injured Jevian Toledo, and should get every shot to pull away and make it six wins in a row. #5 Queen of Missoula (8-1) ran some big races at Turfway Park over the winter, then ran a respectable 86 when fifth against better in the Doubledogdare Stakes last out. She’ll get a similar trip as Julia Shining, and even if that rival outkicks her, this one should get up for a minor share.
RACE 9: HILLTOP STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 1 MILE (GRASS)
6-2-5-1
We’re going back to the lawn for a race named in tribute to Pimlico’s nickname, “Old Hilltop.” #6 She Feels Pretty (7-5) has a big class edge over these. She won the Natalma Stakes at Woodbine last September, then finished a solid third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf despite an overland trip. She ran in the upper-80s in both those wins. If she improves on that form at all, the rest of these are running for minor spoils. #2 Royal Wintour (3-1) has taken big steps forward with each of her three starts. She rallied in the center of the track at Keeneland last out and lost a nosebob photo finish. If She Feels Pretty doesn’t fire off the bench, this one is the most likely candidate to take advantage. #5 Just Better (12-1) overcame a dawdling second quarter to break her maiden at Fair Grounds two starts ago, and gets Frankie Dettori aboard for the first time.
RACE 10: MISS PREAKNESS STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 FURLONGS
7-3-10-1
#7 Carmelina (12-1) turned in back-to-back impressive performances on the lead in stakes company to cap her 2-year-old season. She lasted through pace pressure to hold second in the Busher Stakes two starts back, but couldn’t hang around going 1 1/8 miles in the Gazelle Stakes last out and faded. This distance is right in her wheelhouse, and she’s a serious threat to wire them. #3 Youalmosthadme (2-1) has similar form as Carmelina, but will go off at much lower odds. She also won two stakes in row top cap her season, also with figures in the 90s both times, then came up empty first off the bench in the Beaumont Stakes at Keeneland last out. She’ll get first crack at Carmelina if that one fades on the lead. #10 Discreet Ops (12-1) is a perfect 2-for-2 lifetime, and matched her debut mark of 86 first off a 4 1/2-month layoff in her most recent outing. She’s getting a class test here, but should get her trip and looks like a live longshot.
RACE 11: THE VERY ONE STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)
8-4-10-12
This race is named for the top mare of the 1970s. She started her career in Maryland, won three stakes races here, and was second in the 1980 Washington D.C. International. There’s two races named for her (the other at Gulfstream Park), which means we get to have two Twitter debates per year about if it’s supposed be called “The The Very One” or just “The Very One.” #8 All That Magic (5-1) makes her first start since November 7, when she was fanned wide and finished a strong-closing third in the Autumn Days Stakes at Aqueduct. She quickly improved when introduced to grass last summer; her only bad race on the surface came over an absolutely waterlogged grass course in the Turf Monster Stakes at Parx. #4 Kaufymaker (2-1) ran a huge race on the lead two races back at Saratoga, then couldn’t make it to the front in the Woodford Stakes next out and didn’t do much. Unlike last time, she has the most early speed in the field, so as long as she shows anything in her first outing since October 7, she’ll make the front and will prove tough to catch from there. #10 Future is Now (6-1) dueled on the lead and held second through very fast fractions in the Captiva Island Stakes two starts back, but couldn’t last on the pace in the King Leatherbury Stakes last out. Which version of her shows up here?
RACE 12: PIMLICO SPECIAL, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 3/16 MILES
4-2-5-6
#4 Pyreness (8-1) has raced on the pace and drawn off to win his last thee starts, climbing up the class ladder without much drama. There’s not a lot of speed in this contest, so while he’s had the advantage of easy paces in his last few races, it’s possible he gets another one here, and proves impossible to catch. #2 Kingsbarns (7-5) is the most likely one to apply pace pressure. He’s run two big races since coming back to the races in early March, and kicked away to win the Ben Ali Stakes impressively last out. If Pyreness can’t hang on the front end, this one should take full advantage and kick away from the others. #5 Red Route One (8-5) rallied from last off a hot pace to win the New Orleans Classic two races ago, then was third in the Oaklawn Handicap when he closed off more moderate fractions. He’ll have to hope Kingsbarns dishes serious heat to Pyreness, but even if he doesn’t, this one should be good for an exotics spot.
RACE 13: GEORGE E. MITCHELL BLACK-EYED SUSAN STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 1 1/8 MILES
5-4-7-6
Today’s featured event, the filly equivalent of the Preakness, is named for the official flower of the Preakness and a Baltimore community leader who passed away in 2020. #5 Gun Song (9-2) ran back-to-back marks in the mid-90s to start her season, then faded after racing on a contested pace in the Gulfstream Park Oaks last out. She takes a drop in class here, and should be able to control the pace from no further out than the two-path. #4 Call Another Play (8-1) has been in improving form over her last three starts, with consecutive victories and ascending figures. She came from midpack to win the Weber City Miss Stakes going away last out. She packs a solid middle punch and should be a late threat, but will need to take another step forward to beat Gun Song’s ceiling. #7 Corposo (5-2) broke her maiden in sharp style two races last out, then held third in her stakes debut in the Santa Anita Oaks. She should work out another nice trip near the pace and will hopefully pack more of a late punch.
RACE 14: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE (GRASS)
4-10-5-7
#4 Wonderful Justice (9-5) the winner of the Black Gold Stakes at Fair Grounds last year, ran a career-best 89 when fourth in a tough second-level field at Keeneland last out, which included the likes of stakes winners Northern Invader and Belouni. #10 The Addison Pour (3-1) had a frustrating season last year, with a string of near misses against these types, and began his campaign with a strong-closing third at this level last out. He should once again rate well off the early pace and get up for a slice. #5 American Unity (8-1) has won five of nine on grass lifetime, and has finished no worse than third on this surface. He ran a surface-best mark of 87 last out when chasing gate-to-wire winner Megacity
LATEST NEWS
- Nick’s Picks: Colonial Downs picks September 7, 2024
- Laurel Park picks and ponderings: September 7, 2024
- Delaware Park picks and analysis: September 7, 2024
- Nick’s Picks: Colonial Downs picks September 6, 2024
- Nick’s Picks: Colonial Downs picks September 5, 2024
- Delaware Park picks and analysis: September 5, 2024