PIMLICO PICKS AND PONDERINGS: may 18, 2024

In which we pick the races from Pimlico each day…

Post time: 10:30 a.m.

Carryovers: 
Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 —$85,870
Super High 5 — $20,616
Late Pick 5 — $0

Check out our other handicapping here!

RACE 1: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)

9-7-1-8 (DIRT: 9-1-4-10)

We’ll start Preakness day 2024 with a very nice pedigree. #9 Lieutenant General (5-2) is out of top grass sprinter Lady Shipman, and a half-brother to to Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner Golden Pal. He improved sharply at second asking at Keeneland last out, battling for the lead and hanging in there until late going seven furlongs. This distance should be right in his wheelhouse. #7 Takethefifth (6-1) made his local debut last out after a string of mild efforts at Fair Grounds, and rallied well for second behind a contested early pace. He’ll hope for similarly fast fractions here, and there’s plenty of speed in here to give it to him. #1 Irish Heartbeat (3-1) ran a respectable second on debut at Gulfstream Park last out, chasing the gate-to-wire favored winner Bonus Move, and has worked well since the end of the season for Mike Maker.

RACE 2: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

8-5-2-7 (DIRT: 7-8-9-10)

#8 Chelonian (5-1) goes first off the claim by Jamie Ness. He made is first start in a while last out, and gobbled up ground to lose by less than a length in a blanket finish. He lost to the likes of The King Cheek and Channon’s Roar, both hard-knocking local grass runners. He’ll eb tough with a pace to close into. #5 St. John’s (6-1) made his second start off the layoff last out, and just missed behind Fulmineo (who we’ll see later today in the James Murphy Stakes) after rating near the pace. He converted a stalking trip to a victory at Kentucky Downs last fall, and should be good, if nothing else, for an exotics spot after he hangs around late. #2 Porquerolles (8-5) ran a big second in his first start against winners last out, losing to favored What Say Thee, who has much more experience and has won three of four starts this year. He should also get a nice trip from towards the rail.

RACE 3: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

5-7-1-3

#5 Magic Express (2-1) fell flat after he failed to change leads last out, but still ran a career-best brisnet figure of 93. He broke his maiden impressively two starts back at Aqueduct after engaging in a duel (his dueling partner, who got bet, lost by 8 1/2 lengths). #7 Nasty Habit (9-2) faced a pretty salty field by these standards last out, which included Take Charge Too, who finished third in a second-level contest yesterday, along with Maryland Million Starter Handicap winner Disputed Claim. He came from further off the pace than usual in his last out, but made good ground and got up for third. He had run in the 90s in his two prior starts. #1 Mirahmadi (7-5) received tons of hype before his debut last June, but hasn’t found the winner’s circle in four career starts. He set the pace and held second when last seen in the Del Mar Futurity in September, running by far a career-best 94. You’ll have to swallow a low price on a horse who hasn’t raced since last September, but he might have the highest ceiling in the race.

RACE 4: SKIPAT STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

3-4-1-7

Today’s first stakes race is named for the legendary Mid-Atlantic based sprinter of the 1970s, and also the greatest Connecticut-bred of all time. #3 Disco Ebo (5-2) set the pace and held on to win the Primonetta Stakes last out. She looks like the dominant speed of this field, and is especially adept on a wet surface should it rain, finishing no worse than second in five starts on an off surface. #4 Apple Picker (7-5) beat a field much like this one in the Barbara Fritchie Stakes in February, and now gets some class relief after showing little in the Distaff Stakes at Aqueduct last out. Her best race came on this track in September, when she won the Weather Vane Stakes going away. #1 Royal Poppy (5-1) hit the gate at the start last out and was little factor from there, but was in sharp form at Aqueduct in her prior four races, hitting the exacta while running in the 90s every time.

RACE 5: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)

8-2-7-5 (DIRT: 6-4-9-11)

#8 Up for It (6-1) has run at least a 75 three times in her career, the only one to do so. She got three months off after a dull race against the boys at Gulfstream in January, but has worked well at Fair Hill since, and should be ready to run back to her best self. #2 Marian Cross (3-1) also has sharp figures, with marks no worse than a 78 in her two tries on the lawn. She declined a bit around two turns in her last two outings, but should be well-suited for this distance. #7 Rye Smile (5-2) was well-bet on debut and was the only one to make up serious ground in that race, rallying for second in a photo finish.

RACE 6: CHICK LANG STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS

7-1-3-5

This contest honors the longtime general manager of Pimlico. Maryland Million Nursery champion #7 Catahoula Moon (7-2) has taken steps forward with every start this year. He set the pace for the first time in a while last out, then fended off Petingas Twin and next-out winner Play Harder, a promising horse in his own right, with a career-best 93. His only bad recent race came in the Heft Stakes last December, where he raced wide throughout and never lifted a hoof. #1 Mr. Skylight (3-1) lasted through pace pressure and held on to win a first-level contact last out, in his first start against winners. He should set the pace on the inside and will be tough to reel in from there. #3 Petingas Twin (6-1) just missed behind Catahoula Moon last out, and finished a big second to the promising Quint’s Brew three starts ago in the mud.

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RACE 7: GALLORETTE STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

3-6-7-1

The great Maryland-bred mare is honored with this Preakness day staple. #3 Blissful (7-2) led most of the way through honest fractions last out, but got chased down by Girl Named Charlie, who got a perfect garden-spot trip. This one looks faster than anyone to her inside, so she could be able to work out a similar trip here. #6 Five Towns (6-1) rounded into peak form in the Dahlia Stakes last out, coming from off the pace to win going away with a career-best 90 third time in the United States. #7 Fluffy Socks (7-5) has the class edge over these, having more than held her own against better over the last 12 moths. Her most impressive effort might have been in her 2023 finale, when she closed wide in the Matriarch Stakes at Del Mar and lost by a head. She looks for a rebound off a disappointing try in the Jenny Wiley Stakes last out, and while her form has ben in-and-out, her best race wins this.

RACE 8: MARYLAND SPRINT STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

6-3-1-2

This race looms as a rematch between the top two finishers in the April 13 Frank Whiteley Stakes, #1 Coastal Mission (3-1) held on to win by a nose over #6 Prince of Jericho (7-2) in a stirring stretch battle, but Prince of Jericho ran the best race of the duo. Making his second start off a six-month layoff, he lasted through a destructive early duel (his two dueling partners were well-beaten), and dug in against Coastal Mission when that rival challenged after rating off the pace. He ran a similar trace to win by a nose in this first start off the bench two races back over Threes Over Deuces, who has won since. This one has a ton of potential and cannot be overlooked. #3 Super Chow (4-1) set slow fractions in the Carter Stakes last out, but got into his usual habit of drifting in the stretch, and ended up third. He’s sure to provide a challenge to Prince of Jericho on the lead from the inside, and he’s also proven he can last through pace pressure.

RACE 9: JAMES W. MURPHY STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 1 MILE (GRASS)

5-10-12-4

The longtime Maryland-based trainer is the namesake of this contest. #5 Speedyness (10-1) has never raced on grass before, but that doesn’t mean he can’t handle it. His dam, Hartigan, was a multiple stakes winner on that surface. He has plenty of early speed, and exceeded owner/breeder/trainer Jamie Ness’s expectations with game performances in his last two races around two turns. He has a similar profile as Joe, who made his grass debut in this race two years ago and won. #10 Abrumar (5-1) raced wide most of the way in the American Turf Stakes last out and packed up. He’s dug in and held on in his two prior starts, both at trainer Saffie Joseph’s home base of Gulfstream Park. It remains to be seen if he can outside of Florida, but if he can work out a more ground-saving trip, we’ll get a chance to find out. #12 Fulmineo (9-2) has had bad luck with posts and trips in his last few starts, and gets another tough draw here. Some horses tend to find trouble, and he’s one of them. His main upside is that he was badly pace-compromised last out, and if someone presses Speedyness, he might get a pace to close into.

RACE 10: SIR BARTON STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/16 MILES

10-8-5-7

This race honors the first Triple Crown winner. #10 Imperial Gun (7-2) found himself outclassed in the Arkansas Derby two starts back, but ran on well when clear in the Bath House Row Stakes last out and just missed with a career-best 88. If he can settle early, he’ll be especially tough. #8 Tuscan Sky (5-2) was flat without much of an excuse in the Wood Memorial last out, but sat the trip and ran big in his two prior starts. He adds blinkers here for Todd Pletcher, and will try to work out a trip close to the leaders. #5 Corporate Power (9-5) ran a career-best 93 last out in first-level company at Aqueduct when a chasing second. He rallied well behind slow paces in his first two starts of his career at Gulfstream, including his maiden win, where he lugged in late. Adding blinkers should help rectify that situation.

RACE 11: JIM MCKAY TURF SPRINT STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 FURLONGS (GRASS)

12-11-6-10

This event honors the legendary sportscaster and founder of the Maryland Million. #12 Beer Can Man (5-2), last year’s winner, looks for his second win in a row in this race. He ran in the mid-90s with consistency last year, with a string of near-misses in stakes company before a seventh-place effort in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. He didn’t do much in his return to the races in the Shakertown Stakes, but he didn’t do much in his 2023 bow, and he won the Jim McKay in his next start. Could lightning strike twice? #11 Witty (9-2) had a bit of a seconditis streak last year, but he’s managed to rekindle his best form in his last few starts, winning four of his last five races. He made his first start off a five-month break in the King Leatherbury Stakes last out, and gobbled up ground to get up and win by a neck. In both of his big grass wins last year, the Ben’s Cat Stakes and the Maryland Million Turf Sprint, the grass course had some moisture. If he takes a step forward off that race second off the bench, he’ll be especially hard to hold off. #6 Smooth B (12-1) didn’t do much first off the six-month respite last out, but at least it got a race into him heading into today. He ran a pair of big races on grass at Parx last year, finishing third behind Witty and Talented Man, who came back to win yesterday, in the Marshall Jenney Handicap, then finished second over a waterlogged grass course in the Turf Monster Stakes next out. At least we know he’d love wet conditions.

RACE 12: DINNER PARTY STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/8 MILES (GRASS)

5-3-9-10

This race, named in tribute to the first race run at Pimlico in 1870, takes its rightful spot right before the Preakness. #5 Running Bee (9-2) is relatively lightly-raced, having made just nine starts in his career. He faced a stakes-quality field last out at Keeneland and got up to win after a pocket trip despite the leader drifting into his path. Master Piece, who finished third, came back to win the Fort Marcy Stakes in his next outing. #3 Balnikhov (6-1) has great late pace figures, and closed well off a fast pace to grab third in the San Francisco Mile last out. He might not have enough early speed to be a win contender, but he should at least grab an exotics spot. #9 Beatbox (6-1) has run at least a 95 three times in his last four starts. He takes a drop off a fourth-place effort in the Muniz Memorial Classic last out where he faced some very nice runners. including I’m Very Busy, who was second in the Pegasus Turf prior to that effort, Secretariat Stakes winner Gigante, and three-time stakes winner Webslinger.

RACE 13: PREAKNESS STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 1 3/16 MILES

5-8-3-2

In everyone’s haste to try and beat #5 Mystik Dan (2-1), it seems people are forgetting that (a) he ran a big race in the Kentucky Derby, holding on for the win in a race where almost everyone else near the pace stopped, and (b) he’s run big over wet tracks before, with a dominant win in the Southwest Stakes three starts back a launching pad to further success. He might be able to make the front from the rail, and if he can ensure a slower pace than the one he dealt with in the Derby, he should be in good shape. Chad Brown has won this race twice, just missed last year, and sends out #8 Tuscan Gold (8-1) here. He’s a bit lighter on experience than either Cloud Computing or Early Voting were, but he took a big step forward when third in the Louisiana Derby last out, with a career-best 98, and should get a nice trip near the leaders. However, you won’t get his 8-1 morning line; in fact, he might go off favored. #3 Catching Freedom (6-1) might also vie for favoritism off a fourth-place finish in the Derby, which followed a victory in the Louisiana Derby. He got a hot pace to close into on the first Saturday in My and still couldn’t get by Mystik Dan, so he’ll need that rival to get more early pressure.

RACE 14: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

2-3-7-1

For the first time in a while, a Thoroughbred race ends the card. #2 Sheriff Ronnie (4-1) saw his form validated yesterday when Castle Island, whom he beat last out, returned to win a first-level race. This one has run in the 90s twice in his last three starts, going gate-to-wire on the lead both times, and should be tough to catch if he secures the rail and the early lead. #3 Speargun (8-1) races first off the claim by Lacey Gaudet. He led every step to win in gate-to-wire fashion at Parx two starts back on a wet track, then held second behind next-out winner Bestsugardaddyever in his most recent try after showing speed. #7 Union Fleet (5-1) would be flattered if either Coastal Mission or Prince of Jericho ran well in the Maryland Sprint, considering he finished third behind them in the Frank Whiteley last out. He came from off the pace and got up to beat first-level foes two starts ago, and ran in the mid/upper-90s both times.

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