Delaware Park picks and analysis: June 26, 2024

Picks and analysis for today’s card from Delaware Park:

  • DATE/POST TIME: June 26, 2024/12:30 p.m.
  • RACES ON CARD: 8
  • CARRYOVERS: None

PICKS GRID

RACE 1
WIN2. Clever TigerHung out wide in last; makes second off the bench
PLACE4. Big Tone C
SHOW5. Skull Runner
RACE 2
WIN7. RadieuxCouldn’t go with 6-5 fave in last
PLACE3. Two Thirty FiveHoping for more value after clunker in last versus better; winner repeated
SHOW5. Hollywood Closeup
RACE 3 (turf)
WIN4. HendricksonTop two choices in here both exit races where the pace scenario worked well for them but couldn’t seal it; could make #1 the value
PLACE5. Holla At Your Boy
SHOW1. Country Charlie
RACE 4
WIN6. MakemebelieveTroubled trip in last and winner repeated in minor stake at Prairie Meadows
PLACE5. PrincipiaGood-looking winner of local allowance contest in last for third win in four
SHOW1. Carroll Girl
RACE 5 (turf)
WIN2. Sheriff JoeClass dropper from Stidham barn
PLACE5. Go Take ChargeGood setup two back, couldn’t quite get it done
SHOW11. UwasnreddiGelded, blinkers, and Lasix on – look for step forward soon
RACE 6
WIN5. MackmanPretty much has to be one of this trio; lightly raced sort owns right to improve
PLACE6. Play HardFirst since September; Capuano barn torrid at DEL
SHOW4. GoodafternoonoscarSpeed figs say he’s a winner here, but 0-for-9 record at this level urges caution
RACE 7 (turf)
WIN5. MerrychillStuck with it in paceless affair in turf bow
PLACE6. KroneBig effort to graduate in last but none of seven to run back has won since
SHOW9. Rebel Consort
RACE 8
WIN6. Dia de SolControlling speed in second off the bench
PLACE2. MurumbiClosing in slow early-fast late race from which winner moved up and won again
SHOW3. Party Monster

RACING NOTES

  • Jose Batista posted a riding hat trick Saturday, none on the favorite. He’s 8-for-41 at the meet, which equates to 1.92 wins above expectations per 50 starts…
  • Trainer Juan Arriagada won twice. He’s 8-for-25 at the meet (2.29 wins above expecations per 25 starts)…
  • Two horses were claimed Saturday, and the claim of a third, Exit Right, was voided by the state vet. Exit Right finished third in a starter/optional claiming contest…

CHECK OUT THE LATEST OFF TO THE RACES RADIO!

HANDICAPPING NOTES

The early Pick 5, with 15% takeout, has drawn around $100,000 in wagering on the Wednesday card the last couple of weeks, so we’ll give that a look. In the first, a lower level maiden event, you can make a case for our top three and also for #3 Sometimes I Do for trainer Sam Davis. This one’s debut wasn’t awful, and while the follow-up wasn’t good, the return to the main track ought to help. With just two races under his belt, he still has the right to improve… In race two, the horse not in our top three that figures to get a lot of attention is #4 Spectrier, who just missed at this level two back. But it feels like the key to the race is what you do with #3 Two Thirty Five. We’re using him, but we’re largely doing it on faith; he’s run two straight clunkers with a three-month break between them; those races won’t be good enough here. On the other hand, he’s not that far removed from races that would easily win this one and stretches out to his preferred two-turn trip…

In the third, as noted above, both of our top pair got pretty good setups in last, and neither could deliver. That points you in the direction of either #1 Country Charlie or #2 Street Rockin. The former ran big two back when fighting for the lead on a fast pace in a race that’s produced two next-out winners. HIs follow-up wasn’t as good, but a return to that two-back race would put him right there, possibly at a price (10-1 morning line). The latter ran evenly last out and makes his third start off the bench… The lightly raced #2 Blaze On has won three of four career starts and tackles her toughest task to date in the fourth race. The somewhat unusual hybrid condition puts horses like her — now in the four-life condition — at something of a class disadvantage versus veterans that may be quite a ways removed from running for the $16,000 tag that opens the starter condition… The other horse who’s a little interesting in the fifth is #3 Pineapple Lane, dropping from special weight company to maiden $16,000. She showed a little bit of tactical speed in her first dirt outing and caught a challenging group: two of the top three were $250,000+ auction purchases. A win here would give trainer Daisy Olivo her first career victory…

Exotics

Early Pick 5 Play
RACE 1: 2, 4, 5
RACE 2: 3, 7
RACE 3: 1, 4, 5
RACE 4: 1, 2, 5, 6
RACE 5: 2, 5
COST: $72

RACING DATA

All jockeys who have made at least 20 starts at Delaware Park in 2024; those with positive “wins above expectations” have won more race than their odds would have predicted, while those with negative wins above expectations have won fewer.

Delaware jockeys wins above expectations

JockeyWins above/50 startsStartsWinsExpected wins
Maldonado Gabriel5.56812516.00
Centeno D E5.032474.59
Luna Obregon Paul Angelo3.642020.54
Cedeno Carol3.2465127.79
Sanchez Mychel J2.912464.60
Batista Jose A1.924186.43
Rodriguez Jamie1.48471412.61
Robles Ederik O0.98801816.42
Crispin Alexander-0.115777.12
Astudillo Felix-0.544633.49
Mena Raul E-1.263733.93
Hernandez Julio A-1.5670810.19
Villasmil Edgar-1.732511.86
Hiraldo John-1.995235.07
Gomez Kevin-4.2069510.80

All trainers who have made at least 10 starts at Delaware Park in 2024; those with positive “wins above expectations” have won more races than their odds would have predicted, while those with negative wins above expectations have won fewer.

TrainerWins above/25 startsStartsWinsExpected wins
Siculietano Daniel W2.591320.66
Capuano Gary A2.292485.80
Arriagada Juan2.292585.71
Motion H Graham1.701343.12
CarrascoJr Victor1.491232.29
Jones Michael E Jr1.222631.74
Bailon Nesvil Hernan1.131421.37
Deiter Kelly Lynn1.051310.46
Moysey Chelsey E1.022343.06
Pickett Crystal G0.941621.40
Werneth Robert A0.851310.56
Sepulveda Carlos M0.611221.71
Ochoa Gerard0.431832.69
Lawrence James Lee0.201010.92
Simone Michael V0.052243.96
Simoff Andrew-0.151422.08
Russell Brittany T-0.391633.25
Magee Kieron-0.471555.28
Iannotti Thomas Iv-0.491111.21
Sanchez-Salomon Rodolfo-0.502944.59
Ashby Lynn-0.612322.56
Gorham Michael E-0.772422.74
Stidham Michael-0.901222.43
Ramirez Jose A-0.911611.58
Rodriguez Darien-0.971322.50
Nazario Pedro-0.994112.62
Ness Jamie-1.05511214.14
Compton Greg-1.281944.97
Sullivan Elliott-1.331111.58
Pecoraro Anthony-1.391211.67
Sanchez-Pinero Angel-1.892001.51
Lynch Cathal-1.921312.00
Thomas Jonathan-2.261122.99
Robertson McLean-2.261011.90
Rubley Kelly-3.261001.30
Richards Renaldo-6.061102.67

LATEST NEWS