LAUREL PARK PICKS AND PONDERINGS: july 5, 2024
In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…
Post time: 12:25 p.m.
Carryovers:
Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $3,648
Jackpot Super High 5 — $1,037
Late Pick 5 — $0
Check out our other handicapping here!
RACE 1: CLAIMING $20,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)
8-5-9-10
#8 Tall Order (5-2) drops from Maryland-restricted allowance company for his third start off the layoff. He made decent ground in the stretch in his last start before getting outkicked, still losing by less than three lengths. He just missed in a few tries against those types last year, and should be much better off against these. #5 Claudee Boy (10-1) took a big step forward second off the layoff last out, closing just a few strides behind #9 Boss Man J J (8-1) and losing second to that rival by a nose. I don’t know if Claudee Boy can duplicate that effort, since it’s an outlier from his other recent grass races, but he’s moving in the right direction, and will also likely be a better price than Boss Man J J. That one has raced since then, when he flattened out going a mile last out. He should enjoy the cutback around one turn.
RACE 2: CLAIMING $20,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS
1-2-5-4
#1 Pudd’n N Pie (8-5) has run in the 80s twice in her three starts since getting claimed by Jerry Robb in mid-April. Her only bad race for the Robb barn came when she tried to press the pace two starts ago, and faded to fourth. As long as she doesn’t get too eager, she’ll get a nice trip off the leaders and kick by them. I’m willing to give #2 Maddie Ten (2-1) a mulligan for her last start. She took a jump up to first-level foes, stretched out to a mile, and lost forward position at the start after getting jostled around. These look like much better circumstances for her to run her best. #5 Prize Debate (3-1) switches back to dirt after a flat try on the Penn National grass last out, but won her last dirt start impressively against non-winners of two foes. She’s moving in the right direction and has a similar style as Pudd’n N Pie, at a better price.
- This week’s Midlantic stakes scheduleWhich stakes are taking place this week around the Mid-Atlantic? Answers within.
RACE 3: MAIDEN CLAIMING $45,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE (GRASS)
4-1-2-5
#4 Saint Devereaux (4-1) was well-bet on debut in a wide-open maiden claiming contest, and closed well from last to get fourth in a race where the pacesetters held strong. She’s stretching out from 5 1/2 furlongs here, but shouldn’t have much trouble with the extra distance. #1 Steam Knot (9-2) couldn’t get to the front going shorter last out and ran a subpar race, but ran back-to-back 75s in her last two route efforts, where she set the pace both times. She should get to the front here and lead them for as long as she can. #2 Magic in the Park (2-1) was third in each of her first two starts of the year, both of them against better fields at this level. She just might not have enough closing punch to win, but if nothing else, she should make some mild ground late and get a slice.
RACE 4: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/8 MILES
4-6-5-1
#4 Fortune’s Fool (7-2) had little shot behind loose leader Helms Deep on a wet track last out, but he hasn’t run worse than an 82 in his last four starts on a fast track. He’s been scratched three times since his last race on May 5, most recently a trainer scratch on June 22, but he’s worked well in the meantime, suggesting Lacey Gaudet has kept him in top condition. #6 Walk Away Joe (9-5) is the only one in the field to run in the 80s in his last three starts, and he’s done so six times in a row. He has the best late pace figures in the race, and should be charging on late. #5 Morning Thoughts (6-1) races first off the claim by Anthony Farrior, who will give Arnaldo Bocachica a leg up. This one could find himself on the front end in a race without much early speed.
RACE 5: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)
9-11-2-7
#9 Hit the Road Brat (2-1) will try to keep her brat summer going with another victory. She won her debut last out for the Graham Motion barn, which doesn’t always hit with their debuters, with a strong 78. It was a strong effort, as she chased down the favored early leader, who set moderate early fractions. #11 Ninja Abarrio (4-1) came from way out of it, albeit into a strong early pace, to get second at this level last out. It was a much-improved race over her first grass start. #7 Waridi Candy (6-1) exits the same race as Ninja Abarrio, in which she was a mild sixth. However, it was her first start in six months, while Ninja Abarrio had the benefit of a consistent racing schedule. This one has run in the 80s three times in her last four starts. In the only time she didn’t in that stretch, she got up to win despite a slow early pace, which may have depressed her figure.
RACE 6: CLAIMING $12,500 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 7 FURLONGS
9-2-5-4
#9 At First Sight (9-2) ran a big race second off the bench last out, closing for second despite getting bumped around the break and losing early position. She should prompt the pace from the outside and pounce on the turn. #2 Molly of Stratford (9-5) consistently ran in the low-70s over the winter at Oaklawn Park, and now makes her first start on dirt since getting claimed by Kieron Magee. #5 Funzalo (15-1) might want more distance than this, but has the best last-out dirt figure in the field by five points and great late pace figures. She’s a must-use for underneath spots at a great price.
- “Miracle” horse All Caps wins first in two yearsAll Caps nearly died from an infection two years ago. So how did she get to the winner’s circle at Charles Town Saturday? “A miracle,” says her owner.
RACE 7: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLCIMAING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE (GRASS)
1-8-5-6
#1 Sir London (9-5) converted a great trip to victory with a career-best 92 two races back at Gulfstream Park, then made decent ground at Churchill Downs last out despite not getting a pace to close into. The Graham Motion/Jorge Ruiz trainer/jockey combo has been a dangerous one all season long. #8 Crisper (15-1) ran a big race first off a 7 1/2-month break two starts back, getting up for second behind a gate-to-wire winner in the With Anticipation Stakes at Penn National. He was flat at Parx last out, but is poised for a rebound here at an inflated number. #5 Storm the Court (4-1) won the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in a 45-1 upset, and hasn’t won since. He ran a respectable third first time in the Lacey Gaudet barn last out, and the figures he ran in two-turn races last year would win this race.
RACE 8: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE
1A-2-4-6
This is a virtual rematch of the 7th race on June 8. Five of the seven horses who ran that day are back here. #1A Search Engine (2-1) won that race, lasting through pace pressure and holding off the late rally of #4 Armando R (5-2). Search Engine might be even better going a one-turn mile with Jaime Rodriguez in the saddle, and has room to improve further third off the Jamie Ness claim. Armando R will almost certainly fall too far off the pace to win, but his closing punch should be good enough for a share, as usual. #2 Your Analysis (4-1) is one of three in here to run at least an 86 in each of his last three dirt starts. One of them, Armando R, has flaws that have already been discussed, and the other, Excellorator, hasn’t raced in 14 1/2 months. This one was flat at Delaware Park last out, but has run big races in his last two starts on this strip.
RACE 9: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/8 MILES (GRASS)
3-7-9-8
#3 Two by Two (3-1) will try to make it a Ness/Rodriguez late double. He’s closed well and just missed in his last two starts on the lawn, and should be hard to hold off in this one. #7 Bail Out (7-2) sat the trip to win second off a six-month layoff. He has great tactical speed, but his ceiling isn’t as high as Two by Two’s. #9 Guaponess (8-1) went gate-to-wire to win his grass debut two races ago, and has a grassy enough pedigree to suggest he can take another step forward on this surface.
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Didn’t pick today, but I have some thoughts:
– the 1 blows the field out of the water in race 2. Maddie Ten got the two easiest wins she could back in March and April (weak field to break the maiden and stalker-favoring track in the second) whereas the 1 won in style to break her maiden and goes for a barn that hits more often than not.
– Magic in the Park was bred to go two miles on the turf so idk why Keith made her 2-1 in a straight mile.
– For HTRB: Graham doesn’t normally hit with his debuters? Sharedashenanigans wants to know your location. She won first out (something her BC winning dam couldn’t do for the same exact trainer) and did so impressively, almost as if they were targeting the race from her auction date. QRs can be ultra versatile though, and she’s primed for great things if she can win today.
– Race 6: the 9 wins neg diff against this ENTIRE field. I don’t see how anyone else can win when she almost won her last, the 2 is tanking (and hasn’t been relevant since the Asmussen win), and no one can match her level of competence in their recents.
– not picking a horse that hasn’t won since pre-Covid? I never would have guessed! Although I was there for that BC Juv and there was no way that he would have won any other race the way things fell.
– surprised you didn’t mention It’s Viper, he usually has a more reliable close than Armando R and has experience closing against Ness horses (3/11/23 r6)
– Guaponess intrigues me. It could just be Pimlico bias that he won last out, but if he goes wire to wire again he could be a threat down the line.