Nick’s Picks: Colonial Downs picks July 12, 2024
Nick Hahn- July 12, 2024
THIS CARD HAS BEEN CANCELED.
- DATE/POST TIME: July 12/ 4:30
- RACES: 9
- CARRYOVERS: None
RACE 1
Opening on the dirt today, the highest finish of any of these seven maiden claimers on the dirt was fifth.
| 6. Sackett | Sackett comes in from Kentucky off the layoff, has Curlin breeding on his dam’s side and gets Trevor McCarthy to ride. |
| 2. Mister Woodford | Demeritte comes over the Applachains hoping that blinkers will help his colt figure out how to race-experience counts at this level. |
| 1. Wiley Willard | Maximum Security sired first timer also has Afleet Alex lineage on his dam’s side for Desormeaux trainee. |
RACE 2
The double daily concludes on dirt at a level where real short or real long resumes should usually be avoided.
| 7. Style and Profile | Ferris Allen’s Gun Runner filly is well-bred and showed improvement at Penn last month moving to the sprint with Antonio Gallardo aboard. |
| 1. Loki’s Lightning | In some of the deeper fields that Charles Town offers, Loki’s Lightning has placed well and draws the rail beneficial to her early speed. |
| 2. Balenciaga Betty | Some of the best Beyers here have been tallied by Balenciaga Betty who hasn’t run at the same track twice since coming from California. |
RACE 3
Fout’s Elusive is the only one here that won his non-winners of two at Colonial. A mile on the turf.
| 2. First Slew | Back to the winning surface and distance for First Slew, a mile on the turf earlier this year at Tampa. |
| 3. Admiral’s Wave | With Karamanos a good chance to break through especially at Colonial where last year ran Beyers in the 70s. |
| 6. Elusive | Ran a nice beyer in a win and a bigger one in a loss at Colonial last summer for Fout who saddles McCarthy. |
RACE 4
For starters in this two year old turf sprint field, the experience of their previous race was largely positive. Watch AEs closely.
| For starters in this two year old turf sprint field, the experience of their previous race was largely positive. Watch AEs closely. | |
| 1. Gangster | Antonio Gallardo looks to improve Gangster from his third place finish at Gulfstream in May. |
| 8. Buoyant | Russell is a known name at Colonial, this time as the trainer adding blinkers on a Union Rags colt. |
| 4. Candycrumbs | Candycrumbs ran well in a sloppy second at Gulfstream, sometimes a tip to turf and Tomlinson rating agrees. |
RACE 5
Three in this grouping picked up their “non winners of two” win at Colonial last summer.
| 8. Will’s Music | Draw a line through last month’s Penn National try and see a progression of Ferris Allen’s entry getting Gallardo. |
| 5. Masterofhiscraft | Curtis and Stidham’s three-year old has seen tougher foes than many here and Curtis returns to the mount. |
| 7. Bold Majestic | Last year, Dye took a shot in the Sophomore Turf after his win. It didn’t work out but his performance hasn’t waned since. |
RACE 6
Not less than six a legitimate contenders here including two from Casse one coming off a win and another that bounced coming off a win.
| 2. Souper Attentive | Kitten’s Joy three-year-old had to share a win several months ago at Gulfstream but with Gallardo may get all by himself. |
| 11. Breakwater | Draw a line through the soft Pimlico turf outing of Shug’s horse, different ground there than Tampa, especially when wet. |
| 5. St. John’s | FIsher’s Hard Spun had issues hopping the hurdles but has shown some versatily on surfaces with nice placings on the flat. |
NICK’S NOTES
- Picks continue below.
- English jockey Gavin Ashton and Irish-born Ben Curtis both scored riding doubles. Factoring that prior to flat racing, riders Conor O’Farrell, Graham Watters and Bernard Dalton won the three steeplechase races and it might have been tempting to cue up The Beatles and U2 over the house PA.
- Antonio Gallardo, last year’s leading rider, and Horacio Karamanos, Colonial’s all-time leading rider, concluded riding doubles setting up when may become one of the more contested riding titles in recent memory. Four riders are tied with two wins apiece after one day.
- Trainer Niall Saville, winless in his first 21 starts of the year, trained back-to-back winners in races nine and 10 with longshot Next Episode (29-1) and Atmidnight (3-1). He was the only trainer to double.
- Nick’s Picks found four winners on the twelve-race card to scratch out a modest profit on top winners, a good start to the meet.
- Handle for opening day was $2,882,014, not bad for opening on the same day as Saratoga.
- Late word on Friday’s dismal weather forecast is improving as there are indications that the dripline for a coastal rain event is moving east providing some hope for a modest rain event.
RACE 7
Might be best to start from the outer gate and work inside despite some potential early speed from the rail that shouldn’t hold.
| 9. Splash of Jack | One of three second time starters than finished within two lengths of the winner in their first start, Ferris’ filly more recently. |
| 5. Thy Name Is Woman | Karamanos returns for the Trombetta/Johnson duo looking for a steady run not a steadied trip. |
| 12. Daisy My Name | Like Splash of Jack, Bailes’ filly is a four-year-old that had a solid first start but back in 2023. |
RACE 8
Eleven more experienced maidens nearly all contenders but few have a lot of experience on the turf.
| 8. Short Skirts | Shug is confident enough with Short Skirts to switch to the turf after a near miss on the dirt a Monmouth that felt like a win. |
| 3. Argan | Would be surprised if Argan doesn’t have the lead at some point of race, but will she keep it until the end? |
| 6. Promise to Appear | Clement gives a start to a Mitole-sired first timer that spend the first half of the summer at Saratoga. |
RACE 9
The finale has a good field of twelve maidens, none with more than seven starts in their career, a fresh rising group.
| 4. Roundtop | At three different tracks, including Colonial last summer, Motion’s War Front colt has yet to finish out of the money. |
| 5. Faith’s Spirit | Pretty sharp pace chase for Bowersock’s three-year-old finally showed up in late stretch in last start. Measured today. |
| 2. Deuteronomy | Perhaps not the right field to pick a first time starter even for show, but in the mornings when directed seems to show up for Shug. |
Picture of the day
Off and running
Jockey Gavin Ashton and Libitina won the first flat race of the meet, a maiden claimer for two-year-old fillies. Libitina is trained by Carlos Munoz for CM Thoroughbreds. Ashton won two on opening day. Photo by Nick Hahn.
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