Nick's Picks: Colonial Downs picks July 18, 2024 * The Racing Biz

Nick’s Picks: Colonial Downs picks July 18, 2024

The Biz
July 18, 2024

He’s probably the only public handicapper who’s ‘capped every race at Colonial Downs since Day One, and he’s back for more in 2024: Nick’s Picks returns with picks and analysis for every day of the Colonial meet.

DATE/POST TIME: July 18/11:45 (steeplechase races), with the first flat race at 1:30
RACES: 12
CARRYOVERS: None

RACE 1

STEEPLECHASE – Last week the meet started off with a steeplechase winner first time over jumps, don’t be scared of first timers here.

5. Palio	First US start after four tries in England over jumps and five on the flat. Rider Graham Watters knows both continents.
9. Bee Well	Kingsley has a winner in the meet already and starts an English Channel gelding for the first time over jumps.
3. Fingal	Won on the flat at closing one on a route. With the last jump on the backstretch, will be asked to be similar here.

RACE 2

STEEPLECHASE – A deep field of twelve, most single-race winners, face each other in a handicap from 158 pounds down.

11. Auchincruive	If you like Fingal (above) at all, then you should like Brion’s Auchincruive who won at Foxfield by four lengths over Fingal
2. Exuma	Irish-bred gelding may have found his calling with two seconds in his first two jump starts, one of those to Juulstone at Great Meadow.
6. Lightning Ridge	Brion’s Lightning Ridge has that highest rating and carries 158, up from 122 in his last start on the flat at Parx.

RACE 3

STEEPLECHASE – Not many options versus Gold Charm won two at Colonial last summer and Jimmy Dan is undefeated over jumps.

2. Jimmy Dan	High weight awarded to Riverdee’s jump acer who has been dominant and undefeated in his first steeplechase starts.
8. Gold Charm	I tried to find a way to better these top two but couldn’t find a justifiable stance to take. Shots get long after the top two.
4. Oscar Winner	Young’s Foxfield winner bettered two here in his win but the Percy Werner outing was perplexing.

RACE 4

Two first-time starters won on the dirt in Saturday’s first two races. There are five of them here.

6. Gas Alley	After back-to-back bullet works at Churchill, does Lauer’s two-year-old have any race left? He’s certainly screaming for a race.
3. Thrilla	Another impressive worker is Thrilla, who was best at Keeneland in the morning on July 6th, among a big group.
1. Batter Up	Might feel better about Stidham’s More Than Ready if he wasn’t a May foal on the rail, but if he gets out, watch out.

RACE 5

On the dirt again, veteran Cheetara, the Skipat winner at Pimlico on Preakness day in 2023, faces worthy contenders.

3. Cheetara	Similar to Didia, Cheetara came from South American to Colonial and won. Class carries today despite layoff and last stakes start.
4. Lady Radler	Lady likes to win on the front end and the Dogwood winner at Churchill last fall has a chance to fly solo.
6. Mattitude	Ruiz returns looking for the hat trick but sees a different level of racing here.

RACE 6

A Breeder’s Cup starter is featured in the first flat turf race of the day where turf experience meets talent trying a new surface.

4. Blameitonmymomma	Shortening up a furlong in the sprint and dropping into claimers may be enough to Gallardo an edge off the synthetic.
3. Oxymore	Sanchez gets the mount on the 2022 Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint starter that won the Skidmore at Saratoga.
6. Burningupthedough	McMahon’s three-year-old may be the most accomplished of this group in the last three months, a threat to wire.

NICK’S NOTES

Picks continue below.
The Nick’s Picks win percentage so far is a morsel over 38%, a great percentage when handicapping races. The downside is that when Saturday’s card got saturated with Friday rainfall and then scratches, the win payouts couldn’t keep pace, leading to a negative margin. Nick’s Picks swept the Pick 3 for the “preview” stakes races, but the payout on that particular wager was $4.00 even.
Saturday’s card features the first of the Virginia restricted stakes races that return Galilei in the Brookmeade, Passion Play in the Edward P. Evans, Determined Kingdom in the Punch Line, and Chambeau in the Gilpin/Petty, all participants that have won the stakes they are entered in either last year or in a prior edition.
The combined distance of the steeplechase races on todays card is 54 furlongs, nearly the same length as the 58 & ½ furlongs of the remaining nine races on the card after jump racing is over. The winning all-steeplechase Pick 3 last Thursday paid $321.50 for a $1 wager, over eighty times the amount of last Saturday’s all-stakes Pick 3.
Heading into weekend #2 of racing, Horacio Karamanos has three wins on the meet followed by Kendrick Carmouche, Gavin Ashton, Ben Curtis and Antonio Gallardo, all with a couple of wins. Trainer Carlos Munoz leads in the trainer standings with three wins over Niall Saville who has two.

RACE 7

The turf is the new frontier for several here among the maiden claimers where long resumes aren’t preferred..

2. Hallelujah Harris	In his first turf attempt, Desourmeaux colt gets the services of Curtis, who knows something about the turf.
5. Holy Alimony	In his second start, both on the turf, look for Trevor McCarthy to improve the placing of a well-bred turf horse.
6. Bourbon Strait	It’s not oftern that you see a horse at 5-2 in the morning line lose by 97+ lengths in their last start, but that was over jumps.

RACE 8

Big Beyers come in with Lightner’s mare off a Florida layoff and a perfect four-for-four at Colonial in her career.

4. Sol Hope	Five career wins in fifteen starts, 80% of them at Colonial where she has won at various different levels.
7. You’re the One	The best chance to beat Sol Hope may lay in the first turf start of You’re the One, undefeated in 2023 in one on the CNL dirt.
2. Our Strong Vows	It was really Eagle Point that gave Gavin Ashton his first audition at Colonial in 2023 and they are teaming up again at a winning distance.

RACE 9

A blend of significant class droppers and those with long histories in maiden claimers, many seeing the turf for the first time..

6. Where’s Charlie	Desormeaux’s pupil has a start in the meet already, a near miss at this level, comes back quickly looking to graduate.
2. Conflicted	Huge class drop for the New York shipper off a layoff previously trained by McPeek. Mornings are encouraging.
4. Zaino	Among the best Beyers in the field is a Vino Russo colt looking to make his 14th start the charm.

RACE 10

Deep field of twelve “non winners other than” with a talented AE to also watch for mostly seeking their second win in a turf sprint.

7. Hidden Vase	Lightly raced three-year-old filly of Danner’s broke her maiden well in April and has worked well coming into this start.
9. Buckin’ Great	Surprised that Robb’s filly didn’t get more morning line with her impressive starts but trying the turf for the first time.
11. Wise and Elegant	Feargal gets the call on Cibelli’s Hard Spun older filly that won at Colonial last year and may handle a little softer ground if needed.

RACE 11

Among these eight two-year-olds are five career starts, only one of those on the turf, among the three that have started.

8. Battle On	Stidham and Curtis team up on a well-bred More Than Ready colt with solid mornings in his past for Jessica Steinbrenner.
4. Baytown Guvnah	If it all came down to mornings, McEntee’s colt may be the standout here. Galloping Gavin gets in the mount.
3. Curahee	A switch to the turf may be all that David Ross’s young colt needs to improve off his first start.

RACE 12

10. Grandma’s Pudding	Angel’s mare runs better on the firm going when on turf and recently has been sharp on the synthetic.
11. Girls House	Two wins at Colonial last year before a natural advance to allowance company that was a “heat check.”
2. Fashionista	Recently won on the dirt by 13+ lengths, yet 0-for-13 on the turf. Some of that talent must come through.