Nick's Picks: Colonial Downs picks July 19, 2024 * The Racing Biz

Nick’s Picks: Colonial Downs picks July 19, 2024

Nick Hahn
July 19, 2024

He’s probably the only public handicapper who’s ‘capped every race at Colonial Downs since Day One, and he’s back for more in 2024: Nick’s Picks returns with picks and analysis for every day of the Colonial meet.

DATE/POST TIME: July 19/4:30
RACES: 9
CARRYOVERS: Pick 6, $1,139

RACE 1

Good spot for a few local trainers to pick up their first win of the meet after testing the turf and coming back to dirt.

5. Flinny Tin Tin	The speed from dirt routes should carry forward to six furlongs after the turf try at Laurel didn’t pan out for Allen.
4. Shut It Cali	Last year this California Chrome filly ran second and third at this level last summer at Colonial, surely win be in the money.
2. Cajun Expectation	Longshot Leanne may be better than this third saddling an older filly back on the dirt since winning at Gulfstream.

RACE 2

Both sides of the daily double are on the dirt with several here capable of scoring Beyers in the eighties.

5. Arden’sluckytobe	McClure’s five-year-old gelding isn’t the only speed but may be capable of separating from it as he did in the spring.
3. Greeley and Ben	If Arden’s is challenged then ten-year-old Greeley and Ben would benefit the most and has the class to overtake.
2. Absolute Grit	Expect an more experienced ride from Curtis aboard a seasoned veteran who rarely finished out of the money.

RACE 3

First on the turf today features two for Trombetta in a six-horse field going a mile looking to graduate into winners.

4. Come Rain Or Shine	Even when Trombetta’s Nyquist gelding finishes sixth, he’s not far off the lead. He’s been close on the turf several times.
5. Master of Malice	Brittany Russell’s colt had a sharp uptick in his first turf attempt. Shortening a sixteenth may help.
1. Starlifter	Schoenthal’ gelding is square with Come Rain Or Shine head to head, outfinishing him in his last start.

RACE 4

Paper Mansion for Ness goes for his 8th win in a row in a mile Starter Optional Claiming on the turf.

6. Paper Mansion	Hard to look passed the 12 1s in the last column of the PPs. Great claim in 2022 for Jagger/Longhall and switch to turf.
3. Inanna’s Quest	In five of her six last setbacks, all no worse than fourth, Ashby’s mare faced Paper Mansion.
9. Gold Digging Broad	Perhaps the best chance to upset would be improving filly of Vera’s with Karamanos.

RACE 5

Reaching the time of the year where two-year-olds are getting at least some experience, only two here are first timers.

4. Glamourcents	Experience does matter and Lightner’s filly has two credible dirt efforts at Chruchill. Tomlinson’s that suggest the turf will work for her.
6. Misty Sunday	It’s been over three months since Misty finished last in her first start leaving the gate last. Improves today with Galloping Gavin.
1. Burner Account	Casse’s filly chased a quick pace on the turf in her only start. She’ll improve today but has a long way to go to win.

RACE 6

The “never won two races” have an edge in this condition except for Zip Line to Heaven, a popular gray at Colonial.

8. Lothario	Sharp 2024 debut at Laurel for a win with a clean face for Big Lick’s gelding. Could see another decent price again.
6. Eastbostonbenny	Klesaris starts a gelding for the first time on the turf with solid ratings and performances on the Gulfstream synthetic.
2. Zip Line to Heaven	Certainly familiar to Colonial is Johnson and Trombetta’s gelding making his sixth career start where he broke his maiden.

NICK’S NOTES

Picks continue below.
Steeplechase rider Jaime Bargary nearly hit the All-Steeplechase Pick 3 at Colonial Downs, instead settling for the double. With Walk The Warrior ($10.80) in the opener and then Exuma ($7.60) in the second, the ground was laid for Bargary for what would have been a remarkable riding triple. A riding double in his pocket, Bargary on Artistic Choice drew within a length of the leader in the lane but was denied by Kitten Around with Stephen Mulqueen aboard. Bargary currently leads the meet in steeplechase wins with the pair.
In addition to Bargary’s double, jockeys Forest Boyce, Denis Araujo and Jevian Toledo also had doubles, but these aren’t the jockeys that previously had riding doubles. Toledo’s doubles gave trainer Brittany Russell a training double and were his first wins since April 20, as he had been out for injury. Horacio Karamanos, Gavton Ashton, Ben Curtis and Antonio Gallardo tallied opening day riding doubles. Kendrick Carmouche had a riding double on July 13. Are you counting them? Nine different jockeys with riding doubles in the meet over the first three days of racing. The riding title for the meet is going to be compelling, with Horacio Karamanos currently solely in the lead with three. That used to be a day for him.

RACE 7

In this claiming turf sprint, three have five career starts at Colonial Downs with at least one win.

6. Goodluckchuck	It’s been a long time since this 45-race veteran has seen the turf, but it might be enough to break through in 2024.
5. Slippin Jimmy	A quarter of his starts have been at Colonial, where a third of his wins have been. The math says he likes this course.
4. Backwoods Boogie	The only win by Eppler’s gelding in two years has been at Colonial but he’s earns checks everywhere he runs.

RACE 8

Eleven turf sprinters slated in a turf sprint where a pace advantage may be a plus for those less talented on paper.

1. Byrd of Eden	A small class drop after a solid switch to turf at Monmonth may be the difference for Allen’s newest resident.
8. Lita	Klesaris had a great start to the Colonial meet a few years ago, brings one back to the turf after improving starts on synthetic.
3. Mrs. Rip	Tomlinson tries the turf with his young filly that is carrying a high Tomlinson rating and drops in class.

RACE 9

Small Field makes his twelfth start at Colonial in the fifth straight turf sprint to end the card, a field of eleven.

11. Boss Is a Pal	Before Stettinius’ gelding lost in his last start, he rattled off three wins in turf sprints near this level.
5. Jupiter Blues	The winner’s circle may elude Jupiter Blues once more, but he is going well on different surfaces. There are more wins ahead.
9. Small Field	His twelve starts at Colonial includes a win each of the last two years.