Laurel Park picks and ponderings: July 20, 2024
In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…
Post time: 12:25 p.m.
Carryovers:
Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $0
Jackpot Super High 5 — $1,214
Late Pick 5 — $0
Check out our other handicapping here!
RACE 1: CLAIMING $20,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES
4-3-5-1
#4 Magical Monarch (2-1) was forced into setting faster fractions than he might’ve liked against better last out, but he’s the clear-cut speed of this field, and should be able to do this own thing on the front end. When he’s left alone out there, he’s especially potent. #3 Malinois (5-2) gets class relief after facing much better rivals in his last few starts. Last out at Delaware Park, he chased favored frontrunner Willy D’s and held second while that rival went gate-to-wire. A similar scenario may unfold here against Magical Monarch. #5 Energy Efficient (7-2) exits the same race as Magical Monarch, in which he tried to chase the pace while wide and faded. He tends to sit close to the leaders and fade while holding on for a share. If he can work out a ground-saving trip, he might be able to last a bit longer.
RACE 2: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $20,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)
1-3-7-4
Let’s try a Jamie Ness/Jaime Rodriguez early double, shall we? #1 Kadri (9-5) ran on grass last out for just the third time in 58 starts, and took to the surface, repelling early challenges to beat a first-level field under a drive. He should get to the rail and the lead once gain and be able to hold off these types. #3 Charmed (2-1) made his first start off a seven-month layoff a winning one last out, coming from just off the pace to beat gems of a slightly lesser water going away. He’ll take advantage if Kadri falters. #7 Boss Is a Pal (5-1) saw his three-race winning streak snapped last out in a total non-effort. He has very in-and-out form, but his “in” contends here.
RACE 3: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, MD-BRED/SIRED, 1 MILE
6-1-3-2
#6 Viennese Waltz (5-2) has improved with each dirt start since her career debut last July. She ran a solid second to future Maryland-bred champion Kissedbyanangel in her 2-year-old finale, then ran a respectable third, with a career-best brisnet figure of 85, in her first start of the season last out. She has great late pace figures and has won going the one-turn mile in the past. #1 Society Ball (9-2) finished a game second to next-out winner Golden Charm two starts back and has had some solid workouts since a flat try last out. She showed some promise over the winter and spring and will try to put it all together today. #3 Bossyness (3-1) led most of the way and fought on last out at Parx, and should control the pace here under Jaime Rodriguez, who knows how to ride the one-turn mile better than anyone.
RACE 4: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE (GRASS)
1-4-7-5
#1 Northern Tick Tock (3-1) made his first start of the year last out and ran a game second while outfinishing a few of these. He ran a solid 78 that day, right in the range he needs to win this, and around where he was running when in ascending form towards the end of last year. #4 Blame the Tux (2-1) went off favored at this level last out, and saved ground early, got shuffled back on the turn, and made good ground when clear to finish third. He should improve on the rider switch to Jaime Rodriguez, and will try to avoid getting into so much trouble after working out a similar trip as last time. #7 Crossland (7-2) was third behind Northern Tick Tock last out, as he failed to take advantage of class relief as the favorite. He’ll rate off the pace and should at least hang around for a share.
RACE 5: CLAIMING $7,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS
2-6-3-7
#2 Sweet Heidelberg (8-5) has run in the 70s four times in her last five starts. Her only subpar effort in recent times came on the Charles Town bullring two starts back. The only other one capable of regularly running that fast is #6 Flat Discount (6-1), who has the opposite problem. She’s raced well at Charles Town in her last few starts, including a fourth behind the country’s winningest horse in 2023, Divine Fashion, in her last start. While she hasn’t done much on larger ovals recently, she has won on them in the past, primarily at Mahoning Valley and Mountaineer. If she takes to Laurel’s larger strip, she’s an interesting alternative. #3 Bravo Zulu (10-1) is in ascending form between Charles Town and Delaware and should show speed on the cutback from a mile.
RACE 6: MAIDEN CLAIMING $45,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 5 1/2 FURLONGS
6-3-9-1
I was looking forward to betting #6 Reggie Runs Rogue (6-1) when he was originally entered for his debut on June 30, considering his interesting pedigree. All three of his siblings to race won at either first or second asking. He had some sharp drills going into the June 30 race, and has worked well twice since then. While he’s facing a tougher field than he would’ve last out, he’s still intriguing. #3 Summerinthecountry (4-1) showed improvement at second asking last out, setting the early pace, fighting on in the stretch when challenged, and holding second. J.G. Torrealba gets in the saddle for the first time. First-timer #9 Brewmaster (8-1) is a half-brother to a bevy of local stars, including Renaissance Rosie, Taco Supream, and Artful Splatter. He sports a short but stout worktab for Mens Grille Racing and Jerry Robb. That team, of course, has already teamed up for a maiden win at Laurel this year, with Studlydoright.
RACE 7: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, MD-RESTRICTED, 1 MILE (GRASS)
5-6-1-4
#5 Naval Empire (9-5) has figures that tower over those of the race, having run back-to-back marks in the mid-80s in her two starts this year. She came from very far off a hot pace to finish third by a half-length last out; both rivals who beat her got big early jumps. She usually sits much closer to the pace, and her closing kick will be tough to hold off if she stays close. #6 Angel Art (5-1) finished a strong-closing second last out, reeling in loose leader Touisset while being outkicked by victorious Sweeterthanwhiskey. She gets a distance test here, but nothing about her sprint form suggests she can’t handle more ground. #1 Oncourtcommentator (8-5) won going away in visually impressive fashion on debut last out. While her figure of 73 wasn’t that impressive, she has plenty of room to improve at second asking for Brittany Russell.
RACE 8: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS
7-3-4-5
#7 Kitten’s Appeal (2-1) ran a big race last out at Monmouth Park. She raced wide on the pace, kicked on in the stretch while the remainder of the early leaders faltered, and fended off the late rally of Take Charge Chloe to win by a neck with an impressive 95. It was a nice bounceback effort following a dull race at Aqueduct two starts back, and she’ll be heard to beat if she comes anywhere close to that here. #3 Goodnightngodbless (6-1) has no early speed, but plenty of late kick, a combination that can leave her backers sweating. Still, she’s crossed the wire first four times in her last five races, oftentimes by close margins in either direction, and gets her class test here after success against first-level foes. #4 Bourbon Wildcat (5-2) rated off the pace and kicked on to beat starter optional claiming foes last out at much the best with a season’s-best 87, her third straight ascendant figure. She just missed second in her last try at this level to Night Cap, who won the Dashing Beauty Stakes at Delaware in her next start.
RACE 9: CLAIMING $45,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)
1-4-5-7
#1 Always Fun (12-1) is one of five (!) last-out maiden breakers in the field. He sat the trip and won going away second off the bench in that victory, improving 13 points off of his sophomore debut with a 78. That kind of effort squarely puts him into contention against these. #4 The Paddock Pastor (3-1) adds blinkers for his debut for the Brittany Russell barn. He ran two big figures in his first two outings, but failed to settle last out and showed little. If he calms down, he’s dangerous. #5 Longbranch Lou (5-2) goes second off the claim for the Nolan Ramsey barn, which has been on fire this meet, and looks to sit the trip from just off the pace. He broke his maiden by open lengths at Pimlico in his first start for Ramsey.
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