Nick’s Picks: Colonial Downs picks July 20, 2024
He’s probably the only public handicapper who’s ‘capped every race at Colonial Downs since Day One, and he’s back for more in 2024: Nick’s Picks returns with picks and analysis for every day of the Colonial meet.
- DATE/POST TIME: July 20, 2024/1:30
- RACES: 11
- CARRYOVERS: Pick 6, $3,236
RACE 1
Trainer Robbie Bailes draws the first two positions from the rail in a six horse field on the dirt. Both are legitimate here.
1. Grand Opening | After the slop and then the turf, it’s back to the dirt for Bailes’ three-year-old who won by seven before testing New York. |
4. Rakia | Sanchez gets the mount on a recent claim from Morgan’s Ford Farm and shortens to a sprint. |
2. Don’t Get Caught | Name is strategy for Bailes gelding coming off an impressive maiden front running score by six lengths plus. |
RACE 2
Nice field of nine maidens sprinting to close the double on the dirt that includes two by leading trainer of the meet Carlos Munoz.
9. Collected Dreams | Four and a half furlongs at CT must feel like five and a half at CNL, still one turn, for Munoz’s filly who had 3 seconds at a higher level. |
7. Style and Profile | Small drop for Allen’s Gun Runner filly saddling Gallardo who may prefer sprints based on last start. |
6. Balenciaga Betty | May have to move up this older filly with solid east coast starts after a three-year-old campaign in California. |
RACE 3
First race on the turf is a route for maiden claimers where most drop down from MSW hungry to break through.
1. Union Bulldog | Though De Paz’s gelding comes from a claiming start, he rallied in his first turf route start last month at Laurel. |
8. Border War | Had the lead on Union Bulldog in his last start while engaged in a quick pace. Shortens a sixteenth today. |
4. Oconee Life | Gallardo may improve the finish of this Cairo Prince gray who should show some early speed. |
RACE 4
The $125,000 Brookemeade returns the top three and fifth finisher from last year’s running including Galilei, its winner.
1. Tufani | Stidham’s filly was caught late in last year’s Brookmeade but has had best starts of that group since with two wins with Curtis. |
6. Galilei | Rubber match head to head with Tufani set here. Trombetta’s mare has an affinity for Colonial Downs. |
4. Splash of Jack | Closing run in a turf sprint with the first start of Allen’s older filly who still has upside testing a turf route. |
RACE 5
Repo Rocks returns to Virginia for the first time since foaling in the $125,000 Edward Evans facing Passion Play making his 9th CNL start.
7. Repo Rocks | Veteran Repo Rocks is most accomplished for his career, nearly winning the Carter Handicap, however this is first turf in a while. |
5. Passion Play | Certainly the most proven on the turf of this group with four turf wins at Colonial alone, including an Evans and two Bert Allens. |
4. Hay Chief | Like Repo Rocks, Hay Chief is making his first start on the turf in some time after some sharp tallies in dirt routes. |
RACE 6
Schoenthal’s two-time Punch Line winner returns to face Trombetta’s prolific CNL stakes winner, both have won the Jamestown.
1. Determined Kingdom | Schoenthal must be encouraged by the ’24 debut of Audley Farm bred five-year old who wins more at Colonial than he doesn’t. |
6. Embolden | Embolden’s ’24 debut didn’t go quite as well but should Determined Kingdom not deliver, he’s your next best chance. |
2. Ship the Goods | Farrior’s four-year-old gelding is capable of rising up to win a turf sprint but hasn’t done so recently. |
RACE 7
The target in the Glipin/Petty is the reigning winner, seven-year-old Chambeau, but remember he didn’t start racing until he was five.
7. Mystic Seaport | Chambeau raced well at Colonial Downs last summer. Mystic Seaport has raced well since Colonial Downs last summer. |
3. Chambeau | Chambeau makes his ’24 debut in the Gilpin/Petty and has Allen as his new trainer and the same jockey, Karamanos. |
4. Low Mileage | Salzman’s three-year-old filly is the third horse in this field that won the Jamestown as a two-year-old. |
RACE 8
Moderately raced maidens with a considerable number of starts but hardly any with experience in a turf route.
2. Risky Beesness | Not likely to get 12-1 today on Cibelli horse shortening to a mile with Forest Boyce aboard. |
10. Candy Doll | Chased Risky Beesness within a few lengths for most of their last start together. |
1. Thursday Girl | Schoenthal’s pair both capable but prefer the Jamestown starter who battled on the Colonial turf last summer. |
RACE 9
Deep field of eleven where the class and timing of the maiden win in the “non-winners” condition matters.
8. Breakwater | Shug’s five year old broke his maiden at Colonial last summer and once lost to Virginia Derby winner Capensis. |
7. Magic Heart | Starter allowance accounts for second win for Schuh’s colt who likes the firm going. |
1. St. John’s | Fisher’s four-year-old will be conditioned despite poor jump outings, and has been running well of late. |
RACE 10
Lightly raced maidens in a field of twelve with much more turf experience at a mile, experiences good and poor.
11. Short Skirts | Tomlinson suggest a mile on the turf will work for Shug’s filly in first attempt on the turf after a solid Monmonth start on dirt. |
10. Purr Factor | West’s new filly has run consistent Beyers on the turf at three different racetracks on the turf and in routes. |
4. Biscuit | Morgan’s Ford route runner had a nice fourth of July weekend work at Pimlico. Returning to a mile helps. |
RACE 11
The turf route PIC4 concludes with a diverse maiden field of twelve that includes a jumpers, first time starters and four-year-olds.
1. Oskar Martinez | Sharp, spreadout, consistent starts for Delacour’s four-year-old filly also solid in the morning. |
9. Righthere Rightnow | Last race for Stidham’s gelding was pullled from the turf. He’s rested and well-bred. |
3. Deuteronomy | Shug’s Kitten’s Joy gray has been working at Belmont to debut at Colonial. Turf pedigree is solid. |
Picture of the day
Arden’sluckytobe
Arden’sluckytobe outgamed Triple Elvis to win a second-level allowance Friday evening at Colonial Downs, blazing six furlongs in 1:07.87 — just a hundredth of a second off the track record. Arden’luckytobe is trained by Diana McClure for Holly House Farm and was ridden to victory by Tais Lyapustina.
![](https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/53868130497_3433294463_b.jpg)
![](https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/53868130497_3433294463_b.jpg)
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