Nick’s Picks: Colonial Downs picks July 20, 2024

  • userThe Biz
  • dateJuly 20, 2024

He’s probably the only public handicapper who’s ‘capped every race at Colonial Downs since Day One, and he’s back for more in 2024: Nick’s Picks returns with picks and analysis for every day of the Colonial meet.

  • DATE/POST TIME: July 20, 2024/1:30
  • RACES: 11
  • CARRYOVERS: Pick 6, $3,236

RACE 1

Trainer Robbie Bailes draws the first two positions from the rail in a six horse field on the dirt. Both are legitimate here.

1. Grand OpeningAfter the slop and then the turf, it’s back to the dirt for Bailes’ three-year-old who won by seven before testing New York.
4. RakiaSanchez gets the mount on a recent claim from Morgan’s Ford Farm and shortens to a sprint.
2. Don’t Get CaughtName is strategy for Bailes gelding coming off an impressive maiden front running score by six lengths plus.

RACE 2

Nice field of nine maidens sprinting to close the double on the dirt that includes two by leading trainer of the meet Carlos Munoz.

9. Collected DreamsFour and a half furlongs at CT must feel like five and a half at CNL, still one turn, for Munoz’s filly who had 3 seconds at a higher level.
7. Style and ProfileSmall drop for Allen’s Gun Runner filly saddling Gallardo who may prefer sprints based on last start.
6. Balenciaga BettyMay have to move up this older filly with solid east coast starts after a three-year-old campaign in California.

RACE 3

First race on the turf is a route for maiden claimers where most drop down from MSW hungry to break through.

1. Union BulldogThough De Paz’s gelding comes from a claiming start, he rallied in his first turf route start last month at Laurel.
8. Border WarHad the lead on Union Bulldog in his last start while engaged in a quick pace. Shortens a sixteenth today.
4. Oconee LifeGallardo may improve the finish of this Cairo Prince gray who should show some early speed.

RACE 4

The $125,000 Brookemeade returns the top three and fifth finisher from last year’s running including Galilei, its winner.

1. TufaniStidham’s filly was caught late in last year’s Brookmeade but has had best starts of that group since with two wins with Curtis.
6. GalileiRubber match head to head with Tufani set here. Trombetta’s mare has an affinity for Colonial Downs.
4. Splash of JackClosing run in a turf sprint with the first start of Allen’s older filly who still has upside testing a turf route.

RACE 5

Repo Rocks returns to Virginia for the first time since foaling in the $125,000 Edward Evans facing Passion Play making his 9th CNL start.

7. Repo RocksVeteran Repo Rocks is most accomplished for his career, nearly winning the Carter Handicap, however this is first turf in a while.
5. Passion PlayCertainly the most proven on the turf of this group with four turf wins at Colonial alone, including an Evans and two Bert Allens.
4. Hay ChiefLike Repo Rocks, Hay Chief is making his first start on the turf in some time after some sharp tallies in dirt routes.

RACE 6

Schoenthal’s two-time Punch Line winner returns to face Trombetta’s prolific CNL stakes winner, both have won the Jamestown.

1. Determined KingdomSchoenthal must be encouraged by the ’24 debut of Audley Farm bred five-year old who wins more at Colonial than he doesn’t.
6. EmboldenEmbolden’s ’24 debut didn’t go quite as well but should Determined Kingdom not deliver, he’s your next best chance.
2. Ship the GoodsFarrior’s four-year-old gelding is capable of rising up to win a turf sprint but hasn’t done so recently.

RACE 7

The target in the Glipin/Petty is the reigning winner, seven-year-old Chambeau, but remember he didn’t start racing until he was five.

7. Mystic SeaportChambeau raced well at Colonial Downs last summer. Mystic Seaport has raced well since Colonial Downs last summer.
3. ChambeauChambeau makes his ’24 debut in the Gilpin/Petty and has Allen as his new trainer and the same jockey, Karamanos.
4. Low MileageSalzman’s three-year-old filly is the third horse in this field that won the Jamestown as a two-year-old.

RACE 8

Moderately raced maidens with a considerable number of starts but hardly any with experience in a turf route.

2. Risky BeesnessNot likely to get 12-1 today on Cibelli horse shortening to a mile with Forest Boyce aboard.
10. Candy DollChased Risky Beesness within a few lengths for most of their last start together.
1. Thursday GirlSchoenthal’s pair both capable but prefer the Jamestown starter who battled on the Colonial turf last summer.

RACE 9

Deep field of eleven where the class and timing of the maiden win in the “non-winners” condition matters.

8. BreakwaterShug’s five year old broke his maiden at Colonial last summer and once lost to Virginia Derby winner Capensis.
7. Magic HeartStarter allowance accounts for second win for Schuh’s colt who likes the firm going.
1. St. John’sFisher’s four-year-old will be conditioned despite poor jump outings, and has been running well of late.

RACE 10

Lightly raced maidens in a field of twelve with much more turf experience at a mile, experiences good and poor.

11. Short SkirtsTomlinson suggest a mile on the turf will work for Shug’s filly in first attempt on the turf after a solid Monmonth start on dirt.
10. Purr FactorWest’s new filly has run consistent Beyers on the turf at three different racetracks on the turf and in routes.
4. BiscuitMorgan’s Ford route runner had a nice fourth of July weekend work at Pimlico. Returning to a mile helps.

RACE 11

The turf route PIC4 concludes with a diverse maiden field of twelve that includes a jumpers, first time starters and four-year-olds.

1. Oskar MartinezSharp, spreadout, consistent starts for Delacour’s four-year-old filly also solid in the morning.
9. Righthere RightnowLast race for Stidham’s gelding was pullled from the turf. He’s rested and well-bred.
3. DeuteronomyShug’s Kitten’s Joy gray has been working at Belmont to debut at Colonial. Turf pedigree is solid.

Picture of the day

Arden’sluckytobe

Arden’sluckytobe outgamed Triple Elvis to win a second-level allowance Friday evening at Colonial Downs, blazing six furlongs in 1:07.87 — just a hundredth of a second off the track record. Arden’luckytobe is trained by Diana McClure for Holly House Farm and was ridden to victory by Tais Lyapustina.

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