Spa selections 2024: Saratoga picks July 21
Joseph Aiello- July 20, 2024
In Spa Selections, Saratoga correspondent Joseph Aiello provides Saratoga picks for a handful of key races at Saratoga, including all of the exciting stakes action!
Follow along all meet with all the exciting action (and good betting opportunities)!
Check out our other handicapping here!
RACE 1: Grade I A.P. Smithwick Memorial Handicap
1. #7 L’Imperator (5-2) – Comes off a grade I win and has been finishing in the money at a high clip, hitting the board in all three tries this year
2. #5 Abaan (9-5) – A winner of four straight, this gelding by Traver’s winner Will Take Charge has run his best since switching to steeplechases with a good chance here
3. #4 Ziggle Pops (6-1) – Finished a close third to L’Imperator last time in a grade I, and should be in the mix here given his recent performances
4. #2 Freddy Flintshire (10-1) – Hasn’t been close in his recent grade I efforts, but has hit the board in all three at Saratoga and should be in the mix here
RACE 5: Grade II Shuvee Stakes
1. #5 Just Katherine (9-2) – May not be her ideal distance, but has won twice at nine furlongs and has two good starts over this track with a near grade II win last time
2. #1 Shotgun Hottie (3-2) – This classy mare by Gun Runner has shown the best form going this distance, and likely wins with a top tier effort here
3. #3 Raging Sea (7-5) – Ran into a better horse in last year’s Alabama winner Randomized in the Grade I Ogden Phipps, so should improve off that drop
4. #4 Misty Veil (4-1) – Venti Valentine might be a safer play to finish in the money, but this mare has more upside and class and could be a factor with a repeat of her last try
RACE 9: Mdn 100k
1. #3 Black Dog (7-2) – Gaffalione hops aboard this filly by Quality Road who had the best debut of any of the starters in here, and can win with improvement from that try
2. #6 Salted (8-1) – Ran a close second in her debut, and sold for $760,000 as a yearling plus Jose Ortiz and Casse are off to a great start this meet
3. #1 Kiss Me Slow (3-1) – First time starter would need to show a lot to win here, but should have the ability and tough to go against these connections right now
4. #8 Spun Candy (12-1) – Looked like she needed more distance first time out, getting an extra furlong here as one that can close well and possibly into the money
RACE 10: Alw 110000n1x
1. #6 Rocketeer (3-1) – Faded in the stretch last time in the Grade III Matt Winn, but gets class relief here with a strong jockey trainer combination
2. #8 Black Rain (8-5) – Was no match for General Partner last time out a month ago over this track, but will likely be on or near the lead with more talent than others here
3. #4 Seeking Unity (8-1) – Has finished in the money in five of six at this distance, typically running his best in a stalking position which is advantageous here
4. #3 Paddington (6-1) – Gets the nod over Grandpa’s Kid due to a bit more class and these connections of Lezcano and Rice but needs a sharp break
RACE 11: OC 45000n2x
1. #9 Liar’s Poker (6-1) – Has won three of four and won last time impressively in a race that compares well to the rest of this field with top connections
2. #10 Born Dancer (8-1) – Has been consistent even if he he hasn’t been winning recently, still a strong finisher who should be in the mix at good value
3. #1 Neural Network (5-1) – First time gelding and lasix may get over bet because of the connections, but gets another try on turf after a long layoff and has upside
4. #3 Bettrluckythangood (10-1) – Has a better turf resume than Locke and Key, and is a winner of his last two plus seems to like this distance
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