Nick's Picks: Colonial Downs picks July 25, 2024 * The Racing Biz

Nick’s Picks: Colonial Downs picks July 25, 2024

The Biz
July 25, 2024

He’s probably the only public handicapper who’s ‘capped every race at Colonial Downs since Day One, and he’s back for more in 2024: Nick’s Picks returns with picks and analysis for every day of the Colonial meet.

DATE/POST TIME: July 25/2:30
RACES: 10
CARRYOVERS: Pick 6, $3,236

RACE 1

These optional claimers have a lot of experience but not on the Colonial dirt. McCarthy is the only jockey in the field with a win in the meet.

4. Golden Candy	Consistent winner over a six-year career winning at over 25% including recently. Veteran has my respect.
1. Freedom Road	Up and comer goes for his fourth straight win and already his fifth in 2024. On the inside and has the style to wire.
6. Irish Warlock	Irish War Cry-sired veteran doesn’t win often but churns checks for place and show.

RACE 2

Six first-timers with great sires in a two-year-old dirt sprint with talented Munoz gray Twilightzone trying to draw in.

6. Scotch Chocolate	Trainer Amoss with his first starter of the meet with six-figure colt who has been sharp in the Keeneland mornings.
2. Rio Chama	Godolphin sends an American Pharoah-sired who has at least an early morning preference for Colonial.
9. Missed the Turn	Sharp improvement from slop to dirt and five furlongs to five and a half furlongs between last starts.

RACE 3

Five seven-year-olds in a field of nine for the first turf sprint on the card, this one for open claimers.

8. Kitty Quick	On the good going, Ochoa’s won at Delaware to raise his turf win percentage to 50%. Sanchez gets the mount.
7. Translate	In his return to the turf, Allen’s seven-year-old mare just missed. Only one in the field to have won at Colonial before.
2. Starry Hope	New distance for McGoey mare but one she missed by a half-length last summer at Colonial.

RACE 4

Some of the better angles in this turf mile of eleven claimers are from those trying the turf for the first time.

11. Settling Storm	“Shel” Evans’ filly from New York has turf experience in routes and won after a three-month layoff on dirt. Curtis rides for Clement.
4. Abstract Moment	A scratch eariler in the meet, Woodberry Payne’s mare has sped a 55 Beyer in six of seven.
6. Cainudothetwist	From off the jumps, Kingsley’s seven-year-old mare won at 9 panels on the turf at Colonial last summer.

RACE 5

Of the 10 two-year-olds sprinting on the turf, only two have starts. Of the four others in the AE list, only one has.

1. Buoyant	Russell switches to the turf and should find the lead before the turn. Another adjustment is blinkers.
6. Lucky Cat	Munoz’s wins have been all on the dirt but no reason his Improbable colt can’t win on the turf with Gavin Ashton aboard.
2. Go to Bingo	One of two in for Susan Cooney, this one with better works at Colonial and a better turf Tomlinson rating.

RACE 6

Two in this seven-horse are looking for their third in a row, Lute Warm for Russell and No Shom Sammy for Motion.

4. No Show Sammy Jo	No Show Sammy Jo for Motion has two wins nearly a year apart, her last start a rallying win by a neck.
3. Lute Warm	While Russell’s filly has won on the mud and firm turf of two different tracks on the front end, likely to have company there today.
6. Etheric	Augustin Stables, a legendary winning owner in Colonial’s early years, brings in well-traveled mare trained by Jonathan Thomas.

NICK’S NOTES

Picks continue below.
Trainer Mary Eppler won two races over last weekend at Colonial Downs, including the Edward P. Evans Stakes with Passion Play, now 5-for-9 at Colonial Downs. After the race winning jockey Horacio Karamanos credited Eppler for being one of the first trainers to give him an opportunity to ride when he started out in North America. There has been a large winner’s circle photo hanging in the Virginia Racing Commission office for years of Passion Play, recognizing his accomplishments since Colonial re-opened. Eppler’s win Friday night was with Backwoods Boogie, a horse she owns, with Jorge Ruiz aboard.
The Passion Play win give Eppler the unique double of winning a stakes race on the last day Colonial Downs ran, which was last Saturday of course, and the very first day that Colonial Downs ran. The latter came with Victory Gallop, who won the New Kent Stakes at nearly 9-1 paying $19.80 on September 1,1997. Mark Johnston was the winning rider that day. Later, trained by Elliot Walden and with Gary Stevens aboard, Victory Gallop finished second to Real Quiet in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness before thwarting that rival’s Triple Crown attempt in the Belmont Stakes in a legendary photo finish.
Nick’s Picks has been churning out winners at over 30%, but with the rain-soaked shortened stakes fields on Saturdays in the meet so far, still remains at the negative balance for the meet. In Colonial stakes races, Nick’s Picks has picked 6 of 7 top winners. There are some good opportunities to change the yield portion of ledger in the selections today.

RACE 7

Twelve maidens in a turf sprint as varied as they come, most with a considerable number of starts.

7. Contrivance	Another little class drop may be all that is needed for Karamanos to bring this one to the winner’s circle for Magee.
6. Optimistic Nate	A good chance for Allen to log a win despite being the first start for Optimistic Nate, who trained well in June.
3. Green Beans	With the long layoff, it’s somewhat difficult to know how Godsey’s four-year-old will run. Ran well in the distant past.

RACE 8

Twelve “non-winners of two” are largely comprised of veterans with maiden scores in their distant past, mostly in 2023.

11. Fightnomoreforever	Boniface brings down a Colonial winner from 2023 that had two sharp starts in Pennsylvania with Albert aboard.
8. First Slew	One of the better, more recent wins was a dead heat of First Slew shared at Tampa Bay Downs in April.
4. Quokka	Quokka has definately seen the toughest competition and broke his maiden at Aqueduct in a $90,000 MSW.

RACE 9

One of the best fillies in this turf route field of twelve could get in off the AE’s list, Destin for Drama.

8. Bold Look	Trying to get back to the turf is Valvo’s filly, one of the more steady and consistent runners in this field.
3. She’s Arodeoqueen	Perusing the PPs, it may be best to look for a pure class advantage among these maiden claimers.
6. Tins	A big leap forward off the layoff was shown by Ochoa’s filly in her last start at Delaware on the turf.

RACE 10

Navani, who won on the opening Saturday at Colonial Downs, could be the first dual winner of the meet in a turf route.

11. Ragtime Lady	An impressive win for Amoss’ filly at the Fairgrounds in March was at a high level and then nearly repeated at Churchill.
5. Determined First	A sharp win at Monmouth is encouraging for Determined First to erase the memory of two tough starts at Colonial last year.
7. Active	Fresh off a sharp win at Laurel last month, Motion shortens his Gun Runner filly to a mile and returns Ruiz.