Laurel Park picks and ponderings: July 28, 2024
In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…
Post time: 12:25 p.m.
Carryovers:
Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $4,457
Jackpot Super High 5 — $4,012
Late Pick 5 — $0
Check out our other handicapping here!
RACE 1: CLAIMING $12,500 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 7 FURLONGS
5-7-1-3
Happy DeFrancis Dash day to all who celebrate! #5 Tina Tina Tina (3-1) gets the slight nod in this wide-open contest. She’s run well in her last few starts on this track, and was hard-chasing third to Sheherhers and Remember Me in her last start, both of whom are better than anyone she’ll see here. #7 Determined Blue (7-2) drops in class after facing better in her last few starts, and stretches out from sub-six furlong contests. She should prompt the pace from the outside and pounce. #1 Argentina Girl (4-1) set the pace and just missed with a big performance at Aqueduct three races back. She’s struggled in her last two starts around two turns, but now cuts back in distance and should control the pace from the inside.
RACE 2: MAIDEN CLAIMING $30,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)
3-5-9-1
#3 Fouroneohsmokeshow (10-1), one of the better-named horses in the region (the Baltimore County area code is 410), improved his brisnet figure two points to a 71 second off a six-month layoff last out, closing well to miss second by three lengths despite an overland trip. He’s dropping to this level for the first time. #5 Mo Lucky (5-2) was well-bet against straight maidens on debut, but faded after a wide trip. He has plenty of room to improve at second asking for the Repole/St. Elias/Brittany Russell contingent. #9 If I Were You (10-1) finished a hard-charging fourth second off the Kelly Rubley claim last out, and has a chance to sneak into the exotics at a good number.
RACE 3: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE
3-1-5-6
#3 King’s River (7-2) has quickly improved in his last few starts, running career-top figures in back-to-back starts. He overcame some mild traffic trouble to win going away last out, beating next-out winner Squints. He’s stretching out from six furlongs here, but has run well going a mile in the past. #1 Goodafternoonoscar (2-1) has hit the board in his last three starts at this level, and held well for second after setting the pace last out at Delaware Park. He doesn’t like to win (1-for-23 lifetime), but loves getting checks, and is a good horse to key underneath in exactas and trifectas. #5 Uncle Cat (8-5) finished a traffic-filled third behind Uncle Cat last out, his first start for the Rudy Sanchez-Salomon barn, and has run in the 80s in his last four fast-track starts.
RACE 4: CONCERN STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 7 FURLONGS
2-4-3-1
Today’s first stakes race, a wide-open field of six, is named for the Maryland-bred 1994 Breeders’ Cup Classic champion. There’s plenty of speed in here, which could set things up nicely for #2 Celtic Contender. He crossed the wire first in the Star De Naskra Stakes last out, proving he can run well without Lasix with a career-best 97, but was disqualified for causing crowding leaving the chute. If the speed horses burn each other out, he’ll take full advantage. Of the speed horses, #4 Barksdale (10-1) might be the most interesting. He got caught up in duels in his last two starts and faded, but when he got the lead by himself in his prior two starts, he won going away with figures in the mid-90s. If he manages to clear to the rail and the lead, which is far from a guarantee, he could prove tough to catch. #3 Sunny Breeze (5-2) hasn’t trailed in his career, going gate-to-wire to win his first two starts at Delaware Park. This race will be his biggest class test yet, but he has plenty of raw ability.
RACE 5: CLAIMING $7,500 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE
3-4-7-2
#3 Preparefortakeoff (9-2) beat gems of a slightly lesser water three starts back with a 79, then recovered to run a solid 75 last out after flat race two starts ago. She has one of the highest ceilings in the field and a win at this distance. #4 Canoodle (8-5) got a confidence-boosting win on the lead at 1-20 at Parx last out. She had struggled in her prior recent races, but consistently ran in the upper-70s earlier this year, so a return to that form is very possible. #7 Mit Mazel (8-1) improved 11 points second off a 13-month layoff last out and looks like the main speed of the race. If she keeps moving forward, she could find herself with a big pace advantage.
RACE 6: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)
6-3-10-1
#6 Into It (7-2), shipping down here in the same contingent as Concern Stakes starter El Capi, surged to victory last out at Aqueduct in his second start back from a west coast/Midwest jaunt. He should sit a great trip near the pace under Jaime Rodriguez. #3 St. John’s (6-1) sat the trip and led briefly on a very wet grass course on Preakness day last out, but was outkicked by Desvio, who came back to win the Kent Stakes in his next start. He also lost by a neck to Fulmineo two races back, who has since won a pair of grass stakes of his own. #10 Swore (2-1) races for the first time since late February, when he set the pace in a tough 1 1/2-mile race at Gulfstream park and faded. He’s primarily run at longer distances, so Graham Motion might be looking at this race as a prep for a longer spot down the road. Still, he ran some big races last year and cannot be discounted.
RACE 7: ALMA NORTH STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 1/2 FURLONGS
6-8-10-3
The female equivalent of the DeFrancis Dash is named for the great Maryland-bred mare of the early 1970s. #6 Joke Sisi (3-1) has rapidly improved in her last few starts, and came from well off the pace to win going away at Churchill Downs last out against second-level foes. She’s getting good at the right time, and looks to be in a prime spot to win her American stakes debut. #8 Apple Picker (9-5) won the Barbara Fritchie Stakes on this track earlier this year, and ran a season’s-best 94 in the Bed O’Roses Stakes at Aqueduct last out, even though she was well-beaten. She’s a bit inconsistent, but her best will be hard to beat. #10 Charriere (15-1) is rounding back into career-best form and gets Jevian Toledo up for her local debut.
RACE 8: DEPUTED TESTAMONY STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES
6-2-5-1
The Maryland-bred 1983 Preakness champion is honored with this race. #6 Auto Glide (5-2) has won four races in a row, most recently taking the Battery Park Stakes at Delaware Park from well off the early pace. He should get a pace to close into, with Frosted Departure and Ain’t Da Beer Cold both full of early speed and capable of burning each other out. #2 Shaft’s Bullet (3-1) got caught by Auto Glide in the last jump in the Battery Park, but previously beat a strong allowance field by three lengths in his last start on this track, for his sixth victory in 11 starts here. He’ll get first jump on a potential duel. #5 Time for Trouble (2-1) has faced graded stakes company in his last few starts, and now gets some class relief. He closed only mildly in his last few starts, but might have more punch against slightly lesser.
RACE 9: FRANK J. DEFRANCIS MEMORIAL DASH, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS
3-9-6-4
The featured event of the card, and of the Laurel Park summer meet, is named for the former track president. Five months and one scratch from the Alapocas Run Stakes later, #3 Seven’s Eleven (5-1) is finally set to make his return to the races. He hasn’t been seen since finishing second to Post Time in the General George Stakes, but he’s done plenty of good work on this track, winning a pair of stakes races among six wins total here. He’s worked very well at Delaware as of late and should be in close attendance to the early pace. #9 Dean Delivers (5-2) has won back-to-back stakes races against similar, both times pressing the pace and drawing off to win impressively. He’s rediscovered his best self since arriving in Ned Allard’s barn earlier this year. #6 Sibelius (2-1) pressed the pace and held third in the Smile Spring Stakes last out, his first start since a trip to Dubai. Last year, he improved seven points in his second start back from Dubai. If he improves like that off the 98 he ran last out, look out.
RACE 10: MAIDEN CLAIMING $12,500, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 7 FURLONGS
7-5-6-1
#7 Bajan Boy (7-5) improved sharply to a 70 at second asking at Churchill Downs last out, and now ships back here after being a sick scratch from a similar spot two weeks ago. #5 A B C Ya (5-2) has consistently solid figures, but is veering dangerously close to “professional maiden” territory, having finished second four times in a row. He should get his tip and get his usual slice. #6 Coronation Time (3-1) held on for a solid second behind next-out winner Ascribe, and is the only one in the field to run in the 60s in each of his last three starts.
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