Delaware Park picks and analysis: July 31, 2024 * The Racing Biz

Delaware Park picks and analysis: July 31, 2024

Picks and analysis for this afternoon’s card from Delaware Park:

RACE 1

4. Overspent	Credible debut versus better when chasing 2-5 winner who’d just missed at Oaklawn prior; shows a work in the interim
2. Lady Liberty Belle	Homebred Constitution filly is out of a dam who won at first asking
5. Skylar’s Brother	Bland effort in latest behind winner who repeated versus allowance foes

RACE 2

9. Stylish Anna	Speedy sort’s best Beyer fig on dirt came at today’s distance; well drawn outside other speed, and JRod in the irons a positive
3. Nami	Sharp victory in latest when surviving the duel and drawing off
4. Survival Rose	Tougher company and a muddy surface weren’t to her liking last out, but drop to easier group and a fast track could be what the Doctor ordered

RACE 3

11. Precious Avary	Should be able to clear early and set moderate tempo; inclined to forgive most recent turf try versus plus group in the PTHA President’s Cup
5. Source	Lack of early foot could be a liability for this one; winner of the Christiana Whisky Decision looks like a legit racehorse, and prior try versus allowance foes was just fine
1. Tiki Bar	Keeps churning out solid efforts

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RACE 4

2. Derby Effort	Pretty zippy work tab for a 2yo filly in maiden claiming company; stablemate Lucky Flay finished third against special weight rivals earlier this month
6. Xochil	Debut against better wasn’t terrible
8. Uptown Miss	JRod back aboard runner finding easier company

RACE 5

4. Sal’s Blue Jacket	Can sit a good trip and has run credibly versus similar; lightly raced sort still has upside
10. Bramble Bay	Has kept good company, with rivals including multiple stakes winners Tufani, Thirty Thou Kelvin
7. Broadway Boogie	Appears a cut above these if she returns running; trainer Toner 2-for-32 with layoffs greater than six months

RACING NOTES

Trainers Victor Barboza, Jr. and Juan Arriagada are one-two in terms of percentage of purses earned, both exceeding 25% of available purses. Gary Capuano is third…
Among regular DelPark jockeys Gabriel Maldonado is winning at a clip that is 5.45 wins above expectations per 50 starts. Had his horses won at the rate their odds would have predicted, they would have 23.7 wins to date in 113 starts; in fact, they have 36 wins. Maldonado’s wins above expectations are nearly five times his nearest competitor; that’s Jaime Rodriguez, with 1.18 wins above expectations. Julio Hernandez, at 1.08, is the only other rider above 1.0

RACE 6

8. Spikezone	Speed of the speed hasn’t finished worse than third on the main track since 2022
2. Chief Ron	Beat similar two back and looks for stalk-and-pounce trip here
4. Captain Quint	Sharp score against four-life company last out

RACE 7

12. April Fools Andy	Good-looking effort in latest versus three-other-than company
7. Mission Man	Improving sort outran long odds when fourth in the Ben’s Cat, and added ground on offer here helps the cause
1. Smithwick’s Spice	Solid field when third last out in the Irish War Cry

RACE 8

6. Let It Rideness	Nothing last time out but prior efforts were competitive; reunited with top local pilot Rodriguez
3. Big Tone C	Galloped at 1-5 in latest but did cede much of his advantage in final furlong
7. Wesley Thomas	Has kept better company

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