Delaware Park picks and analysis: July 31, 2024

  • userThe Biz
  • dateJuly 31, 2024

Picks and analysis for this afternoon’s card from Delaware Park:

  • DATE: july 17, 2024, 12:30 p.m. first post
  • RACES ON CARD: 8
  • CARRYOVERS: None
  • POST TIME: 12:30 p.m.

RACE 1

4. OverspentCredible debut versus better when chasing 2-5 winner who’d just missed at Oaklawn prior; shows a work in the interim
2. Lady Liberty BelleHomebred Constitution filly is out of a dam who won at first asking
5. Skylar’s BrotherBland effort in latest behind winner who repeated versus allowance foes

RACE 2

9. Stylish AnnaSpeedy sort’s best Beyer fig on dirt came at today’s distance; well drawn outside other speed, and JRod in the irons a positive
3. NamiSharp victory in latest when surviving the duel and drawing off
4. Survival RoseTougher company and a muddy surface weren’t to her liking last out, but drop to easier group and a fast track could be what the Doctor ordered

RACE 3

11. Precious AvaryShould be able to clear early and set moderate tempo; inclined to forgive most recent turf try versus plus group in the PTHA President’s Cup
5. SourceLack of early foot could be a liability for this one; winner of the Christiana Whisky Decision looks like a legit racehorse, and prior try versus allowance foes was just fine
1. Tiki BarKeeps churning out solid efforts

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RACE 4

2. Derby EffortPretty zippy work tab for a 2yo filly in maiden claiming company; stablemate Lucky Flay finished third against special weight rivals earlier this month
6. XochilDebut against better wasn’t terrible
8. Uptown MissJRod back aboard runner finding easier company

RACE 5

4. Sal’s Blue JacketCan sit a good trip and has run credibly versus similar; lightly raced sort still has upside
10. Bramble BayHas kept good company, with rivals including multiple stakes winners Tufani, Thirty Thou Kelvin
7. Broadway BoogieAppears a cut above these if she returns running; trainer Toner 2-for-32 with layoffs greater than six months

RACING NOTES

  • Trainers Victor Barboza, Jr. and Juan Arriagada are one-two in terms of percentage of purses earned, both exceeding 25% of available purses. Gary Capuano is third…
  • Among regular DelPark jockeys Gabriel Maldonado is winning at a clip that is 5.45 wins above expectations per 50 starts. Had his horses won at the rate their odds would have predicted, they would have 23.7 wins to date in 113 starts; in fact, they have 36 wins. Maldonado’s wins above expectations are nearly five times his nearest competitor; that’s Jaime Rodriguez, with 1.18 wins above expectations. Julio Hernandez, at 1.08, is the only other rider above 1.0

RACE 6

8. SpikezoneSpeed of the speed hasn’t finished worse than third on the main track since 2022
2. Chief RonBeat similar two back and looks for stalk-and-pounce trip here
4. Captain QuintSharp score against four-life company last out

RACE 7

12. April Fools AndyGood-looking effort in latest versus three-other-than company
7. Mission ManImproving sort outran long odds when fourth in the Ben’s Cat, and added ground on offer here helps the cause
1. Smithwick’s SpiceSolid field when third last out in the Irish War Cry

RACE 8

6. Let It RidenessNothing last time out but prior efforts were competitive; reunited with top local pilot Rodriguez
3. Big Tone CGalloped at 1-5 in latest but did cede much of his advantage in final furlong
7. Wesley ThomasHas kept better company

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