Nick’s Picks: Colonial Downs picks August 1, 2024

  • userNick Hahn
  • dateAugust 1, 2024

He’s probably the only public handicapper who’s ‘capped every race at Colonial Downs since Day One, and he’s back for more in 2024: Nick’s Picks returns with picks and analysis for every day of the Colonial meet.

  • DATE/POST TIME: August 1/11:45 (steeplechase races), with the first flat race at 1:30
  • RACES: 12
  • CARRYOVERS: None

RACE 1

Three from better half the opening day maiden steeplechase are among five jump starters returning to Colonial Downs.

7. Moonshine TimeBrion’s Irish-bred is improving with each start including a pacesetting second place at Colonial three weeks ago, his best yet.
6. Ready for the LadyFor trainer Arch Kingsley, a sharp move forward from his gelding’s debut on the good Great Meadow to the firm Colonial Downs.
8. Sir John MonashBargary nearly swept the Steeplechase Pick 3 and gets the mount for Leslie Young’s second time jumper also seeing firm Colonial.

RACE 2

The starter condition in this maiden claiming race is career-based (started for $25,000 claiming price or less) and not steeplechase only.

5. Love ForeverafterRan solid in an opening day race at Colonial Downs in her first jump race against fillies. Faces the boys today.
8. Little G TGoing to draw a line through the Great Meadow outing on the good going. He likes firm as when he won on the Colonial flat in 2023.
7. CarlounBrion’s Carloun has decent starts in the soft going but may have needed the Laurel start to find a rally here.

RACE 3

A steeplechase handicap where at some point each starter has outfinished at least one other starter in this field.

5. Auction KingdomMorris’ five-year-old won at Great Meadow last fall among a number of seconds, including a near-miss at Colonial at this level.
4. Bourbon DiversionKingsley’s veteran mare runs best on the firm Colonial going that includes a hurdle win last summer and a second this summer.
2. Recent RevelationsHendriks adds blinker to his veteran jumper who ran better than Bourbon at Foxfield but found foes tough in last start.

RACE 4

Only two career starts, both of them at Colonial, among these two-year-olds going five furlongs on the dirt.

5. Mi BagoWith two recent bullet works at two different tracks, Munoz’s late foaled colt is living up to his hot sired breeding.
2. Captain EddieLightner’s colt has two bullet works at the Oakridge training center and gives a leg up to McCarthy to deliver.
6. Fly CommanderI may lament not giving the start of Ochoa’s colt more merit especially shortening to five furlongs.

RACE 5

Longshot Leanne Hester has the morning line 9/5 favorite switching to the dirt. Another sharp Vekoma-sired bullet maker.

3. InfernoMcCarthy and McCutchen have a McSleeper in a first-time starting filly sired by Flameaway.
6. Suzies PrideNotable debut on the Colonial turf at five furlongs will give Hester’s filly added experience, huge at this level.
7. Go IshlaGoldencents filly trained by Rodriguez tallied a bullet work two sessions back, which is more meaningful than the one just after.

RACE 6

The first race on the turf not jumping is mid-card, with the third consecutive two-year-old race and a field of nine.

9. Fear the FactsLots of first for this high Tomlinson-rated gelding, including the first time on the turf, first out of MSW and the first saddling by Cooney.
6. PrinsipitoMunoz’s wins have all been on the dirt but could break through on the turf with Gavin aboard his high-rated Lookin At Lucky colt.
7. Arctic OutbreakMychel Sanchez gets the call on Lawrence’s Union Rags colt.

NICK’S NOTES

  • Picks continue below.
  • In the jockey standings Ben Curtis has generated a little separation after a third of the meet at Colonial Downs with nine wins, three wins ahead of a real logjam. Trevor McCarthy, Mychel Sanchez, Horacio Karamanos and Antonio Gallardo, all of whom have won riding titles at Colonial Downs before, are tied in second place with six. Victor Carrasco and Jevian Toledo each have five wins with Forest Boyce and Gavin Ashton with four. 
  • In the trainer standings, Brittany Russell and Michael Trombetta are tied with six wins each followed by Michael Stidham with five wins. Carlos Munoz has four wins, all on the dirt, then followed with Christophe Clement with three wins.
  • It wouldn’t be unrealistic for Neil Morris to sweep the trainer Steeplechase Pick 3 as the experienced horseman has two entries in each of steeplechase races on today’s card. If the morning line is accurate, all six are live; and Morris will send out the first and second choice in both the second and third races.
  • Nick’s Picks went four-for-nine last Saturday, generating the best ROI of the meet while Nick himself was four states away. That’s racing. Looking for better price can drop your win percentage which is down to 28.5% of the meet.

RACE 7

Yet another two-year-old race slated, this time a turf route with a field of nine going a mile led by two of Casse’s.

9. MeistersingerBy Tomlinson and jockey, I should take the other Casse, but like the work and breeding of Casse’s Paynter gelding.
6. Patrick’s PromiseClement starts one for Shel Evans by 2014 Belmont-winning sire Tonalist with Sanchez aboard.
2. The BrigadeAnother high Tomlinson rating for a Casse gelding going from synthetic to turf and from a sprint to a mile.

RACE 8

Deep field of nonwinning claimers since February 1, 2024 features three that won in January.

11. NautilusNautilus comes in from the same level on the Monmouth turf but may benefit returning to the winning distance for him, a mile.
4. Light FuryA brief layoff for McCarthy’s mount who raced at Del Mar, but gets a meaningful class drop here.
3. Artemus BridgeVeteran makes his 54th start but his first with Curtis looking to improve from opening day outing.

RACE 9

Nine-horse field of maiden claimers in a turf sprint has a solid choice with a filly with half her starts at Colonial.

5. White HeatBoniface starts White Heat with Karamanos aboard coming out of MSW with a second-place finish hungry for a win.
9. Midnight in PragueMaking her 2024 debut as a five-year-old is Neil Morris’ mare who has enough speed to contest and returns to turf.
3. Chica MusicA filly with enough class to match White Heat is Ochoa’s Tapiture filly that ran well at Colonial last summer.

RACE 10

Five of this field of eight are in for the claim in this starter/optional claiming where veterans want the lead.

5. El de LarryRuiz gets the call on a three-year-old with wins on surfaces listed as firm, good, and soft.
6. Bode’s MakerAfter a nice win at Laurel in April, a veteran Bodemeister gelding found Belmont at Aqueduct over his head.
4. Small FieldNearly landed a big price at Colonial two weeks ago with Fuentes aboard. Won’t be 22-1 today.

RACE 11

Renowned Virginia horsewoman Robin Richards is back after Green Beans won for her first win of the meet, this time with V Inspired.

1. Valley StarWith a little added gate speed, Danner’s three-year-old filly may break through. Especially like the race spacing.
10. Country EconomicsMunoz, still seeking his first turf win to go with his four on the dirt, nearly had one here at this level two weeks ago on soft going.
9. Queen ValentinaIf you like Beyers, you love this filly. If you handicap for class, you like this filly. Almost too much to like.

RACE 12

If you are looking for recent wins, they won’t be found in this field of 11, who haven’t won since at least February 1st.

2. Timely ProspectThe meet’s leading trainer took a little pause with Ross’s gelding after finishing second off a January win perhaps with eyes on the turf.
3. You Must ChillAfter his January win, You Must Chill has started six times largely with credible outcomes.
9. E. P. MiltonThere are a number of sizable longshots that can win this race, including Cooney’s “Milton”, Allen’s “Conquest” and Boucher’s Lowcountry.

Picture of the day

Tojo’s Mojo

Tojo’s Mojo is the 3-1 morning line favorite in Saturday’s $150,000 Hickory Tree Stakes for Virginia restricted two-year-olds. The Name Changer colt was second on debut before graduating last out July 14 at Laurel Park. He is trained by John Salzman, Jr. for Joanne Geruso and will be ridden by Jorge Ruiz. Photo by Jeff Snyder.

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