Spa selections 2024: Saratoga picks August 3
Cover photo by NYRA/Adam Coglianese.
In Spa Selections, Saratoga correspondent Joseph Aiello provides Saratoga picks for a handful of key races at Saratoga, including all of the exciting stakes action!
Follow along all meet with all the exciting action (and good betting opportunities)!
Check out our other handicapping here!
RACE 7: Grade I Saratoga Derby Invitational Stakes
1. #4 Diego Velazquez (2-1) – With some questions regarding the top choices in here, this Aiden O’Brien trainee takes his first shot in North America and has the class to win
2. #5 Deterministic (6-1) – Rosario and Clement haven’t been as dominant this meet on turf as in years past, but this second time turfer has the talent to make a late charge
3. #6 Carson’s Run (8-1) – May not have the ceiling of some others in here, but is a strong finisher who will appreciate the extra distance even if he doesn’t win
4. #8 White Palomino (8-1) – Cugino and Legend of Time are certainly capable, but this Chad Brown trainee is a threat to grab the lead and hang on in the money
RACE 8: Grade I Test Stakes
1. #1 Emery (5-2) – Has won all her sprint races so far, with enough speed shown in her last two tries to be a top win contender in this tough group
2. #6 Brightwork (6-1) – Hasn’t raced since November, but should improve getting back to a better distance and won twice here last year as a two year old
3. #4 Ways and Means (7-5) – Has done her best running at the Spa, dazzling here in June and could have the most upside of any runner in this field
4. #5 My Mane Squeeze (5-1) – Purely off of her race in the Eight Belles Stakes, this New York bred filly by Audible is good enough to win here with the right pace set up
RACE 9: Fasig-Tipton Lure Stakes
1. #2 Forever Souper (6-1) – Showed some speed last time out in a gate to wire win, and even if he likely won’t be on the lead, this gelding has done his best running lately
2. #9 More Than Looks (2-1) – Hasn’t run since the Breeders’ Cup Mile in November, but is still the top contender based on class and can win with a strong effort
3. #8 Smokin T (6-1) – Irish Aces has been better recently, but this McGaughey trainee won here last year and should be primed for a bounce back effort off the bench
4. #5 Big Everest (4-1) – Will likely be on the lead and can be dangerous if he controls a slower pace, but the presence of Swiftsure may provide some pressure
RACE 10: Grade II Troy Stakes
1. #6 Cogburn (4-5) – Likely won’t have a turf course which is playing as fast as it did in June when he set a track record at the distance, but still wins with a top effort
2. #8 Grooms all Bizness (8-1) – A winner of two straight, this gelding is in top form as he steps up in class here at a price and should be in a good mid pack position
3. #10 Witty (12-1) – This Pennsylvania bred seems to be in good form recently, finishing in the top two in his last four tries and is strong at the distance
4. #1 Mischief Magic (6-1) – Xy Speed hasn’t fared well in stakes company and has no graded tries, so take this closer to run into third or fourth at a price
RACE 11: Grade I Whitney Stakes
1. #9 Bright Future (5-1) – Brutally difficult field here where a number could run well enough to win, but this horse by Curlin should sit mid pack off of a likely hot pace
2. #3 National Treasure (9-5) – May end up being a tad better than the rest if he runs on his terms, but Arthur’s Ride could push him out quick and he is better going shorter
3. #10 Skippylongstocking (8-1) – With this post, early position is key for this horse with speed to his immediate outside but has some of the best races at this distance
4. #7 Crupi (15-1) – Post Time then First Mission get the edge in the mud, but this colt is better value than First Mission and may get the set up to close into a quick pace late
RACE 12: Alw 110000n1x
1. #7 St. Benedicts Prep (4-1) – Should be near the lead and has four solid efforts at this distance including one two back that wins here
2. #2 Striker Has Dial (5-2) – May have the most upside here coming out of the Wilton Stakes and cuts back to a more manageable distance
3. #4 Zadorsky (8-1) – Ran her best race last time and could be a threat with a repeat of that effort especially if the early pace falls apart
4. #6 Miss Enchanted (6-1) – Finally broke her maiden last time out and gets her ideal distance here after showing improvement but needs a dry track
RACE 13: OC 62500n2x
1. #10 Reckoning Force (9-2) – Tougher post but still will have every chance to win amongst this group if Flavian Prat can keep him close enough to the lead
2. #2 California Frolic (8-1) – Comes out of a grade III where he only lost by a length and a quarter and seems to be closing well even if he isn’t winning
3. #1 Freedom Trail (7-2) – Not quite good enough in graded company, but improves with the class drop and compares well with this field off the layoff
4. #3 Capture the Flag (12-1) – Magical Ways has some upside on turf if the pace heats up, but play the connections here for this improving colt by Quality Road
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