Nick's Picks: Colonial Downs picks August 11, 2024 * The Racing Biz

Nick’s Picks: Colonial Downs picks August 11, 2024

Nick Hahn
August 11, 2024

He’s probably the only public handicapper who’s ‘capped every race at Colonial Downs since Day One, and he’s back for more in 2024: Nick’s Picks returns with picks and analysis for every day of the Colonial meet.

DATE/POST TIME: August 11/1:00
RACES: 12
CARRYOVERS: Pick 6, $733

RACE 1

Ten maidens start the card going a mile on the turf with no outstander, a nice betting race to open the card.

1. Incisive Kitten	Kitten’s Joy filly ran well against the boys at a high level in first Colonial start. Better spot here.
10. Streetcorner	Ross’s Streetcorner caught the slop in first Colonial encounter and likley will have the lead most of the way in first turf start.
8. Biscuit	Morgan’s Ford homebred was entered in a rain-impacted race last weekend but has a tougher challenge here.

RACE 2

On the dirt, plenty of contenders in a sprint including Freeze the Fire looking for a 4th straight win and recent claim for Allen.

8. Classier	In his first start under Allen silks, a shaky break hindered. Will be happy that Rominski isn’t here.
4. Bouncer	Won at seven furlongs on the Colonial dirt last summer but is returning to dirt for the first time since March for Casse.
3. Freeze the Fire	Certainly capable of pulling off the four-peat but will find plenty of early speed to contend with. A great claim for Magana.

RACE 3

In a turf sprint, Beyers players have one to gravitate towards, but if not on the lead, others have opportunities.

2. Notice Me Too	Expecting that by the time this race is run, the turf could be firm which is what Stidham may be looking for, a race without squish.
4. Gin Gin’s Approval	Trombetta’s filly ran huge in her first turf start and is the best threat to be on the lead outside Notice Me Too.
8. Splash of Jack	Maybe slightly chased a fast pace in first Colonial start so as in first career start, look for Karamanos to rate a little better.

RACE 4

One of two in-meet winners have a good chance to repeat, but never easy in a deep field of a turf route race for older horses.

2. Bodecream	De Paz’s veteran runs well at this distance on turf yet seems to have more issues when he gets away from a firm distance race.
9. Massif	As a three-year old, Russell’s gelding won against older horses in a deep Colonial field before, even this season, but difficult to do twice.
6. Small Field	Huffman’s gelding has run well so far and knows how to win at Colonial Downs, but like Massif, it’s tough to strike twice.

RACE 5 – Petramalo Mile S.

In the $100,000 Petramalo Mile, (or “the Pet Mile”), runners with some kind of Triple Crown aspirations earlier this year gather.

5. Hades	Orseno’s gelding found it difficult to follow up on the Holy Bull win but prefers a mile on the dirt without Domestic Product involved.
2. Real Macho	After facing Fierceness and Dornach over a mile, Real Macho is back to one turn, including a seven-furlong Carry Back win.
7. Awesome Ruta	Another recent winner that will challenge is Ward’s colt, pleased not to see Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom at two turns.

RACE 6 – Penny Chenery S.

In the seven-furlong $100,000 Penny Chenery, for three-year-old fillies on dirt, two come into the field with back-to-back wins.

6. Girvin’s Princess	Like the return of Gallardo, who has the most recent win for KO’s filly and can manage Colonial’s long sweeping turn.
8. Pure Lure	No talent lost in having McCarthy take over for Rodriguez, who delivered all her wins, yet her first start outside Parx.
2. Dazzling Move	Trombetta filly has been inconsistent but so have been the surfaces underneath her and jockey above her, yet very capable of winning.

NICK’S NOTES

Picks continue below.
Nick’s Picks is a sizzling 7-of-9 in stakes races at Colonial Downs this summer, including finding the gem Winfinity ($25.80) as the longest shot on the board in the Keswick Stakes last Saturday. The $25.80 payout helped to refill the cash gauge. Today there are seven stakes on the Colonial Downs card, and chalk is not in the forecast.
The jockey standings for the riding title at Colonial Downs has lived up to expectations as newcomer Ben Curtis leads all with nine wins, followed by Antonio Gallardo, Trevor McCarthy, and Horacio Karamanos, all prior riding title winners at Colonial and all with eight wins this season.
The trainer standings are also competitive. Michael Trombetta and Brittany Russell each has with six wins, and Michael Stidham ant Carlos Munoz have five apiece.
The only Virginia Derby winner to capture the Arlington Million when it was run in the northwest Chicago suburbs or east of Richmond was Gio Ponti, winning the Million as a four-year-old a year after his Virginia Derby win in 2008. Paddy O’Prado won the Secretariat Stakes in 2010 after winning both the Colonial Turf Cup and the Virgnia Derby at Colonial Downs but only raced once as an older horse. Kitten’s Joy, the 2004 Virginia Derby winner, also won the Secretariat Stakes as a three-year-old but ran second in the following year’s Million
When Colonial Downs last ran a live race August 3: 1) Democratic Presidential candidate Kamala Harris had not yet announced her running mate, 2) Tropical Depression Debby was starting to generate concern in the Caribbean, 3) The Orioles had the lead in the AL East, fell into a tie with the Yankees, gave the Yankees the lead, got back into a tie and retook the division lead, 4) The US men’s basketball team was two days away from facing Brazil in the quarter finals in the Olympics 5) Virginia was under a tax-free holiday for qualifying back to school items and emergency preparations items.

RACE 7 – Andy Guest S.

The $150,000 Andy Guest has a Colonial legend in Chambeau, who the Gilpin/Petty at first asking at five, then several others.

7. Beauty of the Sea	Orseno’s filly consistently delivers this level of stakes win, especially when the turf is firm; standing ready and rested.
6. Shoshanah	Draw a line through Shoshanah’s starts on the dirt and this mare comes across in a more competitive light, and returns Rojas.
5. Medalla Match	Anticipating a jockey change on Medalla Match, who ventured into graded-stakes company after earning black type.

RACE 8 – Van Clief S.

I can only draw a line through two of these twelve Van Clief sprinters on the turf for my winner, everything else is hyper-analysis.

1. Dream Shake	Hoping Curtis can overcome the rail in the first 2024 start for Stidham, as this one has been competitive in graded stakes company.
7. Witty	Merryman had several options but chose Colonial to run her versatile gray, who is first or second nearly every time.
4. Determined Kingdom	Will know early in this race how much of a chance Schoenthal’s sprinter has who is much better than a restricted stakes winner.

RACE 9 – Grade 2 Secretariat S.

The longest shot on the board won the Secretariat last year, but I wouldn’t expect that to happen again, too many standouts.

9. Trikari	The American Turf winner came back to win the Belmont Derby. Motion could have started him a number of places, chose here.
1. Brilliant Berti	The other American winner at Churchill — he won the American Derby, which is not the American Turf — continues to improve for DeVaux and is already proven at a mile.
2. Rock’n a Halo	Amoss’ gelding shortens back to a mile after seeing the tough field of the Audobon and running even with it.

RACE 10 – Grade 2 Beverly D. S.

Fev Rover is back at Colonial to defend her Beverly D from last year, but Nadette won the Beverly D. Preview earlier in the meet.

2. Nadette	Nadette was convincing in the Beverly D Preview, coming in from the West Coast to win. Drysdale loved the spot.
6. Moira	Nearly won the Diana at Saratoga when Nadette won here. Though Fev Rover bettered her twice last year, like Moira in second ’24 start.
4. Fev Rover	Casse’s mare certainly didn’t rest on her Beverly D laurels after winning last year, but not quite to the solid form she had then.

RACE 11 – Grade 1 Arlington Million

Integration is undefeated at Colonial Downs and “faces the nations” in an attempt to complete the Secretariat-Million double.

1. Integration	In a six-horse field there will be enough of a target for Shug’s colt to rally into with Carmouche back aboard.
4. Nations Pride	Appleby’s horse has a triple-digit Beyer in America every year since 2022 and has won in five different countries and three continents.
6. Talk of the Nation	Pletcher’s Quality Road colt will find the lead but will have hot breath behind him somewhere between the eighth and sixteenth pole.

RACE 12

The finale, a turf sprint, is as challenging a race to handicap as any all meet long thanks to a multiple condition.

2. Doctor Jeff	Consistent Beyers producer up for claim here to see this race, who when happy can distinguish himself.
6. Charmed	One thing about Neusch, he won’t go unless he has a great chance to win, like he does here with one claimed at Colonial last summer.
5. King Covee	Sharp turn up for Schoenthal’s gelding in the Punch Line where he was moving on stablemate Determined Kingdom late.