Nick’s Picks: Colonial Downs picks August 12, 2024

  • userNick Hahn
  • dateAugust 12, 2024

He’s probably the only public handicapper who’s ‘capped every race at Colonial Downs since Day One, and he’s back for more in 2024: Nick’s Picks returns with picks and analysis for every day of the Colonial meet.

  • DATE/POST TIME: August 12/11:45 (steeplechase races), with the first flat race at 1:30
  • RACES: 12
  • CARRYOVERS: None

RACE 1

STEEPLECHASE – Maidens, none showing closing speed, led by two Fisher flyers who will be side by side when the flag is dropped.

1. PalioFinished third to two other horses that have wins in the meet, perhaps the one Watters wanted to ride.
5. Kenilworth KingYoung’s Kitten’s Joy five-year-old will have a tough time leaving this course and ran well until late in last start.
6. Dark PoolBrion’s filly has shown closing speed on the flat, but not after going over a lap and a half of jumps first.

RACE 2

STEEPLECHASE – Exuma looks to become the first two-time winner of the meet over jumps, but sees tough adversaries.

1. Jimmy DanBefore his start at Colonial as a competitive favorite, Riverdee’s jumper won two in a row before becoming the hunted.
2. ExumaBeecher’s Galileo jumper spotted the leader twenty lengths to start and improved his position every step of the way since.
3. Two Past EightTwo wins in Europe over jumps but a lot of long flat racing has happened since those triumphs. First US start today.

RACE 3

The $100,000 Randolph Rouse Memorial Steeplechase features Exculpate looking for his second win of the meet.

1. Haint BlueNot trying to make the Steeplechase rail (dogs) matter, but Haint Blue has a win over Exculpate in Carolina.
3. My Forever AnnieThe two career starts for Young’s mare were solid and Bargary gets the reigns this stalking challenger.
7. ExculpateNever seems to jump poor at any level or condition and is expected to lead through most of the race.

RACE 4

On the dirt, seven two-year-old maidens have largely poor starts or no starts on their resumes for this turf sprint.

4. Improbable MeHe’s a nice guy, but Munoz is the demon of the dirt at Colonial Downs, giving Gavin a chance in his gelding’s first start.
7. SackettAfter a little layoff, McCutchen drops one from Kentucky MSW and saddles McCarthy looking for a breakthrough win.
2. Grey ShadowThe morning line favorite will like still be the post time time choice with Karamanos and dropping from MSW.

RACE 5

On the dirt here, the condition eludes that for those here that have won several races, they didn’t win at high levels.

4. RandazzoYoung lightly raced Stidham gelding has a win on the dirt last year but promising works at Delaware are impressive.
2. Jolly by GollyNear miss at Colonial three weeks ago on the dirt might have been a win with the extra furlong he’s getting today.
5. Northern ChillConnor is having a solid meet and might have the lead at some point but seven furlongs may be a challenge.

RACE 6

Still on the dirt, a real vindication race for past solid performers like Repo Rocks and Whelen Springs seeking another win.

6. MufasaCould be a little bit of a reach but going with the South America to Colonial angle which has worked in the past ala Didia.
3. Whelen SpringsIf memory serves, Schultz got her first stakes win at Colonial and restarts a New Jersey dazzler from 2023.
5. Repo RocksNew trainer, new surface, new distance for frequent stakes winner in New York off a bullet work in Delaware.

NICK’S NOTES

  • Picks continue below.
  • There was once a time when winning a major three-year-old turf race at Colonial Downs (a la the Virginia Derby) eluded trainer Graham Motion, one of the major stakes stakes that personally meant a lot to him. Now he has them falling out of his pocket. With Trikari, Motion captured his first Secretariat Stakes to go along with his three Virginia Derby wins. With John Velazquez aboard, Trikari took the lead as they turned for home and went on to win by a couple over Brilliant Berti, whose charge came a little later.  Motion is now considering a race versus older horses at a mile on turf, possibly at Keeneland, as a possible Breeders’ Cup prep for the American Turf, Belmont Derby and now Secretariat Stakes winner.
  • In perhaps the best duel of the late evening, Moira won the Beverly D with jockey Jose Ortiz aboard for the first time for trainer Kevin Attard, excelling in a push to the wire over Fev Rover, who set the early pace before getting challenged by Libban.  After the race, Attard mentioned that the decision to send Moira to Colonial Downs over a race at Woodbine came down to the last minute.  The result of the race came down to the last fractions of a second.
  • Jockey William Buick had to catch a flight shortly after the running of the Arlington Million but didn’t ride Nations Pride as if that was the case. Buick, who managed to sign a few autographs and give a few comments on his brisk walk to the jockeys’ room after the race, said he knew he had the best horse in the race based on his breeze on the Oklahoma training track at Saratoga on Friday and, of course, on his impressive resume. Sugoi with Julien Leparoux aboard took an outstanding lead headed into the turn for home, but then Nations Pride charged past Sugoi, and later Talk of the Nation to win by nearly two lengths as Colonial acer Integration tried to cut into his margin.
  • Riding in Europe, Buick sees a lot of turf racing and praised  Colonial’s Secretariat Turf Course as world class and very fair.
  • Nick’s Picks enjoyed another profitable day going 4 of 12 on top winners on the day including Trikari, Dream Shake in the $150,000 Van Clief, Beauty of the Sea in the $150,000 Andy Guest and Bodecream earlier in the card.  With racing concluding after sunset and an 11:45 first race post for steeplechase racing at Colonial Downs on Monday, there will be more on the full, fabulous, Fesitval of Racing to come in the six editions of Nick’s Picks to be posted this week

RACE 7

First race on the turf today is a sprint for claimers familiar with Colonial Downs but not its winner’s circle.

5. LitaKlesaris due for Colonial wins brings back a second-place finisher at the same level versus crafty class droppers.
11. LustyCertain to be part of the early pace for Russell’s class dropper and may love the distance shortening to one turn.
6. Momentous MissExpect a better run than first ’24 Colonial start from a mare that has several hard luck second place finishes at Colonial.

RACE 8

Starter allowance turf sprint features each one with an improving or equaling Beyer in their last start.

8. Boat’s a RockinWith a win during the Belmont at Saratoga meet, this veteran will need to survive the speed on the inside. Has enough class to do so.
2. LucciLucci turned the tables on Boss Is a Pal recently and though fifth in first Colonial start was nearing within 2 lengths at the wire.
1. BorrachoA little disrespected in the morning line is Ness’ even older veteran looking for his fifth straight win at four different course but now turf.

RACE 9

A number of Colonial winning veterans, many who broke their maidens here, looking for a wonderful homecoming in a turf sprint.

3. Alla BreveLooking to join the Colonial winners list is Matz’s filly with Karamanos aboard looking for her third straight win.
6. Sol HopeOn good turf, Lightner’s mare nearly scored again at Colonial where she had previous was undefeated in four turf starts.
9. Cavalier CupidLooking to rekindle her filly form is the five-year-old mare of Nagle who has been training at Braeburn in Crozet.

RACE 10

In this full field of maiden turf sprinters it’s difficult to excuse those with many starts when promising youngsters has shown much early.

6. GranuaileWith consistent starts at Laurel for Madison Meyers, Curtis picks up the mount in her filly’s first Colonial start.
5. Thy Name Is WomanA little class drop makes Trombetta’s filly even more competitive with Karamanos returning after a Colonial near miss.
4. Bonnie BlueWell-bred filly for Cooney is out of a Hansel dam making her first start for Lazy LAne with a solid Tomlinson here.

RACE 11

Another deep field of turf sprinting maidens plenty with closing kicks to chase the sole speed.

12. YahmoStidham wanted a firm track for this Catholic Boy three-year-old looking to close, all of his career starts at Colonial.
7. Oconee LifeShortening from routes, recent form suggests that this Cairo Prince gelding is a real threat to wire.
1. Baby OscarI should have more respect for Saville who has three wins in four starts in the meet at Colonial, here with a first timer.

RACE 12

The third consecutive maiden turf sprint slated with twelve starters to conclude the card.

2. Donate LifeThe back story on this filly is good enough to cheer for enough, but Tomlinson, class drop and recent form suggest a wire threat.
11. La BefanaAs a four-year-old facing a field comprised of most still at three, Nagle’s filly has recent results that are promising.
8. Irish AngelMaybe one extra class drop plus shortening to a sprint is all that is needed for Irish Angel to hit the board.

Picture of the day

Trikari

Sunday’s most impressive performance may have been that of Trikari, who won the G2 Secretariat Stakes by a couple over the talented Brilliant Bertie under a patient John Velazquez ride. The Graham Motion-trained sophomore now has wins in Grade 1, Grade 2, and Grade 3 company and, having run out of grades, may try older horses next. Photo by Coady Photography.

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