Nick's Picks: Colonial Downs picks August 15, 2024 * The Racing Biz

Nick’s Picks: Colonial Downs picks August 15, 2024

Nick Hahn
August 15, 2024

He’s probably the only public handicapper who’s ‘capped every race at Colonial Downs since Day One, and he’s back for more in 2024: Nick’s Picks returns with picks and analysis for every day of the Colonial meet.

DATE/POST TIME: July 11/11:45 (steeplechase races), with the first flat race at 1:30
RACES: 12
CARRYOVERS: Pick 6, $7,936

RACE 1

For some time, several maidens here have been looking for a fast Colonial surface on dirt.

7. River Ridge	Favorite on opening Saturday caught a muddy track after some promising starts on fast surfaces.
1. Street Earnings	Casse’s gray shortens to six furlongs after being sharp for a long time going slightly farther. Gallado returns.
8. Mr Clause	Munoz may see the best of out of his three-year-old after seeing the turf.

RACE 2

Two-year-old turf sprint with either first-timers or those with earlier Colonial starts this meet. Both cross-entries pass on Tuesday.

2. Seger Songs	Even now, after being previously entered, don’t Turn the Page Against the Wind Brion’s filly can strut.
5. Love Music	Stidham’s stable seems to be picking up steam recently, especially with Curtis riding. Sharp works at different tracks.
8. Laws of a Nation	Desourmeaux’s filly finds the turf after a credible first start with a nice Tomlinson rating backed by Constitution lineage.

RACE 3

On the dirt allowance optional claimers go a mile where well-bred lightly raced fillies may be more attractive.

4. Overwish	Repole’s filly won at seven-furlongs by over six lengths at Laurel and at one turn will be thinking its the same distance at Colonial.
2. Divinely Bolt	Hasn’t run poorly at all after a meaningful win at Churchill Downs in June. McCarthy will find a better trip this time.
5. Runaway Diva	Runhappy-sired three-year-old comes back to the dirt where she won in her first start and seems to like in the mornings.

RACE 4

The few two-year-olds in this ten-horse field with a start at Colonial will benefit from the race experience on the turf.

3. Sea Lion	Look for Tyler Conner to provide a trip better on the Yoshida-sired filly for Kelsey Danner.
6. Let Thesunshine In	In a very similar race on the very same day at Colonial, Trombetta’s filly nearly prevail and he returns Karamanos.
4. Disco Rules	There was a sharp work at Churchill in early July that likely led Riley to consider an in-state start for Diane Manning’s Constitution filly.

RACE 5

Twelve claimers, non-winners of two, comprise a field of largely younger horses and largely all with a start at Colonial this summer.

1. Ida Boss	One of two Bailes trainees for Kuhn/Smith that disappointed off their maiden win, but find better outings today.
9. Tres Francais	Delacour’s filly also was disappointing off a maiden win but will be a real threat at a mile in lieu of a mile and sixteenth.
11. Katakana	From Charles Town on the dirt to yielding turf at Colonial, Figgins’ filly found the winner’s circle in her last start.

RACE 6

Two Trombetta fillies center a ten-horse field of Virginia restricted claimers going a mile on the the firm going.

8. Lady Ensign	Taking a step farther from a steady diet of five and a half furlongs is Country Life’s “Lady” but now with a class edge.
10. Beautiful Gorgeous	Rested, ready and blinkers on for Orhrstorm’s mare with a win at Colonial Downs last summer.
6. That Girl Artemus	Schoenthal is coming off a good weekend with two wins and tries something different with his Exaggerator filly.

NICK’S NOTES

Picks continue below.
Shhhhhhh! Nick’s Picks has had four net positive and really, net well-positive days in the row. For the meet the win percentage on top selections is hair below 30% but the ROI is above par. The accolades include going a 10-of-17 on stakes races. Don’t talk to the pitcher.
With Trikari winning the Secretariat Stakes during Colonial’s Festival of Racing, trainers Gary Williams, Mary Eppler, Ferris Allen and now Graham Motion have one thing in common: a win during this meet at Colonial Downs and a win on Colonial’s grand opening day on September 1, 1997. Trainer Tim Keefe who, as many know, won the first race at Colonial Downs with MacGyver, starts his first of this meet today in the eighth with Tammy’s Magic. Trainer James Lawrence who also won on Colonial’s grand opening day and has three chances this weekend to find the winner’s circle. Group photo anyone?
Trainer Larry Rivelli, who won the training title at Colonial Downs in 2022 after moving his stable from Arlington Park, has entered Sendero in the fifth race on Saturday, his first starter of the meet. In 2022, Rivelli won with his first starter ever at Colonial Downs. The two-year-old that delivered the win was none other than Two Phil’s, the second-place finisher in the 2023 Kentucky Derby.

RACE 7

Twelve maidens with heavy jump influences in this field watch for Saville’s veteran off the AE list. Rum Tum Tugger ran on Wednesday.

11. Ganado	After spending last spring in the Brown barn with two sharp outings, elder Ganado makes his 2024 debut after a solid Colonial work.
12. British Sea	Brion’s English Channel ran turf routes well in recent deep fields except when a bit outclassed.
8. Bourbon Strait	Look for a little improvement from Kingsley’s English Channel going a extra sixteenth as Ashton figures out this gelding.

RACE 8

Ten Virginia restricted two-year-olds sprint on the turf either making their first start or starting previous at Colonial.

2. Beyond Question	That opening day race won by Bonne Fille should prove to be a good race and Trombetta’s filly had the lead in it.
6. Greek Sing	Maybe reaching for a generation bridge too far with Hard Spun’s lineage but expect a near wire effort on the turf with Cibelli’s filly.
7. Lost River	Sharp turnup for Lost River on opening day switching to turf and should probably consider higher than third with Special K aboard.

RACE 9

There are several positive steps up among the last starts of veteran claimers with two wins each in a field of nine.

7. Enahm	Wheeler’s Enahm gets reunited with Ashton, his winning jockey from the spring after a layoff.
8. My Great Illusion	Coming off a layoff is Crichton’s Get Stormy-bred with two wins in his back pocket from Tampa this spring.
5. Ballyhoo Prince	A frequent check casher, Nuesch’s veteran won in his last start at Laurel and his last start at Colonial, nearly two years apart.

RACE 10

Twelve maiden claimers go a mile on the turf in the finale, nearly everyone seen at Colonial Downs at least once during the meet.

3. She’s Arodeoqueen	A solid performance in her turf debut for Tomlinson’s filly who stayed on despite the yielding condition in her Colonial debut.
10. Digital Trade	Back class may show through despite the layoff for an elder maiden with a very underrated jockey aboard.
2. Change Order	A little class drop off her first Colonial start may be all that is needed for this Vino Rosso filly to hit the board.