Nick's Picks: Colonial Downs picks August 16, 2024 * The Racing Biz

Nick’s Picks: Colonial Downs picks August 16, 2024

Nick Hahn
August 16, 2024

He’s probably the only public handicapper who’s ‘capped every race at Colonial Downs since Day One, and he’s back for more in 2024: Nick’s Picks returns with picks and analysis for every day of the Colonial meet.

DATE/POST TIME: August 16, 2024/4:40
RACES: 9
CARRYOVERS: Pick 6, $9,612

RACE 1

Starting out on the dirt are seven two-year-olds, none of which have gone a mile in their early careers yet.

5. Thrilla	Disappointed many as the favorite in his first start but has talent as he showed at Keeneland before the Colonial meet.
4. Ace On the Turn	Trainer Jordan Blair is having a good meet and sends Ashton out aboard a first time starter with nice grandparents.
6. Time for Restraint	Danner switches surfaces, distances, venues but not Gallardo, the jockey looking for better results from Hard Spun lineage.

RACE 2

The daily double is on the dirt today with seven optional claimers, three sprinting off a win and two off of Colonial wins.

1. Libitina	A pretty obvious choice coming off a six-length win on opening day, but we all know racing isn’t that easy.
3. Dancing Magic	The stake at Prairie Meadows might have been a leap but the well-bred filly of Good Magic finds a friendlier footing today.
5. Kip the Distance	Draw a line through the turf stakes at Monmonth and one of Angel’s two entries looks much better.

RACE 3

On the turf for the first time are eight Virginia-restricted fillies and mares sprinting, two with wins in the meet.

6. Carolina Hideaway	One of two entered for Cooney showed poise to win in a nine-horse field and returns Trevor McCarthy to ride.
2. Nineteenamendment	One of two entered for Trombetta, broke his maiden on the dirt but recently has taken a liking to the turf.
4. Binnie	Wouldn’t expect Morgan’s Ford to put pressure on Russell to race. That is, off the layoff, Binnie is ready.

RACE 4

Twelve claimers going a mile on the turf have as varied a background as you could imagine for a race at this level.

8. Woohoo Jackie Blue	Jack Milton ran a decent Virginia Derby some time back. Schultz’s mare has seen a number of different surfaces and distances.
10. Our Strong Vows	Godsey’s Colonial veteran ran a decent mile at Parx in June. Not sure why she couldn’t run another one here.
6. Katies a Lady	Softer going is a detriment to Double D’s mare, but when on the firm going capable of bettering anyone here.

RACE 5

A throwback to Colonial of yore is a fourteen-horse turf route of maidens, allowed to go when they are at least three years old.

5. Acqualina	The opening day maiden race proves key here, along with the many great sires including Good Magic, one of my favorites.
8. Aspen Dawn	Casse’s filly will be looking for better trip today under Gallardo, where last time he covered a lot of ground.
4. Tales to Tell	Equal to many here but went off as the favorite on opening day so may not give a good price today either.

RACE 6

Virginia restricted turf routers are in a field where three won in their last start yet the July 26th race proves key.

9. Covert Kat	Trombetta’s five-year-old had two near misses in turf routes this year after winning a sprint at Colonial last summer.
8. T Rex	With Massif moving up a condition winning the July 26th race, maybe the others simply move up a placing.
2. Cap’n Dusty	Nagle’s winner at Laurel is one of two here sired by Point of Entry and shouldn’t run out of the money today.

NICK’S NOTES

Picks continue below.
Jockey Tyler Conner won twice on Thursday, the only rider to double. Both his wins came with maidens, among them two-year-old Sea Lion for trainer Kelsey Danner. Conner now has eight wins at the meet, putting him in a tie for sixth at the meet with Victor Carrasco. Ben Curtis leads the colony with 14 wins.
On Saturday’s card, former jockey and now trainer Stevica Djuric will start his first horse ever at Colonial Downs and first horse anywhere in over two years. Locomotive is 15-1 on the morning line and will have Jevian Toledo in the irons. Djuric’s only previous starter was Bomboloni at Laurel Park in 2022, who finished first (see theracingbiz.com for that story).
With only $2,630 in new money, the Pick 6 ended up carrying over ($9,612 into today) and paying consolations to people who got four of six. A pair of $32 horses — Wilma Flintshire for trainer Robbie Bailes and jockey Denis Araujo and Holy Joanie (Roland Clement, III/Ubardo Casique) — were the keys to the sequence. In the Wilma Flintshire race, the first four finishers were 15-1, 38-1, 20-1, and 72-1. The dime super paid over $4,968.
In the trainer standings, Michael Stidham has moved to the top of the list with nine wins in the meet followed by Michael Trombetta with eight and Brittany Russell with seven. Mark Casse, stabling a larger contingent at Colonial Downs, this summer has six wins.
For the fifth consecutive day, Nick’s Picks was in the black, but just barely, having to sweat out a photo between Ganado with Tyler Conner aboard and British Sea with Victor Carrasco riding in the seventh race. The short comments in the chart for the top pair were “won bob” and “lost bob.” Simple but very accurate words to describe the finish of the maiden claiming, mile and an eighth turf race where nostrils may have mattered. Nevertheless, Ganado pushed Nick’s Picks out of the red and into the black.

RACE 7

Two-year-olds going mile on the turf have some race experience, the best enjoyed by Thomas’ Saratoga starter.

6. As Catch Can	As maidens go, Augustin’s filly could be a free square in multi-race wagers after Jose Ortiz nearly showed last month.
1. Rush Week	Young Into Mischief-sired filly gets saddled by Stidham for Godolphin enjoying a beautiful friendship with Curtis.
8. Taco Cat Backwards	Look for an improving finish from Cass’e Kitten’s Joy filly for D.J. Stable who brought you Webslinger.

RACE 8

The race to key off, a maiden claimer at Colonial where three ran a turf sprint, was relatively recent. Otherwise new angles abound.

10. Monster Summer	Sharp uptick in that key race for Reynolds with Karamanos moving in late. Now her filly has seen it before.
2. Jurassic Chick	With a sharper start, Angel’s filly might find Colonial’s turf “closable” like a surprising synthetic move in her last start.
7. Classy Lil Betty	Off the layoff from Tamba is Roundtree’s filly, who if she has anything, McCarthy will find it.

RACE 9

Twelve maiden claimers line up nearly all now with at least one rehearsal at Colonial this summer.

11. Holy Alimony	Trevor nearly pulled off a front running score in his first ride aboard this Get Stormy sired three-year-old. Has a small class edge today.
2. Stayinyourlane	Breakthrough win for Allen yesterday, Ron Allen, Jr., that is, shortening up from an earlier near miss at a mile and a sixteenth.
12. Cousin Giorgos	Cooney’s gelding, who covered a yielding condition in his first Colonial start, also sees a small class edge today.