Laurel Park picks and ponderings: August 17, 2024
In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…
Post time: 12:25 p.m.
Carryovers:
Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $1,630
Jackpot Super High 5 — $1,027
Late Pick 5 — $0
Check out our other handicapping here!
RACE 1: CLAIMING $20,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)
9-1-6-7
#9 Tall Order (5-2) races for the first time since June 21. He made his second start of the season las tout against Maryland-restricted company, and flattened out flat after making what looked like a promising move. He won third off the bench at about this time last year, and will try to do the same thing today. #1 Katie’s Notion (6-1) made good ground from well off the pace last out, beaten less than two lengths. He has some of the best late pace figures in the field, and looks well-suited for today’s distance. #6 Cactus (4-1) tries grass for the first time for the Jamie Ness barn, and finds a soft field in which to make his debut on this surface. He should be sent for speed.
RACE 2: CLAIMING $12,500 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS
5-2-1-3
#5 Blue Trillion (9-5) drops to this level for the first time, and looks for a rebound off a flat effort as the favorite against slightly better non-winners of two rivals last out. She turned in a decent workout since that last race, giving her some hope for improvement. #2 Cora’s Choice (5-2) is a hard-to-swallow 1-for-21, but she faces a fairly soft field for her first start since early May, and has good tactical speed, which could serve her well in a pace-filled contest. #1 Frosty Maya (7-2) is the lightest-raced horse in the field, having raced only four times. She lasted through pace pressure to break her maiden on debut, but wilted after an early duel last out. We’ll see if she can control the pace from the rail.
RACE 3: MAIDEN CLAIMING $45,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/8 MILES (GRASS)
1-7-6-2
#1 She Is Invincible (3-1) ran a strong brisnet figure of 78 on debut last fall at Churchill Downs, but faded after pressing the pace first off a 10-month layoff at Colonial Downs last out. She was clearly a bit short that day, but has worked well since then, and should run a much-improved race second off the bench for Brittany Russell. #7 Dead Sexy (7-2) flew late and got up for second in a three-horse blanket finish last out, running in the 70s for the fourth consecutive race in the process. She’s the only one of her five siblings to not win on grass, but that could change this afternoon. #6 Baywatch Blonde (4-1) found herself stuck behind a very slow early pace on debut at Delaware Park, and stood no chance from there. She should run a much-improved race with an honest pace to close into.
RACE 4: CLAIMING $20,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 7 FURLONGS
3-6-2-1
#3 Tubtimsiam (8-5) goes first off the Kieron Magee claim, and is the only one in the race to run in the 80s in each of his last four starts. He ran well against conditioned claimers earlier this year, and now gets some class relief after facing starter optional claiming types in his last few. The only question is the distance -he’s cutting back to seven furlongs after a string of 1 1/16-mile tries. #6 Energy Efficient (5-2) has faded after racing wide all the way in his last few starts, but now finds himself in a spot where, along with Tubtimsiam, he has a big figure edge over his rivals. He’s also cutting back from 1 1/16 miles, but has at least won at this distance in the past. #2 Mister Agent (4-1) has one of the higher ceilings in the field, but got caught up in a pace duel last out and tired. If Jaime Rodriguez is gun-shy with Dunphy from the onside, after that rival got caught up in a duel of his own last out, that’ll allow Mister Agent to get t the lead and the rail, a very advantageous spot.
RACE 5: CLAIMING $30,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)
6-7-5-8
#6 Euphima (3-1) won the battle last out at Colonial, wearing down early leader Baby Blocks, but couldn’t hold off Atmidnight and settled for second. She ran some big figures on the lead at Gulfstream Park, and should be dangerous in her second local appearance. #7 Princess Lucia (30-1) showed a little more early speed at second asking, and got up to win in a blanket finish. She’s the lightest-raced horse in the field, and one of two in here who hasn’t lost against winners. If she improves a few points, which she’s certainly eligible to do, she could surprise at a big number. #5 Mollie Tapper (12-1) was outclassed in Virginia-bred stakes company at Colonial last out, but ran in the low-70s against these types in her first two starts of the season. She’s bound to take a step forward in her return to this level.
RACE 6: CLAIMING $12,500 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS
7-4-2-5
#7 Remember Me (5-2) finished second after setting the pace in two tries at this level. She ran a 78 and an 80 in those races, marks that the rest of the field haven’t touched in a while. She should set the pace and hold on. #4 Faith and Liberty (2-1) sat a great trip off a fast pace and beat a non-winners of two field going away last out. She’s shown in-and-out form in her four-race career, but she’ll get a great trip here and will take advantage if Remember Me falters. #2 Baby Sox (7-2) races for the first-time since mid-April, when she was a flat third behind Remember Me. She showed consistently improved form over the winter, but she might need a race or two to round back into her best self.
RACE 7: MAIDEN CLAIMING $20,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)
13-3-2-5
#13 Zingales King (5-2) improved to a 72 second off a 4 1/2-month layoff last out, prompting the pace while wide and getting outkicked in the stretch. He’ll likely be saddled with another wide trip, but he should also take a step forward third off the bench. #3 Mile High Miracle (3-1) lost to Zingales King by a neck last out, leading most of the way and holding on until late. He should get to the rail and the lead; from there, it’s a matter of how long he can last. #2 Blue Regalia (20-1) is the lone first-time starter in the field, but he’s a half-brother to three grass winners, and has put in some good workouts on dirt and grass. He’ll be a factor if he shows anything at first asking.
RACE 8: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 1 MILE
5-2-7-3
#5 Lou’s Birthday ran a promising second, with a 79, at Delaware two races ago, then lost all chance at the start last out when he was cut off. He’s unproven beyond 5 1/2 furlongs, but not many of of his rivals are, either. #2 Union Thunder is a first-time starting son of Union Rags, whose progeny have an average winning distance of 7.3 furlongs, and is out of Money Never Sleeps, who won going a mile. Second dam Unbridled Essence was a stakes winner around two turns, and his uncle, Unbridled Daddy, was multiple stakes-placed going longer. #7 Mr. Mendelslew has a short but solid worktab for Carlos Mancilla. His dam, Dynaslew, thrived at longer distances, and has produced a two-turn winner.
RACE 9: CLAIMING $45,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE (GRASS)
9-1-5-3
#9 The Paddock Pastor (2-1) closed good ground off mild fractions and finished third in his local debut, losing only to well-bet rivals who sat much closer to the early tempo. His only bad race came two starts back, when he was rank early on and faded. Shug McGaughey is 2-for-7 with his Maryland grass starters this year; he’ll saddle two in this race. #1 Mickey Shillelagh (5-2) drops for a tag second off the seven-month layoff. He kicked on nicely to break his maiden at Tampa Bay Downs in late December, but was no match for better off modest fractions last out. He should return to his best self here. #5 Breakwater (7-2) didn’t do much at Colonial last out on dirt, but he’s much better-bred for grass, and is in improving form on that surface.
RACE 10: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W3X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES
6-4-1-5
#6 Continentalcongres (8-5) was scratched out of the Caesar’s Wish Stakes two weeks ago, and now returns in here. She went gate-to-wire to beat second-level foes at this distance last out, and once again finds herself as the main speed. #4 Doctor Abbie (4-1) hasn’t run a bad race on this track. She won going away here in mid-February, then finished second to Intrepid Dream in her next two races. Even if Continentalcongres sneaks away with it, this one has enough late speed to outkick the others. #1 Majestic Creed (20-1) hasn’t done much so far this year, but closed her 2023 season with back-to-back figures in the 90s. She took a step forward with a 79 third off the bench last out, so the potential is there for her to keep rounding back to her best self.
RACE 11: MAIDEN CLAIMING $45,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/8 MILES (GRASS)
6-5-1-4
#6 Chevy Man (7-2) ran well in his 2024 debut last out, coming from off the pace and losing a stretch battle to Border War by a half-length with a career-best 86. He adds blinkers here, and should pack another strong late punch. #5 American Memories (2-1) led a long way and held second at Delaware last out. He’ll have to beat out Shrug from his inside, but he’ll be tough if he can secure the early advantage. #1 Raptor Razzle (12-1) outran his odds on debut last out, getting fourth at 93-1 in a similar field, and could get another slice at a price.
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