Nick's Picks: Colonial Downs picks August 22, 2024 * The Racing Biz

Nick’s Picks: Colonial Downs picks August 22, 2024

Nick Hahn
August 22, 2024

He’s probably the only public handicapper who’s ‘capped every race at Colonial Downs since Day One, and he’s back for more in 2024: Nick’s Picks returns with picks and analysis for every day of the Colonial meet.

DATE/POST TIME: August 22/1:30
RACES: 9
CARRYOVERS: None

RACE 1

On dirt, five of nine of the two-year-old fillies at six furlongs make career debut. Trainers Trombetta and McGoey and sire Win Win Win with two entered.

5. Youmakemecharlie	Not my style to pick a first-timer when there is a competent proven starter in the mix but…
2. Delicate	Would not hesitate to move up Tomlinson’s filly and she should see the lead early on.
7. Conquerthosewecan	It’s been nine days since Russell’s filly sprang a bullet work at Fair Hill. Toledo rides a nice first-time starter.

RACE 2

In this turf sprint, as the condition suggests, no recent winners. Recent solid performers are rising in class with many switching from dirt.

8. Theodora Grace	Robert Klesaris returns a Noble Mission veteran back to the turf where she showed similar form to her winning ways at Saratoga in 2023.
2. Whiteknuckleflyer	Karamanos gets the mount on a mare that, important here, on turf drops in class after solid outings. Draw a line through the last start.
4. Golden Can	Whether on dirt or turf, Golden Can has been a steady performer at this claiming price.

RACE 3

Back to sprinting on the dirt for two-year-olds and like the opener today, five first-timers debut in a field a nine.

8. All the Luck	Bowersock’s Lookin at Lucky-sired gelding improved in second career start, both at Colonial, and adds blinkers today.
4. Volt	D J Stables’ $300k Tapit purchase debuts for Casse, who is having a great Colonial meet, with jockey McCarthy aboard.
9. Amy’s Music	Compelling that Trombetta is debuting one on the dirt with such a solid turf pedigree. He must have picked up on something.

RACE 4

Two trained by Arch Kingsley, over jumps, the other from Saratoga and an 8-length winner on dirt are part of this colorful turf route.

4. St James the Great	No shame in a solid Grade 2 effort for Brion’s Catholic Boy gelding who has faced and competed with Legend of Time and Fulmineo.
1. Oishi	Very similar to Brion’s gelding is Ochoa’s battler, who faced Fulmineo, Crystal Quest and In a Jam without shame.
3. Create Trouble	An $870,000 purchase as a 2yo, this one got a win by 8 lengths in first turf attempt pulled to the slop and in first in Russell barn. Greets turf with high pedigree today.

RACE 5

Back to the dirt for 10 maiden claimers with few accolades to go on, but that can still make for a very competitive race.

9. Balenciaga Betty	After a discouraging three-year-old year in California, this filly has shown some recent promise. Note Cajun Expectation race at Gulfstream, as that runner won here 7/19.
7. Diva de Oro	Comment line important to show that the jockey lost iron in her debut on the Colonial turf, so dismiss the quick turnaround.
3. Ladys Chant	Certainly Bowerstock’s filly can run third as the last three races have shown.

RACE 6

On the dirt veteran Virginia-restricted males sprint six furlongs including an aging Virginia champion and an upstart three-year-old colt.

6. Play Like a Raven	The only colt in the race is Russell’s three-year-old, likable more for his closing ability than his experience. Goes for third straight win.
2. Johnyz From Albany	Who is going to win the inside speed contest starting from the rail? Likely Karamanos but tough to lead for 6 1/2 furlongs.
1. Repo Rocks	Virgnia champion had a huge effort trying seven furlongs in his last start, but maybe has seen better racing days.

NICK’S NOTES

Picks continue below.
No Cents Non Cents won the finale on last Saturday’s card for Ashland’s Eagle Point Farm providing trainer Karen Godsey her second win of the meet. Godsey was one of the first trainers to give mounts to jockey Gavin Ashton when his plans to be a regular rider for a trainer scheduled to stable at Colonial in 2023 didn’t materialize. After Godsey’s first five weekend starters finished off the board, it was a nice way to finish the day.
The win concluded the late double for Nick’s Picks, which continues to roll, picking five top shelf winners last Saturday. No Cents Non Cents paid $9.60 to close out the double started with Echo Lane paying $15.60 with Antonio Gallardo aboard for trainer Rohan Crichton. Nick’s Picks concluded “sixweek” (a week with six days of racing due to prior weather postponements). The double paid $63.10 for a $1 wager, and Nick’s Picks remains in the black with a 30.9% win ratio.
Saturday’s card began with a win by For Flying trained by Graham Motion and delivered by Victor Carrasco. For Flying is owned by Newstead Stables in Upperville, Virginia. Newstead should sound familiar to those versed in not only Virginia racing but also racing in America. In the last century, Newstead Farm, owned by Bertram and Diana Firestone, had a history-making win in the 1980 Kentucky Derby with Genuine Risk, the first filly to win the Run for the Roses in 66 years. Newstead also won the Travers in 1976 with General Assembly and owned Winchester, the winner of Sword Dancer (G1), and Middleburg, who won the Red Bank (G3). Though the Firestones purchased the Upperville property eleven years after Genuine Risk’s milestone feat in the Triple Crown, the estate has been recognized with Firestone’s thoroughbred legacy until it was sold in 2020. Genuine Risk is buried on the estate, and in one of my favorite farm visits ever, I was able to visit her at the ripe and active age of 28. Her groom through her years, Buddy Moore, now lives in Maryland.
New owners Steven and Jessica Jell look to continue the tradition of Newstead Stables and are transitioning part of their stable from South Africa. They are off to a wonderful start. Racing as Newstead Stables LLC, they have sent out three horses — Royal Wintour, Marian Cross and For Flying — in the US. Those three have made 10 starts and won four of them. This could be emerging as the Harley Davidson of comebacks of a former Virginia Thoroughbred farm.

RACE 7

Returning to the turf are eight Virginia-restricted fillies and mares making for several options including three off a maiden score.

8. Ragtime Lady	Won the head-to-head over Determined Princess in this field on a yielding Colonial track at this level. The firmer may be favorable.
2. Doesn’thurttoflirt	The last win for Rubley’s filly was at a mile, shortened from a four straight mile-plus races including a stake at Delaware.
6. Determind Princess	Determined’s homebred also may benefit from firmer going and adds blinkers for Trombetta. She’s been much better on the turf.

RACE 8

Turf sprint has a number of talented entries up for claim to meet the race condition, something not done in past race histories.

5. Maya Prince	Certainly a homer factoring both his wins happened at Colonial and Karamanos giving a good ride in his first Colonial start this season.
8. Cloudy	Watch out, especially if Cheminaud stays onboard for Shug despite being up for the claim. Vincent shows up to win at Colonial.
6. Advance Cash	Four of the Peltrouche-trained (and -ridden) six-year-old gelding’s wins happened this year on the West Virginia dirt. Hasn’t seen the turf in a while.

RACE 9

Biggest field of the day is in the finale, a turf route for nonwinners of three matching young versus veterans again.

4. Atmidnight	With a win in the meet already, Saville took aim in higher company with a new jockey. Returns to lift up the meet’s leading rider again.
10. Glossamer	Maybe a change of venue is all that’s needed to get Ashby’s elder mare to the wire first after three straight second-place finishes at Delaware.
7. Solving Progress	A viable option is Trombetta’s well-bred four-year-old trying the turf for the first time after winning on the Delaware dirt by over 12 lengths.