Timonium picks AND PONDERINGS: september 1, 2024

John Piassek is here to provide Timonium picks and analysis for every day of live racing at the Maryland State Fair.

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Late Pick 5: $0

RACE 1: CLAIMING $5,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

  1. #1 – Stellars in Charge (7-5): Speedy gelding won easily on the lead last out, and should run them off their feet.
  2. #5 – Aim for the Cork (15-1): Lost all hope after a bad break in his most recent start, but his other recent races contend with these.
  3. #6 – Discreet Devil (3-1): Chased the pace and held fourth on opening day; should be a similar story here.

RACE 2: CLAIMING $5,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE

  1. #3 – Bravo Zulu (6-1): Ran a solid third against better first off a seven-week layoff at Delaware Park; looks like the best alternative to the two morning line choices. 
  2. #5 – Mysisternancy (8-5): Has plenty of early speed and is a threat to lead for every step.
  3. #1 – Irish Lace (9-5): Has in-and-out form but her best wins this.

RACE 3: CLAIMING $5,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 1/2 FURLONGS

  1. #4 – Dream River (2-1): Won gate-to-wire on opening day and is a threat to do it again.
  2. #1 – Burningupthedough (4-1): Should save more ground than last time, which would mean an improved effort. 
  3. #3 – Pure Realization (5-1): Should be on or near the early pace.         

RACE 4: MAIDEN CLAIMING $12,500, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 4 FURLONGS

  1. #1 – Stormy Irish Lass (9-5): After a few defeats at low odds, she should be able to handle these.
  2. #5 – Quiet Dancer (5-2): Catches a soft field for her debut and has solid workouts.
  3. #6 – Sunny Sunshine (8-5): Four furlongs might be perfect for this speedy gal.     

RACE 5: CLAIMING $5,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE

  1. #4 – Dark and Fitzy (4-1): If his form translates from grass to dirt, he wins.                
  2. #3 – Timely Prospect (5-2): Scratched yesterday to run here;  he’s probably best in the field on ability, but hard to take low odds on a horse in their first start off a six-month layoff.       
  3. #6 – Factotum (12-1): He also hasn’t run in a while, but at his best, he’s very speedy.

RACE 6: CLAIMING $5,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 1/2 FURLONGS

  1. #7 – Up Against It (3-1): He scratched yesterday in favor of this easier spot; ran well over the winter but was flat first off the bench last out; willing to give him another shot.     
  2. #4 – Noble Union (6-1): Ran his best race in months last out.
  3. #1 – Positively Awesome (4-1): Fought hard to win his most recent start.

RACE 7: CLAIMING $10,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 1/2 FURLONGS

  1. #8 – Remember Me (5-2): Speedy filly should lead all the way against these.   
  2. #3 – Cora’s Choice (8-1): She’ll take advantage if Remember Me can’t last on the lead.
  3. #5 – Forgotten Gift (2-1): She was second behind a gate-to-wire winner last Saturday; could be the same story here.                  

RACE 8: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 4 FURLONGS

  1. #4 – Campaign Promises (8-1): The only one in the field with experience; she closed well for second after a bad break on debut.
  2. #1 – Loveumom (8-1): Watching the board on this Jamie Ness-trained firster; dam was a winner at 2 and has produced a 2-year-old winner.
  3. #2 – Curb (6-1): Both siblings to race won at 2, and Phil Capuano is solid with first-time starters.

RACE 9: STARTER ALLOWANCE $5,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES

  1. #2 – Sweet Heidelberg (5-2): Went gate-to-wire going a mile last out; if she can get to the rail and the lead, she’ll be tough to catch.
  2. #3 – Six the Hard Way (3-1): Her only bad race within her last three starts came when she broke poorly.
  3. #6 – Always Forward (8-1): Got up to win last out despite racing wide the whole way.

RACE 10: MAIDEN CLAIMING $5,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 4 FURLONGS

  1. #5 – Bajan Boy (5-2): Showed speed and faded last out; looks for improvement first off the claim by Phil Capuano.
  2. #9 – Drew d’Oro (8-5): Has plenty of early speed and is sure to be gunned to the front from the far outside.
  3. #3 – Chochocho (7-2): NJ invader will try to protect early position on the rail.

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