Deterministic rallies to win G3 Virginia Derby

The correct answer to every question on Colonial Downs’s stakes-filled closing day card Saturday was simple: Manny Franco.

Franco, the 29-year-old, Puerto Rico-born jockey, made his first visit to New Kent of 2024 Saturday and very nearly swept the track’s six-pack of stakes, winning five, one in a head-heat, and finishing second in the other.

And he saved the best for last.

Franco and even-money favorite Deterministic rallied outside to run down Grand Mo the First late to win the $500,000, Grade 3 Virginia Derby to cap an eventful day of racing and, it is expected, to conclude the race’s life under the Virginia Derby moniker. Next year, track officials plan to use the Virginia Derby name for Colonial’s new Kentucky Derby points race.

“I don’t think I’ve ever had a hotter jock on a horse than Manny is today,” said Steven Duncker, who co-owns Deterministic with St. Elias Stable, Ken Langone, and Vicarage Stable.

“Every time I come with a good mind so I have a good chance to win races,” Franco said. “I’m just happy to have this unbelievable day.”

Deterministic, now a graded stakes winner on both dirt and turf, has had quite an interesting career – all of that in just seven starts. The Christophe Clement trainee won his first two starts, including a score in the Grade 3 Gotham that put him on the Kentucky Derby trail.

That trail went sideways in a hurry, though. Deterministic, a three-year-old Liam’s Map colt, finished well up the track as the 4-5 favorite in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial. Then he was well beaten again in the Grade 3 Peter Pan.

“We went to the Wood Memorial, and he ran as badly as he did in the Wood, I think the horse has told you it’s not the right thing to do to go to the Derby,” Duncker said. “So we took one more shot with the Peter Pan because we thought maybe you could just throw that one race out, and he might be a dirt horse.”

Deterministic
Deterministic rallied to win the G3 Virginia Derby. Photo by Coady Media.

When that didn’t work out, the decision to switch to the lawn was an easy one.

“Christophe has always thought his action on the turf was incredible,” Duncker said. “He’s called him one of the best movers he’s ever had.”

Deterministic ran second in the Grade 3 Manila and then third, beaten just a length-and-a-half, in the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby in his first two turf tries. That brought him and his connections to New Kent with high hopes.

Longshots Izzy d’Oro and and Echo Lane made the early running in the nine-furlong contest, the former holding a length lead after a half-mile in 48.47 seconds. Grand Mo the First was another 1 ½ lengths back, while Deterministic was sixth, 4 ½ lengths back and between horses.

“By the five-eighths pole, I didn’t feel comfortable where I was,” Franco said. “But as soon as I asked my horse, he responded.”

Rounding the far turn, Franco asked his mount, steering him wide entering the lane, and he responded with gusto, wearing down Grand Mo the First – another dirt horse-turned turf horse, albeit one who actually ran in the Kentucky Derby, finishing 18th – in late stages to win. Running time was 1:47.76 over a firm course.

Grand Mo the First finished second, while Virginia-based Desvio, trained by Madison Meyers in Middleburg, was a good third.

Deterministic paid $4.00 to win, and the exacta, with the top betting selections finishing one-two, returned $6.00 for a one-dollar wager.

Deterministic now has three wins from seven career starts. The winner’s share gives him a bankroll of $667,750.

He wasn’t a Kentucky Derby horse, but a Virginia Derby horse is nothing to sneeze at, either.

“It’s hard to win a big race, hard, I mean, even money, not even money,” Duncker said. “So we’re over the moon. It’s good, good stuff.”

NOTES Franco stuck around for the nightcap, which surely had to tell the betting public something, and he once again got the money, this time aboard Mrs. Astor for trainer Jonathan Thomas and Augustin Stable. The win gave him seven on the day, tying Mario Pino’s longstanding single-day Colonial Downs record… Handle topped $5.2 million on the day… Colonial’s meet ended today; its new spring meet is slated for March…

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