Nick's Picks: Colonial Downs picks September 7, 2024 * The Racing Biz

Nick’s Picks: Colonial Downs picks September 7, 2024

Nick Hahn
September 7, 2024

He’s probably the only public handicapper who’s ‘capped every race at Colonial Downs since Day One, and he’s back for more in 2024: Nick’s Picks returns with picks and analysis for every day of the Colonial meet.

DATE/POST TIME: September 7, 2024/1:00 p.m.
RACES: 12
CARRYOVERS: Pick 6, $9,483

RACE 1

At 1:00 pm, not 1:30pm, the Virginia Derby day card begins on the dirt with a sprint for two-year-old maiden claimers.

6. Fontabelle	The maidens with race experience in this group haven’t shown much, making the DARRS first timer with Russell aboard look better.
1. Nancy Mary	Dilodivico sends out only his second of the meet shortening up his Wicked Strong filly in her second start and puts Karamanos on top.
11. Thunder Bern	West would like to forget the long mile in Indiana and returns his filly to her opening day distance where she ran second.

RACE 2

Plenty of speed will be on the front end of this turf sprint coming for all parts of the starting gate in this optional claiming race.

6. Horsepower	Orseno’s three-year-old may be a little fresher than others after a near-miss outfinishing King Covee at Colonial after a win at Monmonth.
5. Abadin	Maker tried to put his four-year-old on the turf for the first time at Saratoga, which his breeding might have suggested in the first place.
2. King Covee	Schoenthal’s gelding gave his stablemate a tussle late in the Punchline Stakes but comes back after a week.

RACE 3

Back on the dirt to sprint 6 1/2 furlongs with optional claimers all that have at least seen stakes company.

5. Arden’sluckytobe	Perhaps the right spot for McClure’s veteran after a win in July here at Colonial returning Lyapustina aboard.
6. Love the Nest	Maybe not likely as other picks but would make quite a comeback story if Blair’s horse can get his fifth straight win after nearly a two-year layoff.
1. Patriot Spirit	Campbell’s Illinois Derby winner shortens to a sprint in making his first start in over four months, his first facing elders.

RACE 4

Two-year-old maidens test a turf route all strangers to each other previously competing at different venues.

10. Marshal	Stidham debuts his Justify colt, a $600k purchase of Pin Oak’s, in a field where not much was shown in past races.
6. Academy
4. Patrick’s Promise	Could have run at Kentucky Downs on Thursday but Clement chose to run Shel Evans’ Tonalist colt at Colonial instead.

RACE 5

The $150,000 Colonial Cup on turf at a 1 1/2 miles is a Colonial type of race. Despite short field many angles. Scratch Pitts’s gelding.

3. Webslinger	Waiting for Casse’s four-year-old to run at Colonial Downs for over 2 years. Not discouraged by 7th in the United Nations. Battle tested.
6. McLovin	Curtis in a short field with a Brisset horse making his first start of the year after a solid late summer at Colonial. A threat.
2. Truly Quality	Likely a much better horse for Thomas now than the one that gave up the lead at Keeneland. Underrated Quality Road four-year-old.

RACE 6

The $125,000 Rosie’s for two-year-olds sprinting on the turf draws out of state interest facing an accomplished Colonial duo from July.

1. Curahee	The six-length win on the good going early in the meet was over a small field, but at six lengths was still impressive.
8. Dancing Bear	Not enough is said about War Dancers running at Colonial Downs. This one is out of a Curlin mare bred in New York.
12. Lazio	Rebounded out of the Curahee setback to win with Gallardo aboard. Maybe could place higher if not for head-to-head loss to top choice.

NICK’S NOTES

Picks continue below.
Trainer Chuck Lawrence is finishing up the Colonial Downs meet on a heater. Winless with his first 15 Colonial starters this year, he’s now won with four of his last five. he won the last three races on Friday night after only getting his first win of the meet on Thursday.
Jockey Mychel Sanchez won three races Friday and now has 21 wins — three behind Ben Curtis, who has 24, and even with Antonio Gallardo. All three will be busy Saturday, with Gallardo named on 11 mounts to Curtis’ eight and Sanchez’s seven.
Trainer Michael Trombetta earned two Friday wins to move two ahead of Mike Stidham in the trainer standings, 15-13.
Couple price horses caught our eye today as we ask Four Virginia Derby day questions.

RACE 7

The $125,000 Kitten’s Joy seeks a competitor out of a 12-horse field in the turf route to debunk the 18-length win on dirt by Thirlla.

11. Ready for Peace	With a jump on the outside, Correas’ filly has enough class and an experienced Colonial jockey to come out on top.
2. Thrilla	No reason to think that Desormeuax’s colt isn’t capable, but could find the encore on turf challenging.
1. Aristotle	Casse’s colt never seems to want to leave the battle. Earned a win in last start through a disqualification.

RACE 8

The $150,000 Da Hoss includes Dream Shake looking for a Colonial stakes double among 14 drawn. Determined Kingdom to scratch.

5. Isivunguvungu	Can’t pronounce but have heard about this sharp Fair Hill worker for some time. A great place to make his North American debut.
7. Run Carson	Not Carson’s Run but a Colonial winner that followed up with a hard trying second at Saratoga.
9. Dream Shake	Doesn’t seem to run a poor race, at least on turf. His Van Clief win was so impressive, it will be difficult to repeat.

RACE 9

The last $250,000 Virginia Oaks expected on turf drew thirteen with no clear standouts even among Saratoga shippers.

7. Deep Satin	DeVaux ships down her maiden breaking filly sired by American Pharoah who may have just learned how to win.
13. Belle of Rights	Boyce has won this race before and returns to ride Shug’s filly rested after a rally in Delaware.
5. Distorted d’Oro	Draw a line through Stidham’s filly’s last start pulled to the dirt, and there is a lightly race undefeated turf pulling morning works.

RACE 10

The $500,000 Virginia Derby (G3) features past winning trainers Clement and McGaughey. In a Jam expected to scratch.

7. Desvio	In a well balanced field, a local jockey on a young well-bred gelding may be all the difference you need.
11. Fulmineo	The ground was low and the class high for Delacour’s colt who has a win at Colonial last summer.
3. Deterministic	Once on many Kentucky Derby lists in early 2024, Clement’s colt has been competitive but not convincing on turf.

RACE 11

Filly maidens sprint on the turf with nearly every starter having been close with a second in prior start. Many capable.

4. Tales to Tell	In the trainer standings, this could be a big race for Stidham with a filly who starts her career with three consecutive seconds.
1. Dona Illusion	Correas winning at over 42% places Karamanos on a first-time starter.
3. Morning Miracle	Jordon Blair’s filly may have picked up a notch in her transition to turf in her last start, running even late with Charlottesapproval.

RACE 12

In the finale of the meet, a turf route full of optional claimers, Atmidnight looks to become the only three-time winner of the meet.

5. Mrs. Astor	Jonathan Thomas had his older filly cross-entered at Kentucky Downs but chose to run here with a minor class drop.
11. St. Susan	Carmouche got the win, Cheminaud the next mount and Curtis today’s ride for Clement on Shel Evans’ Quality Road sophomore.
7. Sleepwalker	Casse’s filly nearly delivered in her last start at Colonial Downs and will likely be on the front end again.