Laurel Park picks and ponderings: September 13, 2024

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: 
Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $0
Jackpot Super High 5 — $0
Late Pick 5  $0

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RACE 1: CLAIMING $12,500 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

4-1-3-6

#4 Gabriel Seven (4-1), a two-time winner on this track, makes his return after a pair of starts at Charles Town. He led every step and held on over next-out winner River Crossroad Rvf in his last start. He’s won from off the pace before as well. #1 Prom Knight (10-1) turned in a much-improved effort to win at Penn National last out following three consecutive dismal tries. He hasn’t yet put together back-to-back good races, but this kind of condition might suit him well. #3 Dream River (9-2) faded after getting entangled in a duel last out at Timonium. He tends to run his best races when left alone on the lead, but he at least looks fast enough to potentially wrestle away total control.

RACE 2: CLAIMING $30,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

2-3-8-1

#2 Lenamagnetta (20-1) broke her maiden here two starts back, then was well on her way to outrunning her odds in her first try against winners at Colonial Downs last out. Competing against Virginia-restricted allowance foes, she battled through fast early fractions and held the lead at the top of the stretch when she abruptly slipped on her hind legs. Though she quickly straightened herself back up, Alberto Delgado pulled her up. That obscures how good an effort it was, and she should go off at an inflated price. #3 Rye Smile (9-5) just missed in her first try against winners, rallying for third from well off the pace. She’s gotten better with each recent grass start and should pack a serious late punch. #8 Asknotwhenyoucando (7-2) made her first start off a year-long layoff at Colonial last out, and made a move in the stretch before (rather unsurprisingly) flattening out. She should take a step forward second off the bench.

RACE 3: CLAIMING $12,500 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

5-4-2-6

#5 Amani’s Tiger (7-5) flattened out as the favorite at this condition last out when he couldn’t sustain his move down the long one-turn mile stretch. He gets a little more distance today and gets a rider switch to Jaime Rodriguez, who should work out a ice trip with this gelding. If there’s any field he can beat, it’s this one. #4 Car Ride (9-2) is the only one in the field who has not lost against winners for a tag, and one of two in here who has not lost against them at least four times (the other, General J R, took 27 tries to break his maiden). This one showed some promise when he came from well off the pace to break his maiden two races back, then ran into a tough first-level field at Timonium last out and proved no match. He’s turned in a good workout since then and is now in against much easier. #2 Last Second Louie (8-5) led early and held second last out, holding off Amani’s Tiger in the process. He’ll likely set the early tempo in a largely paceless affair.

RACE 4: CLAIMING $7,500 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

6-4-5-1

#6 Sapphire Beauty (5-2) has been pounding on the door against similar in her last few starts. She just missed two and three races back, then chased the pace and finished third behind better at Charles Town last out. These rivals look more to her liking. #4 Afleet Diva (20-1) got caught wide last out, but when she gets to the early lead, she tends to showcase her best self. The last time Ederik Robles rode her, she went gate-to-wire at Delaware Park, and Robles now gets back aboard. She’s worth a look at a price. #5 Preparefortakeoff (7-5) has somewhat in-and-out form, but won impressively against these types three starts back, so her peak effort likely wins this.

RACE 5: MAIDEN CLAIMING $12,500, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS

8-6-5-7

In a race where no one with experience has shown much, I’ll lean on a first-time starter. #8 Pint Glass (8-1), one of two in here for Keri Brion, showed some promise in the morning at Delaware in July, vanished for a few weeks, but returned to the worktab at Fair Hill with a pair of drills this month. None of his rivals have run a brisnet figure better than 50 on dirt, so as long as this one shows any ability at first asking, he’s a contender. #6 Edelweiss (2-1) was well-bet when debuted for a $30,000 tag at Ellis Park, but broke a big slowly and was no factor from there. He adds blinkers and drops in class for his second career outing, and will be live if he’s worth anywhere close to his $385,000 purchase price. #5 Bishop Meade (15-1) showed speed and improved sharply when switched to grass second time out (although he still ended up beaten 12 lengths, it was a drastic upgrade from his 39-length debut defeat). He drops in for a tag for the first time, and we’ll see if that improvement is attributable to a surface switch or an overall improvement in form.

RACE 6: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

1-5-9-3

#1 Payout Ratio (9-2) has won her last two starts in gate-to-wire style. She has by far the best early pace figures in the race, so she’s a good bet to take the early lead and keep on going. #5 Union Suit (3-1) has stayed close to the pace and turned in decent efforts in her two grass tries this year, both of which came when rounding back into form off a year-plus layoff. Graham Motion got off to a blazing-hot start at the summer meet, but has lost with his last eight starters here. #9 Shine On Moon (5-1) has great tactical speed, and might get first crack at Payout Ratio if that one falters. Her only bad grass race came in her 2024 debut, when she broke slowly and was no factor from there.

RACE 7: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 FURLONGS

6-5-2-7

#6 Daze (8-5) has worked well at Fair Hill for Brittany Russell, with three pullet drills, two of them from the gate, since late July. Second dam Dream won at first asking as a 2-year-old, and two of her offspring won as freshmen. #5 Queen’s Wealth (5-1) ships in from Eric McClellan’s Penn National base with a short but sharp worktab under her belt. She looks like the best value of the four firsters. #2 Souper Upgrade (6-1) went off at 7-2 on debut at Colonial, in a race with plenty of well-backed firsters, and made solid late ground to grab a clear-cut third. She’ll be tough if she improves off of that debut figure of 65.

RACE 8: MAIDEN CLAIMING $30,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

10-15-12-3

#10 Dropping Lemons (4-1) pressed the pace and lost by a nose in a stretch battle in her grass debut two starts back. She switches back to grass after finishing well-beaten at Timonium last out, and makes her first start beyond seven furlongs. #15 Channel Loop (2-1) has had many cracks against these types and hasn’t come through, but has run her two best figures in her last two grass tries in near-miss efforts. She held third after pressing a gate-to-wire winner at Colonial last out. #12 Audibly (9-2) is also rounding into career-best form, but often leaves herself with too much to do late. She’ll hope for a sharp early pace to close into.

RACE 9: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W3X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

1-2-5-7

#1 Irish Exit (9-5) is my preferred half of a strong Jamie Ness-trained entry. He’s won six of his last seven, with his only loss coming on an off track in January. He fought hard to defeat #2 Brilliant Ice (2-1) at this level last out, and ran his career-best figure, a 96, going two turns last December. He’s poised to get a great trip and kick on. Brilliant Ice has finished second to Irish Exit in his first two tries at this level, but was a dominant winner against second-level rivals three starts back, and has run in the 90s three time sin a row for the first time in his career within his last three starts. He’s largely unproven around two turns, but if there’s any time he’ll run well at this distance, it’s now. #5 Boss Logic (12-1) led almost every step at Timonium last out in his best performance in a while. He ran in the 90s consistently through the end of last year, but that last effort could be a harbinger of better things to come.

RACE 10: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

3-6-8-1

#3 High Breeze (7-2) catches an inexperienced field for her debut. While Graham Motion firsters tend to get overbet, this one has the pedigree to be an exception to the rule, being a half-sibling to three grass winners, including graded stakes-placed Wicked Fast. #6 U Know When U Know (4-1) is out of a mare who was twice stakes-placed on grass and has also produced the successful grass sprinter Kissed by Fire. #8 Impetus Echo (3-1) set the pace and held third at first asking on this track, and ships back down here for George Weaver. She’s likely to be forwardly-placed early.

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