Delaware Park picks and analysis: September 18, 2024
The Biz- September 18, 2024
Picks and analysis for this afternoon’s card from Delaware Park:
- DATE: September 18, 2024, 12:30 p.m. first post
- RACES ON CARD: 8
- CARRYOVERS:Â Middle Pick 5, $14,299; Late Pick 5, $10,004
- POST TIME: 12:30 p.m.
RACE 1
| 6. Striking Speed |
| 5. Red Devolution |
| 3. Living Water |
RACE 2
| 2. Nautilus |
| 4. English Bob |
| 7. Bonded |
RACE 3 – OFF THE TURF; MIDDLE PICK 5 STARTS HERE
| 13. Ramiel |
| 12. Stonington |
| 11. Vamos Carlitos |
An interesting maiden special on the turf has become an off the turf affair for 2yo maidens… With some first-timers and some never-on-the-turfers, there are a lot of ways to go. Start with one we don’t have in the top three: #2 Whizbang hasn’t run badly in three prior main-track tries, albeit against lesser, and stretching out against special weight rivals, as he did in latest, seemed to work ok, too. He deserves a look… A similar runner is #5 Batter Up from the strong Stidham barn; he ran evenly on debut while parked outside at Colonial in a race that produced next-out winner Thrilla (who then ran third in the Kitten’s Joy) and then stretched out well enough while shifted to the turf. He’ll be back on dirt if he posts here and is another who I wouldn’t steer you away from… Normally, we’d be inclined against using #11 Vamos Carlitos in this spot; sire Catholic Boy has a poor record with debut runners (4%) and none of three sibs won on debut – but, and this is a big but, trainer Thomas is 4-for-9, with eight in the money, with debut runners at DEL… #12 Stonington got clobbered leaving the gate in his debut and couldn’t go with the top pair late but remained willing for show dough… #13 Ramiel got sawed off by the winner a few jumps out of the gate in his debut but sitll ran pretty well and then stretched out well enough on the turf for a barn that thrives with 2yo…
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RACE 4 – LATE PICK 5 STARTS HERE
| 4. He’s in Charge | Formful sort beat similar two back and returns to best distance |
| 8. Sassy Lad | Rides three-race win streak while climbing class ladder |
| 3. Rapid Response | Throttled lesser in latest but most recent try versus similar wasn’t good |
We’re inclined to say if you have the 4 and 8 in your P5, you’re pretty well covered…
RACE 5 – OFF THE TURF
| 9. Return Fire | Speedy sort just missed in latest and should again be a forward factor |
| 4. Big Andy Mort | Best efforts probably win here |
| 13. Mungo | If he stays in, he could be a player in first on dirt; breeding points to dirt and wet track (Munnings a strong dirt and wet surface influence) |
One other you could consider in your P5 play is #3 Unaffected. He’s got a couple of dirt tries that could contend here, and the breeding suggests an off track won’t be a problem. Plus he makes his second start off the bench here…
RACE 6 – OBEAH STAKES
| 7. Venti Valentine | Multiple stakes winner a threat to steal this one on the front end; recent form not as good as others, but has plenty of back class and might get brave while offering value |
| 9. Saddle Up Jessie | Not sure this one will offer much value in the end, but she’s the most likely winner; ran willingly at big odds in G2 DelCap two back, and last out was taken out of her game and forced into attack mode when speedy Malibu Beauty threatened to stroll off with paceless affair; should find a bit better setup today, and best efforts would win |
| 12. Miss New York | Stakes winner at three missed much of 4yo campaign before returning in July with a fifth-place finish sprinting but got in gear in latest when stretched out to two turns in LRL allowance and now makes third start of cycle |
What do you make of #3 Magical Lute or #5 Ragtime Belle in here? The former won the Iowa Distaff two back and a Keeneland allowance two before that, interspersing those with clunkers. The form’s a bit in-and-out, but if patterns hold, she might be on an “in” today… The latter won a local allowance by a dozen lengths last out while earning the top last-out Beyer in the field of 88. Still, we’re inclined against: she beat just three rivals that day and had a perfect setup as the two favorites dueled each other into submission…
RACE 7 – OFF THE TURF
| 4. Heybackatcha | 5yo mare ran decently last out in first of the season and has better dirt tries on the page |
| 11. Vanellope | Broke her maiden in an off-the-turf affair |
| 8. Search | Not a bad try in latest with third at Timonium |
RACE 8
| 7. Funzalo | Credible try in latest and drops to bottom here; if Search runs well in R7, give this one extra credit, as she bested that rival last out |
| 1. Turbo Millie | Has finished in the exacta in last three dirt tries |
| 5. Luminous Ruler | Shifts into Simone barn and occasionally fires |
One other we gave some thought to was #6 Tiz D Amazin Lady, a lightly-raced last-out maiden winner. She needs to improve to contend here, but with just three starts under her belt, that’s pretty plausible, and at 10-1, she could offer value. But, hey, you gotta cut somewhere…
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