Laurel Park picks and ponderings: September 22, 2024

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: 
Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $0
Jackpot Super High 5 — $0
Late Pick 5 — $0

Check out our other handicapping here!

RACE 1: CLAIMING $20,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

6-9-14-2 (DIRT: 9-12-10-3)

#6 Bunny Hop (5-2) was no match for better at Delaware Park last out, but stays on grass and finds herself at a more comfortable class level. By far her two best brisnet figures, including an 80 last out, were earned on grass. #9 Little Josie Wales (3-1) went off as the odds-on choice at this level in her last grass start, but chased the pace and finished second. She’s enjoyed great success on the Laurel Park lawn, and you’ll get a much better price today if you still believe. #14 Nuwanda (5-1) cleared her non-winners of two condition three starts back on this track with a dramatic late rally, and looks for a rebound after a dull try against similar at Colonial Downs last out.

RACE 2: MAIDEN CLAIMING $20,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 1 MILE

7-4-2-3

#7 Fear Nothing (7-5) has already run in the 60s twice in his four-race career, something most of these struggle to do. He adds blinkers today, and Hammy Smith tends to do well with runners stretching out for the first time. None of his rivals have run beyond six furlongs, either. #4 Flashy Dude (8-5) is the only other starter to run in the 60s, earning a 66 on debut before regressing badly as the favorite next out. He’s dropping from the $30,000 level and hopes to bounce back for the Jamie Ness/Jaime Rodriguez dynamic duo. #2 Lucky Day (12-1) improved sharply at second asking at Colonial last out, and could hang around for a share.

RACE 3: CLAIMING $20,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

8-16-7-12 (DIRT: 10-13-11-7)

#8 White Heat (3-1) has set the pace and held on to hit the board in each of her two tries against winners, and now goes first off the claim by T.J. Aguirre. She looks like she’ll be tough to catch with her usual trip. #16 Romantic Story (4-1) finished a solid-closing second against slightly better non-winners of two foes last out, in her first grass sprint start. This distance and field looks well-suited for her. #7 Fondre (7-2) surged and just missed first off a 5 1/2-month layoff at Colonial last out, and should work out a great trip just off the pace.

RACE 4: CLAIMING $20,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

7-1-2-8

#7 Stormy Midnight (6-1) has been pounding on the door at this level, sitting on or near the pace and just missing in her last two starts. Two races ago, she shook off her dueling partner, but couldn’t hold off the winner’s late rally; then lost in a blanket finish next out. #1 How Sweet She Is (2-1) has a rather unsightly 1-for-14 career record, but most of those defeats have been against better rivals than these. She consistently runs in the mid/upper-70s, and that kind of race puts her in the mix with these. #2 Bailintin (4-1) closed well and finished less than a length behind How Sweet She Is in her last start. She gobbled up ground and outfinished Stormy Midnight for second in her prior start. She showed a stronger punch in those races than in her races earlier this year at Parx, so she might be turning a corner.

RACE 5: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 7 FURLONGS

6-7-1-10

#6 Mine the Gold (5-2), one of four first-timers in the field, gets the nod in a sub-par straight maiden group. He joined Brittany Russell’s string in mid-May, hand has worked well over the past few weeks, including two bullet drills on this track. As long as he runs somewhere in the mid/upper-70s at first asking, he’ll likely beat these. #7 Pilote Comete (8-1) has improved with each start this year for Ben Perkins. He showed some late kick to grab third with a career-best 80 at Delaware on July 13, and now races for the first time since then. #1 Beaver State (9-2) has faced better maidens in his two career tries at Ellis Park, and should put in a solid late bid first time out for Robby Bailes.

RACE 6: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, MD-RESTRICTED, 7 FURLONGS

3-8-1-10

#3 Sheliahs Warcloud (4-1) looked like one of the most promising members of the Maryland-bred 3-year-old filly crop, but went to the sidelines after a season-opening win in January. She returned to the races with a very solid second-place effort at Colonial against second-level foes, running a career-best 86. She now drops in class and returns to her home turf, and should be very tough to beat. #8 Go Sherry Go (5-1) cuts back around one turn after two consecutive flat efforts going longer. She was a game second to the speedy Miss Harriet in the Miss Disco Stakes earlier this year, and should chase the pace and grab a share once again. #10 Lovely Charm (7-2) has run in the 80s in each of her last five one-turn tries, and has great late speed that should earn her at least a share.

RACE 7: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE (GRASS)

14-13-10-4 (DIRT: 8-7-16-1)

Jack Fisher and Forest Boyce teamed up to win yesterday, and they’re back at it here with #14 St. John’s (8-1). He’s run at least an 87 in his last three Maryland starts, and came from well out of it to win a 2 1/4-mile contest as much the best at Colonial last out. A mile might be a bit shorter than he’d like, but he still looks like the best of this bunch. #13 No One to Blame (5-2) ran some big races against better both locally and in Kentucky last year, including a pace-setting third at Churchill Downs last out. However, he hasn’t raced since last November. Who could “blame” him if he needed a race? #10 Eldest Son (3-1) tends to come close and just miss at this level, no matter who he races for. He led briefly in his last start first off the claim by Nolan Ramsey, but was nailed in the last few jumps by Crisper, who came back to win back-to-back stakes races. This one was taken out of his last race by Kieron Magee, and looks like a good horse to key underneath.

RACE 8: WEATHER VANE STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 FURLONGS

5-10-2-6

This race is named for the star Maryland-bred sprinter of the mid-1990s, who was named champion Maryland-bred older female in 1998. A wide-open field of 13 runners will line up here. #5 Brookmesa (12-1) gets a stiff class test here, but has plenty of upside. She’s won her last two starts by a combined 12 1/2 lengths, running in the mid/upper-80s both times. In each of her wins, she rated off the pace and pounced, and that kind of style might play well in a race loaded with speed. #10 Cap Classique (9-2) just missed against Carmelina in the Penny Chenery Stakes at Colonial last out, with a career-best 89. She won twice on this track last year, including a sharp win in the Smart Halo Stakes in November, and has some of the best late pace figures in the race. The form of #2 Roanan Goddess (8-1) is somewhat obscured by her string of poor grass tries, but she’s shown plenty of promise on dirt, with two stakes wins on this track, and should also get a nice trip just off a potential duel.

RACE 9: TWIXT STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE

2-7-3-5

The other stakes on today’s program is named in honor of the two-time Maryland-bred Horse of the Year. Note both Miss Justify and Saddle Up Jessie will not go. #2 Continentalcongres (8-1) has blazing early speed, and could herself lonely on the lead. She couldn’t get settled last out, and ended up second behind #3 Miss New York (4-1), but with regular rider Horacio Karamanos back aboard, she should conserve more energy in the early stages and have more to give later on. #7 Mystic Pleasure (5-2) led almost the whole way in the Groupie Doll Stakes at Ellis Park, and managed to hold on to lose by a half-length with a career-best 99. She’ll try to keep Continentalcongres honest from that one’s outside. Miss New York won second off a 9 1/2-month layoff last out, and was second in this race last year when chasing the much-the-best Interstatedaydream. She’ll hope Mystic Pleasure and Continentalcongres do battle in the early stages.

RACE 10: MAIDEN CLAIMING $12,500, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

1A-4-2-8

#1A Bond’s Belle (2-1) chased gate-to-wire winner Italian War Cry last out at Timonium, and ended up holding second with a career-best 70. She takes a drop after three tries for $25,000 to begin her career. #4 Lance’s Smile (5-2) ran well second off the layoff last out outfinishing her pacesetter and ending up second. She improved ten points in that race to a 70. #2 Sweet Honey Bee (8-1) lost a show photo last out, well behind Lance’s Smile, but still ran a career-best 83 in a much-improved effort from her first two tries.

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