Laurel Park picks and ponderings: September 27, 2024
In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…
Post time: 12:25 p.m.
Carryovers:
Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $1,026
Jackpot Super High 5 — $0
Late Pick 5 — $0
Check out our other handicapping here!
RACE 1: CLAIMING $20,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)
3-16-5-1 (DIRT: 11-9-15-12)
#3 Surprise Hello (3-1) was in improving form towards the end of grass season last year, breaking his maiden on the lead four starts back, then holding on for fourth against a tough Maryland-restricted field in his next outing. He made his first start off a long break last out against better, and faded after showing brief speed This spot looks like it’s much more in his wheelhouse. #16 J R Jone Z (12-1) has chased the pace and held on for a share in his two tries in grass sprints. He ran a much-improved brisnet figure of 77 last out, and will be a threat if he duplicates that effort. #5 Duckpins (6-1) has chased the pace and gotten hares against similar in his last few starts, but he’s the only one in the race who’s consistently run in the mid-70s as of late.
RACE 2: CLAIMING $12,500 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE
6-2-10-9
#6 Workislife (2-1) has won two of his last three starts by open lengths, including a dominant third-level win at Charles Town where he came from 13 lengths out of it to win as much the best. He was scratched out of a six-furlong spot last Friday to run here; this distance looks like it’s more in his wheelhouse. #2 In the Dance (5-1) has fallen off a bit from his mid/upper-80s form from earlier in the year, but he did run a nice second in his last dirt try at Timonium. It was solid rebound effort after a disastrous race the start prior, where he raced wide throughout and faded. He should get a nice setup towards the rail in midpack. #10 Rapper Zapper (10-1) ran some big races on synthetic at Woodbine last year, and now makes his first dirt start while in Lacey Gaudet’s barn. He’s run some solid races on grass since returning from a layoff in early July, and should be a late threat.
RACE 3: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)
14-9-1-11 (DIRT: 2-10-12-5)
#14 Switzer (9-5) sat closer to the pace than usual against better last out, and got caught late by Who’s Counting and Vax a Nation, both of whom are much better than anyone in here. If he works out that kind of trip again, it’ll likely be a better one. #9 Prince Khozan (3-1) came from well off a fast pace to get third against a tougher field (including Switzer) at this condition last out. He’s gotten similar setups in his last few races, and while there isn’t a ton of speed in here, there might be just enough to give him the trip he wants. #1 Star Shopping (12-1) made a bit of a premature move in his most recent race, but still held on well and ran in the 80s for second straight race. He tends to flatten out and grab minor shares (as evidenced by his 1-for-20 record on grass), but he’s in sharp enough form lately that he could get a slice at a price. ll and ran in the 80s for the second straight race.
RACE 4: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE
6-2-1-4
#6 Search Engine (3-1) won gate-ot-wire at this level two starts ago, then lost all chance last out when he broke badly and lost early position. He was claimed out of that race by Brittany Russell, and has worked well since that early August effort. #2 Hay Chief (6-1) got up to win against these types in mid-March, taking full advantage of the long one-turn mile stretch to do so, and now gets much-needed class relief after some middling tries against better. This is as idyllic a spot as it gets for him. #1 Time to Cruise (8-1) is in slowly improving form for Jamie Ness, having run in the mid-80s in each of his last two races. That should be good for at least a share against this average bunch.
RACE 5: CLAIMING $20,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)
5-1-6-8 (DIRT: 2-1-4-5)
#5 Please Marry Me (4-1) nearly wired them last out at Colonial Downs, and looms as the main speed in this field. The only serious threat to an easy front-running win is if Classic Diva draws in off the also-eligible list; otherwise, this one could be long gone. #1 Cover the Spread (9-5) was claimed from Brittany Russell by Jamie Ness last out. She fought hard and just missed at Colonial last out, in a race where she couldn’t make her move as soon as she might have liked due to traffic. #6 Wilma Flintshire (10-1) has won two of her last four starts, coming from way out it both times, and made up plenty of ground off a slow pace to get fourth behind Cover the Spread last out. The opening half-mile fraction in that race was 50.18; as long as this tempo is even a bit faster, she has a puncher’s chance.
RACE 6: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS
6-9-3-1
#6 Circle P (4-1) showed some promise last year when he won the Maryland Juvenile, but struggled in Laurel’s 3-year-old stakes series over the winter and spring. However, he bounce back in a big way last out, when he sat off the pace and beat a first-level field going away with a 91, his best figure in 5 1/2 months. If he’s truly regained his best form, he’ll be hard to hold off. #9 Real Talk (7-2) is the only one in the field to run in the 90s in each of his last two starts, and he’s done so four times in a row. He was pressed on the pace and just missed in his last two races, and should hang around here despite likely pace pressure. #3 Catahoula Moon (9-2) has been in in-and-out form for most of the year, but ran well at this condition last out, coming up the rail to lose by a neck in a blanket finish. This looks like his ideal distance.
RACE 7: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/8 MILES (GRASS)
1-9-3-2 (DIRT: 8-12-6-3)
#1 Mission North (2-1) was finally able to settle two starts back, and subsequently turned in a dominant maiden-breaking score with an 88. He ran an 85 against first-level foes at Aqueduct last out, and catches fairly soft field for his first start since that July 6 effort. The lightbulb has gone on for #9 Border War (12-1), as he’s won two in a row after starting his career 0-for-7. He’s run at least an 85 in four of his last five starts; the only time he didn’t was in his first start off a 13-month break. A well-timed ride might get it done. #3 Vax a Nation (3-1) came from well off the pace and just missed at this level last out. He’ll need a fast pace to run his best race, but there’s enough early speed in here that he should get what he wants.
RACE 8: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/8 MILES
2-4-7-5
#2 Hittheroadjak (6-1) ran huge first off a three-month layoff at Timonium last out, crushing Maryland-restricted foes with a 93, a career-best by 13 points. He ran a similarly improved effort two starts back, in his first outing in six months. He has plenty of untapped potential. #4 Brooklyn Guy (5-2) chased a very impressive Mosler Time at this level last out and ended up second with a career-best 87. He handled a class jump from conditioned claimers without much trouble in that spot, so he shouldn’t have many issues here, either. #7 Tiger Moon (7-2) consistently ran in the upper-80s and 90s in Kentucky last year, but went to the sidelines following a try at Keeneland in late October. He showed some slight improvement second off a nine-month layoff at Monmouth Park last out, and could be ready to turn his best work in this spot.
RACE 9: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W3X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS
2-8-4-3
#2 Miss Harriett (7-2) was scratched out of the Weather Vane Stakes a few days ago to run here. She found a favorable spot in the Miss Disco Stakes last out, and went gate-to-wire win an 85, her best figure in months. She sports a 4-for-6 record on this track, including a 4-for-5 record around one turn. She’s a threat to wire these and set herself up nicely for the Maryland Million Distaff. #8 Anonymously (8-1) has also enjoyed success here, with four wins in nine starts, and ran a solid second in her first start off a 3 1/2-month layoff. She should get a nice trip on the outside and will take advantage if Miss Harriett fades. #4 Beguine (2-1) is the classiest member of the field, having won the Alma North Stakes in impressive fashion on this track last summer. However, she finished double-digit lengths behind in each of her last two starts. She’s worked well at Delaware Park lately for Ned Allard, and looks primed for a return to her best form.
RACE 10: MAIDEN CLAIMING $20,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)
11-10-1-5 (DIRT: 2-11-14-5)
#11 Ariel Moon (9-5) crossed the wire first at Timonium last out in a sharp gate-to-wire performance, but was disqualified for interference. She’s run big figures in both of her grass starts this year against better, and drops to this level for the first time. #10 Thy Name Is Woman (10-1) showed more bunch than usual at Colonial last out and managed to get third in her first try against these types. She doesn’t always backing punch, but her best self has a say in this. #5 Glamorous (7-2) drops to this level for the first time first off a nearly three-month layoff, and should sit a good trip just off the pace. She converted a similar trip to a nose defeat two starts back.
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