Laurel Park picks and ponderings: September 28, 2024
In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…
Post time: 12:25 p.m.
Carryovers:
Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $1,660
Jackpot Super High 5 — $360
Late Pick 5 — $9,050
Check out our other handicapping here!
RACE 1: CLAIMING $45,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)
2-7-5-6 (DIRT: 3-10-4-1)
#2 Wellareyouhappynow (8-1) drops in for a tag for the first time after pressing the pace and fading against first-level rivals at Delaware Park last out. She ran back-to-back brisnet figures of 79 in her two previous grass starts on the season; that kind of form wins this race, as long as he forms transfers from two turns to one. #7 Runaround Slew (3-1) has done her best work around one turn this year, showing speed around one turn while showing steadily improving form. She’ll also benefit from a drop from first-level rivals. #5 Designer (6-1) went gate-to-wire to break her maiden second off a ten-month layoff last out, and should show speed while protecting inside position.
RACE 2: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 7 FURLONGS
4-3-2-9
#4 Bolt of Aurum (7-2) adds Lasix for his third start of the season. He just missed behind future stakes winner Copper Tax in last year’s James F. Lewis Stakes on this track, then ran credibly well against better in his first two races this year. #3 Play Like a Raven (8-1) got stuck behind slow fractions last out and proved no match, but should improve with more distance and a more honest setup. #2 Uncle Cat (3-1) got caught by the ever-tough Band Camp on the lead last out at Timonium, but has run consistently well at this level over the past year.
RACE 3: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/2 MILES (GRASS)
6-10-9-1 (DIRT: 7-5-1-2)
#6 The Jackal (9-5) has already competed at this distance twice this year. Both times, he made mild ground off of slow paces, but they were also against better rivals than these at Saratoga and Kentucky Downs. These should be easier to run down. #10 Smart Uncle (2-1) exits the same race as The Jackal at Kentucky, and led briefly before fading and settling for second in his second start off a three-month layoff. He should sit close to the pace and be in a prime spot to bounce. #9 Lorraine (8-1) ran a strong second going this distance first off a six-month break at Delaware last out, overhauling the early leader and holing second. She’ll have to improve a few points to contend with the best of The Jackal and Smart Uncle, but she’ll get her ideal setup, if nothing else.
RACE 4: MAIDEN CLAIMING $20,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)
10-11-1-14
#10 Easter Sunday Girl (6-1) returns to grass after her last try on the surface was washed out. She’s run no worse than a 68 in her three grass starts on the season, most recently earning a 71 with a strong late rally. #11 Learning to Fly (9-2) takes a double-drop from the $45,000 level for Keri Brion. She’s run in the upper-60s in her two route starts, although not a serious factor in either one. This field should be much more to her liking. #1 Dropping Lemons (8-1) sat close to the pace and held well until late last out, and should sit a nice trip just off the leaders on the rail.
RACE 5: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $20,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES
1-6-5-8
#1 Artistic Reason (8-5) has won three races in a row at three different tracks, two of them in gate-to-wire style. He’s facing a slightly easier field than usual at this condition and should be tough to catch. #6 Walk Away Joe (8-1) has tailed off a bit in his last two starts, but won going away against similar three races back at Delaware, and will be a factor if he can stay close to the pace. #5 Morning Thoughts (5-2) races first off the claim by Rick Sillaman and wheels back off of eight days’ rest. He won twice at this level during the summer meet, and looks for a rebound after tailing off in his last few races. His disappointing last try was at seven furlongs; a return to two turns might be what he needs.
RACE 6: SELIMA STAKES, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)
3-4-1-16 (DIRT: 9-6-14-15)
Today’s first stakes race is named after one of the foundation mares of the Thoroughbred breed. #3 Sweet Treasure (6-1) broke her maiden on debut last out, cruising on the lead to win at Indianapolis. She ran a very sharp 76 that day, and has plenty of room to improve off of that race. #4 Correto (3-1) also broke her maiden at first asking, sitting a great trip and winning going away at Kentucky. She’ll take advantage if Sweet Treasure falters on the pace. #1 Swan House (6-1) also comes in off a maiden-breaking score at Indianapolis. She improved dramatically in that second-asking win, running a 73 in contrast to the 61 she earned on debut. She runs the risk of getting caught in traffic in a gigantic field, but has a high ceiling.
RACE 7: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE
3-2-4-7
#3 Golden Charm (4-1) didn’t show much early speed last out at Colonial, and flattened out in the stretch. She tends to run much better going a mile or longer, so she should turn in an improved effort. #2 Give Me Kisses (8-1) finished 2 1/4 lengths clear of Golden Charm last out, in her second start off a five-month layoff. She improved four points from her first race off the bench to an 86, and has shown glimmers of promise in a heavily broken-up seven-race career. She might have the highest ceiling in this field. #4 Ginger Girl (6-1) saw her day end early in the Shine Again Stakes when she was bumped around at the start. She’s a perfect 3-for-3 around Laurel’s one-turn mile, and should show her best self with a clean break.
RACE 8: JAPAN TURF CUP, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/2 MILES (GRASS)
1-8-5-4 (DIRT: 2-10-1-9)
After three consecutive defeats in stakes company to begin his Monmouth Park season, #1 California Frolic (7-2) ended it on a strong note with a victory in the 1 1/2-mile Precious Passion Stakes, where he rated off the pace and wore down Sports Editor (who, especially as a Maryland-bred, would’ve been a good fit for this race). He’s one of three in here to win at this distance, and the only one to do so this year. Samuel Marin, who rode him to victory last out, comes from Jersey for the mount. #8 Dripping Gold (4-1) has been in career-best form lately, including a dominant stalk-and-pounce win at Kentucky last out. He might not get as nice a setup as he did that day, but he still has great tactical speed and should loom large on the final turn. #5 Dataman (2-1) has won a pair of stakes races this year and is undefeated on this grass course. He made solid late ground against better in the United Nations Stakes earlier this year, so an extra eighth of a mile shouldn’t be that much of an impediment.
RACE 9: LAUREL FUTURITY, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)
3-2-10-7 (DIRT: 8-13-12-1)
Graham Motion has them surrounded here, in my estimation; he trains my top two selections. #3 Academy (6-1) got caught wide every step on debut at Saratoga, then lasted on the lead to cross the wire first next out at Colonial. He was disqualified from first in that effort, but still improved nicely to a 78, the best two-turn figure earned by anyone in the field. #2 Soleil Volant (7-2) also has a two-turn win under his belt, as he lasted on the lead to win at Delaware in his grass debut. It’s not likely he’ll want to duel his stablemate, so look for one of them to go to the front and the other one to settle just of the lead. #10 Hard Circle (9-2) has a rough trip on debut at Kentucky, but still closed well and lost by a length He has every opportunity to take a step forward for the Mike Maker barn.
RACE 10: MAIDEN CLAIMING $45000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 FURLONGS
1-3-4-6
This looks like a two-horse race on paper, and will, in all likelihood, be bet accordingly. #1 Nothing But Heir (8-5) battled on the lead on debut with eventual winner Innova, and held off a slew of late challengers to grab second. Maddy Olver comes down for the mount and should send this one for speed. #3 Lil Sebastian (9-5) sat just off the pace, surged, and just missed in a blanket finish on debut at Timonium. He was ran the best of any first-time starter in that race. #4 Ecumenical (12-1) might be better-suited for longer distances, but has put in some good workouts for Hugh McMahon, and looks good enough to be third-best in this field.
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