Laurel Park picks and ponderings: October 3, 2024

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: 
Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $4,085
Jackpot Super High 5 — $733

Late Pick 5  $0

Check out our other handicapping here!

RACE 1: MAIDEN CLAIMING $12,500, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

2-3-7-8

#2 Up in Flames (7-2) chased a better field (including the promising Tony Eclipse) going a mile last out and faded badly. In his three starts at five furongs or less, he’s run a brisnet figure in the 60s every time. This spot is much more in his wheelhouse. #3 Flex Warrior (12-1) was well-bet on debut at Delaware Park, but didn’t want to go in the gate and didn’t do much running from there. If he behaves himself at the gate today, he should run an improved race. #7 Work for Peace (5-1) has a short but sweet worktab for Phil Capuano, who tends to do well with firsr-time starters. I’ll watch the board with him.

RACE 2: MAIDEN CLAIMING $45,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE

7-6-4-8

🎵 “Long as I remember, the rain been comin’ down…clouds of mystery pourin’, confusion on the ground…” 🎵 #7 Not Guilty (8-5), the lone main-track-only entry in the race, set the pace while wide and held third on dirt last out at Saratoga. Keri Brion doesn’t claim too many horses, but when she does, they tend to run well for her. #6 Intro (30-1) came from off the pace and grabbed second at Penn National last out. She’ll take advantage of the long one-turn mile stretch, and her figures are only a few points below the best of Not Guilty. #4 Dead Sexy (7-2) has good tactical speed, and ran some promising thirds on dirt to begin her career.

RACE 3: CLAIMING $12,500 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 7 FURLONGS

7-9-3-8

#7 Tooshay (8-1) cut back around one turn last out at Colonial Downs. It proved to be just what she needed, as she rallied from far off the pace and just missed by a neck. A repeat of that effort contends with these. #9 Iced Mocha (12-1) showed speed and backed up badly in her local debut, but hung in there on the lead in earlier races in Kentucky. She should improve with a race under her belt on this track. #3 Stormy Irish Lass (3-1) got up to break her maiden last out after a series of near-misses. Proponents of the “lightbulb” angle will be all over her.

RACE 4: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 1 MILE

12-3-15-14

#12 Julia’s a Fox (30-1) didn’t do much in her first two starts, but ran a much-improved second with a career-best 66 last out at Colonial. She gets the nod in a washed-off field without much established dirt form. #3 Social Love (8-1) has shown more late punch with each race, and finished second going two turns on grass last out at Delaware. She’ll be a serious threat if her form transfers over. #15 The Sugars (8-1) hasn’t gone beyond six furlongs, but has early speed, and could go a long way against these types.

RACE 5: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $30,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES

1-3-4-8

#1 Your Analysis (5-2) has the best late pace figurs in the race, and is prime for a rebound following flat try to cap his Monmouth Park season. Most of his recent races have been against better than these; his punch should get him home today. #3 Tops the Chart (10-1) makes his first start off a brief freshening for Ferris Allen. He tends to break awkwardly and lost early position, but at his best, he’s a threat to go gate-to-wire at a price. #4 American Law (3-1) ran in the 80s consistently all summer at Monmouth and raced first off the Dan Ward claim. While his last two-turn start wasn’t exceptional, he did run well going a mile or longer over the winter at Aqueduct.

RACE 6: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

6-10-5-11

#6 Smooth Flyin Mike (20-1) showed brief speed and faded going longer first off a 12-month layoff for Jane Cibelli last out. He won going six panels on this track prior to going on the shelf, and this looks like a prime spot for improvement second off the bench. #10 Coast Along (5-2) has won his last two races on grassN and ran a game second on the lead in his lone dirt try three starts back. He could get a nice trip on or just off the pace. #5 Easy Action (10-1) ran in the 90s consistently over the winter at Oaklawn Park, and improved sharply to an 88 second off a four-month layoff on the grass at Delaware last out.

RACE 7: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 7 FURLONGS

4-8-1-3

#4 Stickwiththecolors (5-1) ran some big races on this track earlier this year, but struggled at Timonium last out. A return to the big oval should help, and that last line will drive up her odds. #8 Planet Clare (9-5) closed for third behind slow fractions going longer last out with a career-best 90. She’s never gone this short, so while she might have the most ability in the race, she still might be a low price for a horse doing somewhere they’ve never done before. #1 Venomous Vixen (6-1) broke her maiden impressively on this track last year, and switches back to dirt after two average tries on grass to begin her 3-year-old season. She should go off at an excellent price by Brittany Russell trainee standards.

RACE 8: CLAIMING $45,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE

1-2-10-3

#1 Mister Agent (6-1) recovered nicely from a flat Timonium effort to get up and win in a determined effort last out, running his second-best figure ever, an 87. He’s a bit of a wild card going longer (he’s won at 1 1/16 miles, but his best figures have come in sprints), but his figures are right there with those of #2 Derbyness (7-5), and he’ll likely be a much better price. Derbyness makes his fourth start off a four-month break, and ran in the mid-80s consistently over the winter with solid late rallies. He’ll be a big factor with a pace to close into. #10 Italian Symphony (8-1) was disqualified from a victory against first-level foes last out after drifting out. He still ran well that day, coming from off a slow place and hanging in there going 1 1/8 miles. Today’s distance should be more to his liking.

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