Laurel Park picks and ponderings: October 4, 2024

In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: 
Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $0
Jackpot Super High 5 — $0

Late Pick 5  $0

Check out our other handicapping here!

RACE 1: CLAIMING $30,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

9-7-8-1

Thanks to rain earlier this week, plenty of cloud cover, and no wind, we’re still off the grass. The beat goes on. #9 Whatta World (6-1) makes her first appearance on dirt in just over a year. She ran a strong brisnet figure of 79 that day, getting pressed on the pace and holding third at Churchill Downs. She should enjoy the cutback in distance after going long at Monmouth Park last out. #7 Donate Life (15-1) broke her maiden at ninth asking against Virginia-restricted rivals last out at Colonial Downs in her second start off an eight-month layoff. She’s run respectable races on dirt before, including a near-miss on debut at Keeneland last April. #8 Marian Cross (5-1) makes her first start in the Lizzie Merryman barn, and turned in some solid efforts on the synthetic at Woodbine and Gulfstream Park. She should be sent for speed.

RACE 2: CLAIMING $30,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

2-3-5-4

#2 Lottie Deno (5-2) broke her maiden in dominant gate-to-wire fashion as the 1-5 chalk two starts back on this track, but faded after setting the pace at Timonium. She turned in a very sharp workout on September 15, going four furlongs in 46 3/5 seconds, the fastest of 78 workers that day. #3 Don’t Listen (7-2) ran big races against better earlier in the year at Aqueduct, but showed little in two starts this summer at Monmouth. She’s worked twice recently at Jorge Duarte’s Colts Neck Stable base, and is in a prime spot to rebound. #5 How Sweet She Is (9-2) has great late speed and should make a solid late impact here, in contrast to her recent races on the more speed-favoring Monmouth strip.

RACE 3: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

2-1-9-10

#2 Conquerthosewecan (9-5) went off as the slight favorite on debut at Colonial, and made solid ground late to get second. She has easily the best dirt form in this race, and must be respected. #1 Fontabelle (20-1) was claimed out of a flat debut by Horacio De Paz and has worked well since that effort, going three furlongs in 36 2/5 in the slop on Monday. She should take a step forward today. #9 Souper Amusing (5-2) improved drastically when switched to grass last out, finishing second in a game front-running effort. We’ll see if that progress was due to a surface switch or general improvement.

RACE 4: CLAIMING $30,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

10-1-2-3

#10 Nancy Made My Day (6-1) makes his second dirt start off the layoff. He ran some promising races against better earlier in the year, with a peak figure of 87, but has tailed off in his last few. A switch back to dirt and a drop in class on this surface might wake him up. #1 Unswayed (9-5) showed speed and faded last out at Delaware Park, but ran an 80 and a 77 in his two prior starts. Jorge Duarte gave him a freshening after that last early July effort, and it may work to his advantage. #2 Cybertime (10-1) went gate-to-wire on debut at Charles Town, and may prove tough to catch on the lead in his first start against winners.

RACE 5: CLAIMING $7,500 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE

7-1-2-3

#7 Pistol Liz Ablazen (7-5) picked up the pieces for fourth against better in her last start, running in the 80s for the second time in her last four starts. She could be at a disadvantage in a race without much pace, but if she runs her best race, that won’t matter much. #1 Bootsy’s Merlot (4-1) ran a career-best 82 after rating off the pace and kicking away last out at Delaware Park, by far a season’s-best mark. If she repeats it, she’ll be tough, but it’s such an outlier from the rest of her form, it’s hard to say if she can. #2 Six the Hard Way (10-1) finished third after a long stretch battle last out at Delaware, and won twice on that strip earlier this year, including an 80 first off a six-month layoff a few starts back.

RACE 6: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W1X), 2-YEAR-OLDS, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

12-4-10-8

#12 Fire Pit (8-1) showed speed and held on to win at second asking at Parx with a sharp 85. He returns to dirt here and adds blinkers. #4 Beau Ciel (6-1) also lasted through pace pressure to win going a mile at Delaware last out (albeit with a not-as-impressive 69), and now gets a big distance cutback for his first try in a dirt sprint. #10 Stormy Flight (3-1) stepped up at second asking and came from off the pace to break his maiden going away on grass. He has more pedigree for that surface, but should handle this field on dirt just fine.

RACE 7: CLAIMING $7,500 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE

1-6-5-4

#1 Running River (8-5) has run in the 80s three times in a row, the only one in the field to do so, and has blazing early speed that has propelled him to three wins and eight exacta finishes in 13 starts on this track. He’s not nominated for next Saturday’s Maryland Million Starter Handicap, but he’d certainly fit in if he was. #6 Caerus (15-1) sat the trip and got up to win at Timonium last out, as he continues his slow ascension since getting claimed by Hugh McMahon in February. He should outkick the rest if Running River runs away from them. #5 Supreme Dominance (5-1) goes first off the Kelly Breen claim. Take out his last line, where he was wide the whole way and didn’t fire, and his form fits in with these.

RACE 8: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

8-4-1-2

#8 Preparefortakeoff (30-1) sat on the pace and beat conditioned claimers easily last out, in her first start off a two-month break. She ran a 77 that day, the third time in her last four starts she’s run a 75. On paper, it’s a step up in class, but this is a subpar group for this level. #4 Union Suit (6-1) showed some promise on dirt as a 2-year-old last year, then ran a more-than-respectable 74 in her first start off a year-plus layoff. She’s shown improved form on grass since then, and could be interesting in this spot. #1 Heart (5-2) was impressive enough in her maiden-breaking score to go off as the favorite in the Xtra Heat Stakes next out. However, she raced wide on a rail-biased track and didn’t do much. She’s been in improving form on grass, and catches a fast track for the first time since her maiden win.

RACE 9: CLAIMING $12,500 (CONDITONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

6-4-2-3

#6 Remember Me (7-5) races first off the Anthony Farrior claim, and has sharp early speed. She should be tough to catch. #4 Cora’s Choice (4-1) took back off the pace last out, a contrast from her usual front-running style, and drew off to a sharp win with a career-best 75. She’ll take advantage if Remember Me falters. #2 Molly of Stratford (7-2) finished a flat fourth after an awkward break last out, but was in escalating form in this track prior to that race. She should also get a nice trip just off the pace.

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