Laurel Park picks and ponderings: October 6, 2024
In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…
Post time: 12:25 p.m.
Carryovers:
Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $0
Jackpot Super High 5 — $0
Late Pick 5 — $0
Check out our other handicapping here!
RACE 1: CLAIMING $20,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS
11-13-2-1
#11 Incinerator (5-2) ran brisnet figures in the 80s on dirt twice earlier this year in Florida, and has been in similarly sharp form on grass in his last few starts. He’s going first off the Kieron Magee claim. #13 Dunphy (6-1) won in gate-to-wire style last out, and is a major speed threat for the Jamie Ness/Jaime Rodriguez team. #2 Great Kisser (10-1) drops in class after getting caught up in a pace duel in her last start, and will try to protect position on the rail.
RACE 2: CLAIMING $12,500 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES
1-4-6-2
#1 Tres Maria’s Dream (4-5) showed heart on the lead and held on to win first off a ten-month layoff at Delaware Park last out. Her ceiling looks much higher than those of her rivals. #4 Flinny Tin Tin (6-1) cleared her non-winners of two condition with a gate-to-wire win at Timonium last out. She hasn’t run worse than a 68 in her last three starts going a mile or longer. #6 Minime (7-2) may be distance challenged, but she’s lightly-raxed and should get a nice trip just off the leaders.
RACE 3: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 5 1/2 FURLONGS
2-12-10-8
#2 Amy’s Music (2-1) improved sharply to an 82 at second asking last out at Colonial Downs. The rest of these would have to take giant steps forward to beat him. #12 Daring Venture (6-1) was a $275,000 yearling purchase for Hillwood Stable LLC, and now makes his debut for Brittany Russell. He’s been working well at Fair Hill lately, including two bullet drills in the past month. Another Hillwood-owned 2-year-old, Post Time, broke his maiden in an off-the-grass event two years ago tomorrow. #10 Night Preacher (8-1) held second after a wide trip on debut at Timonium. He should set the pace and hang around for a share here.
RACE 4: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 7 FURLONGS
1-6-5-4
if Amy’s Music wins race 3, it would boost the stock of #1 Stoney (8-5), who outfinished that rival by three lengths at first asking. He should set the pace and cruise in a race without much early speed. #6 Derz Smart (7-5) is the only first-timer in the field. He sold for $400,000 at auction last August, and has shown two strong recent gate workouts. I’ll watch the board with him. #5 Love Pack (3-1) closed well and just missed third at first asking at Colonial, and adds blinkers second time out for Graham Motion.
RACE 5: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $20,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS
5-11-1-2
#5 Backnthewoods (15-1) showed speed and held until late against better going seven furlongs last out. He ran an 85 that day, his best figure in several months. #11 Southern Horse (15-1) closed well and just missed third in his second start off a 16-month layoff last out. He should once again fly late. #1 One Whirlwind Ride (6-1) t bas tailed off a bit in his last few starts, but he ran as high as a 91 earlier this year, and now gets some class relief.
RACE 6: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $20,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS
1-5-2-3
#1 Group Hug (8-5) was no match foe the sharp Sheriff Ronnie last out, but rallied well late to grab second in hisbfirst start off the Jamie Ness claim. He’s run in the 80s in his last seven one-turn starts this year, right in the range he needs to be in to win. #5 Suga Steve (9-2) didn’t do too much on a wet track last out, or on the Timonium bullring two races ago, but should thrive on the big, fast track. #2 Laffite’s Fleet (15-1) never got settled and showed little last out, but ran some big races against better earlier this year.
RACE 7: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 MILE
10-11-1-12
#10 Too Many Kisses (10-1) matched her career-best mark with a 91 in her first start off a six-month layoff last out. Her closing style is well-suited for the one-turn mile. The last time she ran at this distance, she was second to future stakes winner Charming Way. #11 Overwish (8-5) was second in her first try against winners last out at Colonial despite acting up in the gate. She has lots of upside, but might get overbet due to the Repole/Russell factor. #1 Something Wicked (6-1) broke her maiden in professional style on dirt at Delaware two starts ago, and will likely sit in midpack and try to avoid getting too pace-compromised.
RACE 8: MAIDEN CLAIMING $12,500, 3, 4 AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 1 MILE
5-4-7-1
#5 Ifeelbadforyouson (9-2) showed speed for the first time last out, and improved 12 points to a 60. He should also benefit from a career-low class drop. #4 Valore (7-2) got involved in some traffic trouble last out, and ran in the 60s in his three prior race, right in the range he needs to be in to win this. #7 Villaluz (7-5) drops for a tag for the first time, and while he was flat first off the bench at Timonium last out, many of his races from over the winter win this.
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