Jockey Jaime Rodriguez completed another stellar season at Delaware Park last week, finishing the meet with 82 wins to lead all riders.

He also topped the standings in “wins above expectations,” which compares the number of wins a rider recorded to the number of wins his or her mounts would have recorded if they had done exactly as well as their takeout-adjusted odds predicted.

Rodriguez’s 82 victories were exactly 10 more than his mounts’ odds predicted. That gave him the advantage over nearest pursuer Gabriel Maldonado, who won 47 races, 8.7 more than expected. Apprentice Francisco Martinez was third In wins above expectations with 6.43, especially impressive given he had just 51 starts during the meet and 16 wins.

The rest of the top 10 included Yabriel Ramos (4.29), Julio Hernandez (3.68), Paul Angelo Luna Obregon (3.1), Pedro Cotto Jr. (3.0), Samy Camacho (2.07), Dexter Haddock (1.87), and Ruben Silvera (0.75).

In terms of wins above expectations per 50 starts – designed to allow comparisons among riders who rode vastly different numbers of races – Camacho, Ramos, and Martinez led the way, all with at least 6.3 wins above expectations per 50 starts.

Among riders with at least 100 starts at Delaware, Maldonado led in wins above expectations per 50 starts with 2.44. He was followed among the regulars by Rodriguez (1.87), Obregon (1.22), and Hernandez (0.52).

Similar statistics among trainers show the leaderboard far more compressed. In fact, the top 10 by total wins above expectations were separated by less than two total wins.

The leader for the meet was Juan Arriagada, whose 26 wins were 4.92 more than his odds would have predicted. That left him ahead of two others who exceeded expectations by at least four wins: Michael Simone, whose 18 wins were 4.38 more than expected, and Bruce Kravets (13 wins, 4.03 above expectations).

They were followed in the top 10 by Gary Capuano (3.85 wins above expectations), Graham Motion (3.67), Michael Stidham (3.56), Kerri Raven (3.48), Daniel Siculietano (3.29), Chuckie Lawrence (3.01), and Tim Kreiser (2.97).

In terms of wins above expectations per 25 starts, that metric skewed heavily towards trainers with relatively few starts. Kreiser (12 starts) led all trainers with 6.19 wins above expectations per 25 starts, followed by Raven (17 starts, 5.11) and Guadalupe Preciado (12, 3.24).

Among trainers with at least 50 starts at the meet, Kravets (4.03 total wins above expectations, 1.68 wins above expectations per 25 starts) led the group. He was followed by Stidham (1.53 per 25 starts), Simone (1.40), Arriagada (1.35), and Capuano (1.25).

LEADING RIDERS

The following riders won more races than their odds would have predicted

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