Laurel Park picks and ponderings: November 16, 2024
In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…
Post time: 12:25 p.m.
Carryovers:
Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $7,780
Jackpot Super High 5 — $1,544
Late Pick 5 — $0
Check out our other handicapping here!
RACE 1: CLAIMING $7,500 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/8 MILES
1-3-6-4
#1 Suigu Star (9-2) ran a brisnet figure of 79, his best mark in months, last out at this level. He has a great closing kick, but tends to be at the mercy of the pace. If he gets any kind of tempo to run into, he’s a serious late threat. #3 Tiz Speedy (6-1) won going away at Penn National last out, and now makes his first start for the T.J. Aguirre barn. He’s in prime position to get a great trip on the rail and repeat that big last effort. #6 Galatians (7-5) has faced better for most of the year, and makes his first start for a tag since April 7. He ran in the 80s for most of this year, which would likely win this race, but has tailed off a smidge as of late.
RACE 2: CLAIMING $20,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES
1-3-6-2
#1 Kick Startness (9-5) saw his four-race win streak snapped last out by stalemate Melt With You, who took advantage of a great stalking trip. This one couldn’t get his usual loose-on-the-lead trip going a one-turn mile last out, and tends to run better when he races around two turns. As such, he should thrive stretching back out. #3 Whathardmanfidead (9-2) closed well for second in his last two starts, almost chasing down the gate-to-wire winner. He might have to do a similar thing here, but he’s shown himself capable of at least coming close. #6 Run for Your Life (12-1) cleared his non-winners of two condition in his first start off the claim by Diane Morici. He took advantage of a pace meltdown that day, but he’s lightly-raced and could improve further third off a 16-month layoff.
RACE 3: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS
5-7-4-3
#5 Alani (9-5) has finished second in each of her four dirt starts, three times at odds-on or less. She made her second start off a seven-month break at Parx last out. That day, she set the pace, disposed of her early challenger, and pulled clear. However, she couldn’t hold off a New York shipper who sat a fantastic trip, and ended up beaten by a neck, 12 3/4 lengths clear of third place. Frankie Pennington, who usually doesn’t come here unless it’s a stakes race, has the mount, an encouraging sign. If it’s ever going to be the day for her, it might be this one. #7 Soundbite (6-1) switches back to dirt and cuts back around one turn. by far her two best races have come around one turn on dirt. She’ll take advantage if the two favorites both go for the lead and can’t last. #4 Phantasmical (8-5) returned to a consistent worktab in early July, and Graham Motion thought enough of her to send her to Keeneland for her first start off a 15-month break. She showed speed before fading, ultimately ending up sixth. I would have liked to have seen a workout since that October 25 outing, but she still has plenty of upside and should improve second off the layoff.
RACE 4: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS
2-5-7-8
#2 Addy’s Laddy T N T (6-1) got some time off over the summer, and dropped to the open $7,500 level in his return to the races. The plan worked well, as he sat just off the pace, opened up in the stretch, and held on for the victory. That was a perfect confidence-booster for his return to this condition. #5 Dark Timber (4-1) won going away at Parx last out, and now ships in for Jamie Ness. He won going away last out, but had previously been unable to sustain his speed in the Ness barn. We’ll see if he’s turned a corner, or if that last race was an aberration. #7 Pit Stop Man (3-1) was claimed by Kieron Magee out of a third-place effort in early July (where he outfinished Addy’s Laddy T N T), and now returns to the races after a few months off. His recent workouts have been very sharp, and he should be primed to put in a peak effort.
RACE 5: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE
5-8-2-3
#5 B West (2-1) has won his last two starts by open lengths, including an off-the-pace win first off a sick scratch last out. He hasn’t raced at a mile in a while, but he’s 3-for-5 at this distance. #8 Morning Thoughts (3-1) cruised to a gate-to-wire win last out, his third such victory at this level in his last six starts. He’ll have every opportunity to pull another wire job in this spot. #2 Fun Lovin Criminal (7-2) chased Morning Thoughts and got second last out. He’s won three times at this level or similar this year, and looks like an exotic threat with his usual trip.
RACE 6: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W1X), 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 FURLONGS
4-9-5-6
#4 It’s a Shore Thing set the pace and held on to break her maiden on debut last out. She looks fast enough to clear to the rail and the lead, despite some pace to her inside, and should take a step forward at second asking. #9 Christy My Love (4-1) broke her maiden in impressive style at second asking, showing sharp improvement in the process. She didn’t do much first time against winners on grass last out, but should benefit switching back to dirt. #5 Atlantis Queen (8-1) cuts back to six furlongs after a mild try going a mile last out. She broke her maiden with a pace-stalking trip at Delaware Park in mid-June, and looks prime to get a similar setup here. She’ll hope It’s a Shore Thing can’t clear and gets involved in a duel.
RACE 7: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS
5-9-2-1
Brittany Russell sends out a pair of second-time starters who look to have the rest surrounded. #5 Daring Venture (3-1), purchased for $275,000 by Ellen Charles last summer, didn’t want to go in the gate at first asking, but he certainly wanted to run. He made a strong move to the front on the far turn and was clear late, but got run down in the final few strides and finished second. #9 Dez Smart (5-2) competed one race later, and came from well off the pace to get second behind impressive maiden winner Stoney. He was a little cold on the board by Russell standards, going off at 7-2, but still ran well from off the pace. Both of them put in very impressive works on Sunday, going four furlongs in 48 seconds. That was the fastest of 66 times at the distance that morning. If you want to try and beat the Russell duo, #2 Yara’s Quest (9-2) might be the best hope. a $3300,000 purchase at Keeneland September last year, he’s been working well at Colts Neck Stable for Jorge Duarte, including a solid recent gate workout last Saturday. All five of his siblings to race are winners, including Moon Swag, a stakes winner at 2.
RACE 8: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, MD-RESTRICTED, 1 MILE
5-3-1-9
#5 Cover the Spread (7-2) has improved with each start since getting claimed by Jamie Ness in early September, and found the winner’s circle for the first time in a while last out, coming from off a slow pace to win on grass. She showed promise on dirt earlier in her career, and should handle a rather soft field on that surface. #3 Lovely Charm (3-1) came from well off the pace and closed for a share in each of her last few starts, and is likely to employ a similar strategy here. She’s a good horse to key in underneath spots. #1 Feelin So Lucky (6-1) goes first off the Gina Perri claim, and has shown a good late kick in each of her last two starts. J.G. Torrealba, who rode her to victory in each of her last two starts, got aboard.
RACE 9: MAIDEN CLAIMING $12,500, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS
5-10-1A-2
#5 Stormy Hollow (5-2) had a terrible debut, but improved dramatically at second asking. He rated off the pace, chased hope a well-bet, gate-to-wire winner, and ended up a clear-cut second with a relatively impressive 71. If he improves even a few more points, he’ll be long gone. #10 Bajan Boy (7-2) matched his career-best mark with a 70 last out, finishing third behind 1-5 favorite Beach Cowboy. He’ll hope not to get outkicked here and chase for a slice. #1A A B C Ya (6-1) cuts back to six furlongs after a mild try going a mile last out. He might’ve finished a clear-cut second had he found racing room; as it were, he missed by two lengths to next-out winner Ask Isaac.
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