This is the first of an occasional series in which The Racing Biz Maryland handicapper John Piassek will use a race from Laurel (or anotehr Maryland track) to dig deeper into solving the handicapping puzzle. Today’s top is maiden races.

Even experienced horseplayers may find themselves intimidated when confronted with a 2-year-old maiden race. These races often feature horses who have run only once or twice – or, in many cases, not at all.

The 6th race at Laurel Park on Friday, November 15 was illustrative. Of the ten runners, seven of them hadn’t raced before, and two others had made just one start. It’s difficult to draw conclusions about their ability with so little information at hand. What to do?

I look at several factors in 2-year-old maiden races:

• Experience. In my book, horses who have raced before, even if it’s only once or twice, have a big edge over first-time starters. Like with any activity, horses tend to get better at racing the more they do it and often show improvement second or third time out. If a horse has already shown promise, that helps their cause.
• Workouts. Each horse’s morning workouts are listed at the bottom of their past performance profile. The faster they go in the morning, the more likely it is they’ll go fast in the afternoon.
• Trainer statistics. Some trainers do better with first-time starters than others. If a horse is racing for a barn that tends to click with their debuters, that horse must be considered.
• Pedigree. Without much experience of their own to lean on, looking at the horse’s family can provide some clues. Is their sire a “win-early” type? Has the dam produced successful horses?
• Wagering patterns. If a horse, particularly a first-time starter, is getting heavy wagering action, it’s a promising sign. It suggests that the owner(s), trainer, and other folks who may have seen this horse in the morning like what they saw and consequently are backing it at the windows. Conversely, if a horse is “cold on the board,” or not receiving much action, that can be a negative. 

With these in mind, let’s dive in to Friday’s sixth.

HORSE BY HORSE ANALYSIS

1. Chickin Lickin (Trainer: Ollie Figgins III/Jockey: Denis Araujo, 30-1 morning line) This filly is one of three in the race with experience. She debuted on grass at Colonial Downs in July, and raced near the early pace before fading late and finishing sixth. She hasn’t raced since then, but has worked consistently over the past few weeks at Charles Town in West Virginia. Rather than race her there, Figgins decided to send her here, perhaps in pursuit of Maryland-bred bonus money or perhaps because there are relatively few opportunities for non-WV-breds at her home track. She was well-bet off her morning line, going as low as 7-1 and closing at 19-1. While her experience gives her a slight advantage over the first-time starters, she’ll still need to improve quite a bit to win this race. 

2. Happy Hour Joker (John Salzman Sr./Jaime Rodriguez, 5-1) Her name is a combination of her sire’s, the wildly popular Practical Joke, and her dam’s, stakes winner Happy Hour Honey. After one workout in mid-August, she went to the sidelines and did not return to the worktab until October 5. Her workouts since then have been solid and well-spaced, suggesting that she’s been aimed for this specific spot for a while. Jaime Rodriguez, one of the top jockeys in Maryland, was named on three different horses when the race was first drawn, but he chose to ride this filly. 

3. Mad for Maddy (Ned Allard/Mychel Sanchez, 10-1) Of the three horses in the field who have raced, Mad for Maddy has shown the best form, and is a prime example of what Andy Beyer refers to in his classic handicapping book Picking Winners as a ‘change of pace.’ In her debut, she pressed the pace and faded, losing by 14 lengths. In her second start, she was bumped at the start and fell far behind. However, she closed willingly in the stretch and passed several horses to finish second. The winner, Drink This Cup, sat a perfect trip off a speed duel and got a several-length jump start on Mad for Maddy, so considering the circumstances, she finished about as well as one could reasonably expect. She improved her Brisnet speed figure 20 points from her debut, going from a 54 to a 74. While Rodriguez was named on her and ultimately chose not to ride, she receives a more-than-capable replacement in Mychel Sanchez. She’s already proven she can run well, which, especially at a 10-1 morning line, makes her very appealing. She opened at 6-1 and ultimately closed at 8-1. 

4 Lift the Lid (Brittany Russell/Sheldon Russell, 2-1) No conversation about a 2-year-old race in Maryland can be had without acknowledging the dominance of Brittany Russell. Maryland’s leading trainer is especially potent with first-time starters. Going into this race, she’s 8-for-15 with debuters at the Laurel fall meet, and 13-for-15 in the money. 

However, this filly has a few question marks in terms of backing her at first asking. First, neither her sire, Audible, nor her damsire [maternal grandfather], Tiznow, are ‘win-early’ sires. Generally, their progeny take their time before showing their best. 

Second, she’s had a very long worktab. She started working in late July, but hasn’t raced until now. A worktab that’s that long isn’t always great because it suggests either some hiccups in training or a horse that’s struggling to figure it out. 

Third, she didn’t receive much early wagering action. While most Russell 2-year-olds are bet off the board, this one sat in the 6-1 to 8-1 range for most of the wagering, going down to 5-2 late. It’s possible people “in the know” simply waited until late to bet her, or that the public simply thought they were getting a bargain and drove her price down, but it’s still worth noting. Finally, Sheldon Russell was originally named to ride, but was substituted at the last minute for Jevian Toledo. The late change meant the filly did not get as much time to warm up as her rivals. 

5. Mega Mil (John Servis/Frankie Pennington, 9-2) Here’s another lightly-worked filly. While she’s only had three workouts since early October, her last two were particularly impressive. Both of them were bullet drills, meaning that they were the fastest workout at that distance that day. 

She’s shipping from Parx for John Servis, who doesn’t send too many horses here unless it’s a stakes race. Digging into the Parx condition book [an index of scheduled races over the next few weeks] reveals that there are no maiden races for 2-year-old fillies scheduled for a sprint distance until November 25. Is this filly so ready to run that Servis just can’t wait ten more days and has to race her here? If so, it’s very encouraging. It’s also encouraging to see Parx-based jockey Frankie Pennington come in for the mount. Her dam, Elusive Jackpot [another wordplay name] has foaled two other foals who made it to the races, and both of them won at 2. Her people and the public were enthusiastic; she was bet early and often and closed at 4-1. 

6. Stella E Veloce (Maxine Correa/Ederik Robles, 30-1) Her name means ‘fast star,’ and while she was fast on debut at Delaware [the same October 16 race Mad for Maddy exits], she wasn’t much of a star. She broke well, couldn’t clear to the rail and the lead, got caught up in a speed duel, and lost by 15 lengths. While it’s good to see a horse show speed in their first start, she’ll have to last quite a bit longer to have a chance in this race. 

7. Sabra’s Song SCRATCHED

8. Clare Court (Madison Meyers/Yomar Ortiz, 15-1) The lightest-worked horse in the race, she didn’t turn in a published workout until October 10, and has had only three others since then [including one two days before this race]. Interestingly, she was entered and scratched out of a softer spot on November 1, and now returns against tougher company. Might Meyers simply want to get a race into her? Rodriguez was also named on this filly, but hopped off. She received a bit of money that knocked her price from 40-1 to 25-1 at one point, but never drifted lower and went off at 44-1. 

9. Miss Collected (Susan Cooney/Xavier Perez, 8-1) She might be a nice filly in the long-term, but perhaps not today. Her dam, French Park, has produced eight winners, including graded-stakes winning Genre, but most of them [including Genre] did their best work as older horses. While Susan Cooney is a very capable horsewoman, she doesn’t excel with first-time starters. Since the start of 2015, she’s 4-for-120 with horses making their first start. The betting public wasn’t enthusiastic, either. She never went lower than 11-1 and closed at 14-1. 

10. Late Nite Call (Niall Saville/Forest Boyce, 15-1) She was bred by one of the top breeders in the Mid-Atlantic, Larry Johnson, and is a half-sister to two 2-year-old winners, Mr. Jefferson and Wait for Tomorrow. While Johnson often keeps his fillies as potential broodmare prospects, he chose to sell this one at auction as a yearling. She was purchased for $25,000 by Richard Harris, and has put in solid workouts at Delaware for Saville since early September. She received plenty of early wagering action, opening at 7-2, but ultimately floating up to 14-1. Her overall profile is pretty mixed.

11. Ms Notion (Phil Capuano/Tais Lyapustina, 8-1) This filly has so much Maryland in her, you might expect her to leave a trail of Old Bay in her wake. She was bred by Maryland’s perennial leading breeders, Tom and Chris Bowman, and is by Maryland’s top sire, Great Notion. Her second dam [grandmother], Gin Talking, was a two-time Maryland-bred champion, and a three-time stakes winner at 2; and her descendants include graded stakes winners Done Talking and Swayin to and Fro. Ms Notion’s siblings have generally excelled as 2-year-olds, and Great Notion is a win-early stallion. Furthermore, she sold for $52,000 at auction last year to Mopo Racing, a very high price for an offspring of Great Notion. She’s not without downsides; she’s also had a very long worktab [on and off since late June], trainer Phil Capuano hasn’t won with a first-time starter this year, and her far outside draw makes her more susceptible to a tough trip. That can be especially cumbersome for a horse who hasn’t raced before.

However, the wagering action Ms. Notion had to make one perk up. She was one of the lowest-priced horses in the rolling double and rolling pick 3 will-pays, and opened as the 5-2 favorite. She received steady action throughout the wagering, and closed at 2-1. All the wagering action, coupled with her aforementioned virtues, make Ms Notion a very strong contender in this race.

CONCLUSIONS

Of the three horses with experience, Mad for Maddy looks the best by far. She’s the only one of the three to finish in the top three and the only one to run a speed figure near the par for this class, and she’s shown the ability to show speed or come from off the pace. 8-1 is a fantastic price.

Among the first-time starters, Lift the Lid looked like the best on paper, but the lack of early wagering action is cause for pause. Mega Mil and Ms Notion, the other two notable firsters, look like the better bets. 

RESULTS

The money proved to be correct on Ms Notion. She sat in second place early on, while Mega Mil went out and sent the early pace by herself. On the turn, Ms Notion took over and drew off to win by four lengths, paying $7.20 to win. Mega Mil held on for second to complete an exacta which paid $23.20 for a buck. Lift the Lid raced evenly in the stretch and finished third, while Mad for Maddy and Chickin Lickin finished in a dead heat for fourth.

In this instance, the best horses in the field were identified through a combination of analysis of pedigrees, workouts, trainer intentions, and wagering action. Betting 2-year-old maiden races can require a deeper dive than the average race, but the rewards often make it worthwhile.

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