Laurel Park picks and ponderings: November 30, 2024
In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…
Post time: 12:25 p.m.
Carryovers:
Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $1,408
Jackpot Super High 5 — $5,084
Late Pick 5 — $0
Check out our other handicapping here!
RACE 1: MAIDEN CLAIMING $30,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 1 MILE
9-13-6-1
#9 Magical Mondays (6-1) battled in the stretch and finished second on debut going long on grass. He’s shown the best longer-distance form of anyone in the race; as long as he handles dirt, he’ll be tough to beat. #13 Wilding Lane (3-1) was well-bet on in his debut on grass, but had a rough trip and ended up closing well late for fifth. He catches a fairly easy field for his dirt debut, albeit not as easy as the one he would’ve seen last Saturday had the card not been cancelled, and looks like a serious threat despite his tough draw. #6 Daddy Yankee (5-2) closed well for third despite a wide trip last out, which was his first start beyond 4 1/2 furlongs and his first start off a five-month layoff. He takes a drop in class and stretches out a furlong for his second start off the break; any of his three starts contend with these.
RACE 2: CLAIMING $7,500 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS
6-14-9-15
#6 Monster Mason (5-1) has held his own against better for most of the year, showing improving form in his last few starts. He made solid ground in his last dirt try, which came on an off-track in late September, and finished third to Rad Paisley and Outkissed, both of whom are better than anyone he’ll have to deal with here. He gets the slight nod in a bunch that’s difficult to decipher. #14 Pit Stop Man (2-1) was entered and scratched from a better field two Saturdays ago, and now returns here. He ran brisnet figures in the 80s four times in a row before gong to the sidelines in early July. He’ll need two scratches to draw in here, but if he gets them he’ll be tough. #9 Brazillionaire (3-1) chased and held fourth last out at Aqueduct, but hasn’t raced since that late June effort, and only once in the past 8 3/4 months. This one has back-class, and has worked well recently for Mario Serey. He’ll be a threat if he can rediscover that form.
RACE 3: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS
1-5-8-4
#1 Don’t Wait Up (1-1) sat the trip and got up to beat a second-level field last out, running in the 90s for the third consecutive race. This field is a bit tougher than the one he saw that afternoon, but his tactical speed will serve him well regardless. #5 Take a Hint (3-1) ran into some nice horses in his first two starts off a four-month layoff, then led most of the way and got caught in the last few strides third off the layoff. He’s sure to go straight to the front and last as long as he can. You figure he’ll either go gate-to-wire or get nailed by Don’t Wait Up and finish second. #8 Mr. Antonelli (8-1) tends to loom large and flatten out late, but should be able to hang around for a small share behind the aforementioned two.
RACE 4: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES
1A-5-2-4
#1A Dream Chaser (8-1) will need a scratch to draw in, but looks like the superior half of the Jamie Ness-trained entry. She took two in a row in Pennsylvania, running career-top figures in both of those races. Her outside draw doesn’t do her many favors, but her stalking style will give her the opportunity to work out a trip just off the pace. Her entrymate, Im Gittin There, does not look like a serious factor, beyond the respect automatically given to Ness trainees. #5 Sandra D (8-1) went gate-to-wire against softer twice over the summer, and there isn’t much speed in the race. If Dream Chaser does not draw in, she could find herself with an especially easy trip. #2 I Can Run (8-1) won at this level two races ago, albeit in an off-the-grass affair, and has great late speed. Even a moderate tempo would help her cause.
RACE 5: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, MD-RESTRICTED, 5 1/2 FURLONGS
3-8-1-7
#3 Doc Linkous (7-2) hasn’t done anything wrong in his three career races. He won two of them going away, and lost the other one to Celtic Contender, who won the Maryland Million Sprint in his next outing. This one should be able to make the lead and the rail with a clean beginning, and from there, he’ll be tough to catch. #8 Haileysfirstnotion (5-1) showed promise in his first two starts, winning them by a combined seven lengths after lasting through speed duels. However, he tired in the Star de Naskra Stakes and finished up the track, and has not been seen since that race. His recent workouts have been very sharp, including three bullet drills since early October. While Doc Linkous is a hard rival to run into first off the bench, he has lots of upside and cannot be disregarded. #1 My Mamba (15-1) showed little going a mile last out, but if you draw a line through that race, you’ll see that his recent sprint figures fit in with those of the other contenders. That poor last line might drive up his odds.
RACE 6: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE
7-6-5-10
#7 Hittheroadjak (5-2) was the steam horse going into the Maryland Million Classic, and certainly did not disgrace himself, finishing fourth while matching his career-best 93. This lightly-raced gelding looks tailor-made for this spot. #6 War Master (4-1) has rattled off three wins in a row, coming from off the pace to win all of them going away. He hasn’t faced a field this strong before, but he’s in improving form, and has a good shot with the right setup. #5 Vax a Nation (7-2) loves coming in second. Since the start of 2023, he’s been the runner-up nine times, but has only won three times in that stretch. One of them was against maiden claimers, one was in an off-the-grass five-horse field, and the other was in a dead heat. Still, he’s in career-best form right now and has great late speed, which should play well down the long one-mile stretch. I don’t know if he’ll win, but he’s a great type to key underneath in an exacta or trifecta.
RACE 7: SAFELY KEPT STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 7 FURLONGS
2-3-4-1
Safely Kept was a legendary Maryland-bred and Maryland-sired sprinter, so it’s apropos that I picked #2 Sheilahs Warcloud (6-1) on top. She finished a strong-closing second in her third start off the layoff i the Maryland Million Distaff. The winner, Foxy Junior, won the Thirty Eight Go Go Stakes in her next start. This one’s closing style hasn’t been an impediment so far in her career, and while this is the toughest field she’s ever faced, she looks more than capable of getting the job done. #3 Dazzling Move (2-1) beat older rivals going away two starts back, with a career-best 93, then finishing second in the Pumpkin Pie Stakes next out at Aqueduct. She’ll show good tactical speed and get the jump on Sheilahs Warcloud. #4 Ronan Goddess (10-1) also has great late speed, coming from further off the pace than usual to grab third in the Weather Vane Stakes last out. She’s a three-time winner on this track, including the Xtra Heat Stakes in late January.
RACE 8: CITY OF LAUREL STAKES, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 7 FURLONGS
9-8-6-4
#9 Speedyness (3-1) ran huge first off a six-month layoff last out, leading for every step to beat a third-level field of older horses at 1 1/16 miles. He’s won or placed in stakes company three times on this track, and while he might want more distance than this, he has the potential to easily clear to the rail and the lead and run off them off their feet. #8 Celtic Contender (6-1) got the job done in the Maryland Million Sprint last out, holding off the late rally of Band Camp despite wandering. He was scratched out of a second-level spot a few weeks ago, and turned in a bullet four-furlong drill two days later. He looks like he’s been well-primed for this specific spot, and has a great middle punch with a high ceiling. Even if Speedyness scampers clear of the others, this one should get up over the others. #6 Love Me Tender (5-2) outran his 58-1 mutuel in the Perryville Stakes last out, losing by less than three lengths after a wide trip. He won his first two starts against soft rivals at Colonial Downs by a combined 9 1/4 lengths. He hasn’t turned in a bad effort yet, but he’s still lightly-raced and will likely go off at a depressed number.
RACE 9: MAIDEN CLAIMING $45,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 FURLONGS
3-1-4-2
#3 Silver Trinket (3-1) was well-bet in her first two starts, but did not deliver on her promise either time. While she showed speed and held second at first asking, she was less impressive second time out. While she dealt with a bit of traffic on the turn, she found clear sailing as they approached the stretch, but could not kick on and ended up well-beaten. Brittany Russell gave her a month off from the worktab, and has put in three drills since the end of her brief vacation. She gets blinkers off and her third different rider in three races in Victor Carrasco. If you still believe, the price should be better. #1 Drink Deeply (8-1) has made just one dirt start in five trips to the track. In that race two starts back, she opened up a clear lead going a mile, but got caught late by well-bet Russell first Gotanothathingcomn. We’ll see how she does first time in a dirt sprint, but that effort gives reason to believe. #4 Sabra’s Song (6-1) was scratched out of a tougher maiden spot two Fridays ago. (the same one profiled here) in favor of this race (she’s still not in for a tag by virtue of being a Maryland-bred). Her recent workouts have been sharp, and the John Salzman Jr. barn is known for expertise with young horses. Watch the board on her.
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