Laurel Park picks and ponderings: December 15, 2024
In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…
Post time: 12:25 p.m.
Carryovers:
Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $5,943
Jackpot Super High 5 — $1,814
Late Pick 5 — $7,763
Check out our other handicapping here!
RACE 1: CLAIMING $30,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 7 FURLONGS
2-6-8-5
#2 Photo Finish (9-2) ran a game race to win at this level gate-to-wire three starts back, then ran a similarly game race when dropped back to this condition last out. She fought hard on the lead and finished second, 1 3/4 lengths clear of her dueling partner. She’ll make the rail and the lead with a clean start, and has shown she can withstand pace pressure. #6 I’m a Cutie Pie (5-2) has in-and-out form, but her best race contends with these. She pressed the pace and held second going a mile against gems of a slightly lesser water last out. #8 Conquest Dance (15-1) is lightly-raced with consistently solid form, including a pace-chasing third against slightly softer last out. Her best is a touch below that of the top two, but she can shake up the exotics at a good price.
RACE 2: MAIDEN CLAIMING $12,500, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS
5-2-3-1
Jerry Robb has two of the seven runners in here. His top rider, Xavier Perez, gets the call on #5 Ride to Remember (3-1) , who battled on the lead at second asking and just missed third, improving her brisnet figure ten points to a 61. I’ll give her the nod over fellow Robb trainee #3 Golden Girl Lena (7-2), who edged her stablemate for fourth last out, but could not take advantage that duel and didn’t move forward as much. #2 Bella Creed (12-1) recovered from an awkward break to finish a strong-closing second at Charles Town last out, and looks primed to take another step forward, especially with a clean getaway.
RACE 3: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $20,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS
3-5-6-2
#3 Magic Spin (8-5) has won four of his last five on dirt, with his only defeat going when he stopped badly against the likes of Band Camp. Something may have been amiss with him that day, as he went to the sidelines after that effort and did not return for two months. He was claimed out of his last win by Kieron Magee, and while he hasn’t raced since early October, he’s worked well since. #5 Whiskey and You (10-1) has faced much better for most of the year. He dropped to better starter optional claiming rivals last out, got burned up when (uncharacteristically) trying for the early lead, and faded. A further class drop and a better trip should be a good combination. #6 Group Hug (9-5) was no factor at a two-turn mile last out, but will improve on the return from Parx for the Jamie Ness/Jaime Rodriguez duo.
RACE 4: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $30,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS
2-7-1-3
With eight races on the card, this race starts the late pick 5, with the carryover. #2 Brzina (8-5) is a likely single on many tickets, having won three of her last four races in very sharp gate-to-wire fashion. She’ll have to deal with some speed to her outside in Empress Deona, but she’ll have rail position, and she’s shown she can last through pace pressure. #7 Deeds of Love (3-1) has been no factor against better in her last few starts, but her recent figures fit in with those at this condition. #1 Matittude (7-2) has also been outclassed as of late, but won her last two starts at this condition earlier this year, doing so in gate-to-wire fashion. It’s possible her recent exploits have squeezed her lemon a little too much, but she should also wake up on the class drop.
RACE 5: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS
4-7-3-5
#4 Alias (6-5) was well-beaten on debut at Aqueduct, finishing second to the impressive Vekoma Rides, who returned to finish second in the Nashua Stakes next out. This one held on for second with a sharp 82, and now makes his first start for Brittany Russell after joining her barn in mid-November. #7 Change My Worl (4-1) outran his 30-1 odds on debut, rallying for third after getting in traffic trouble at the top of the stretch. He’s worked well since then and should improve. #3 Smuggler’s Gold (9-2) was fourth behind Change my World last out, and should improve third off a brief layoff and with the addition of blinkers.
RACE 6: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE
1A-2-5-10
Both halves of the Jamie Ness entry look dominant. I lean towards #1A Just Call Ray (3-1), who led and just missed at this level two starts back. He’s run in the 90s in four of his last six starts, and considering this is a bit of a softer field than usual for this condition, he’ll be tough if he runs his race. #2 Mindtap (5-1) showed a lot of promise over the winter, with back-to-back open-length victories between here and Parx, but he railed off as the winter went on and went to the sidelines. He came back to the worktab in September and has been consistently solid in the morning as of late. He’s found a fairly easy spot for his comeback. #5 Your Analysis (7-2) surged ad just missed last out, continuing his trend throughout this year. Look for him to sit off the pace and hang around for share.
RACE 7: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, MD-RESTRICTED, 6 FURLONGS
7-1-4-3
#7 Full Irish (8-5) looked like a budding star over the winter, with a pair of dominant victories. He won in gate-to-wire style second off a 7 1/2-month layoff last out, and steps back up into allowance company following two tries against conditioned claimers. #1 Intrepid’s Legacy (7-2) was well-regarded last out in spite of an impossible draw, but never got seriously involved after a wide trip. He’ll be much sharper with a better post. #4 S S Sinatra (3-1) exits the same race as Intrepid’s Legacy, where he was second after getting in some traffic trouble. He’s had a solid year since coming off a 12 1/2-month layoff in June, and should be close to the pace.
RACE 8: CLAIMING $20,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES
1-3-5-6
#1 Master Munnings (2-1) goes first off the Jamie Ness claim and is the lightest-raced horse in a camera-shy field, having raced six times and losing only once against winners. He hasn’t raced on dirt yet, but he’ll win easy if he takes to the surface. #3 Vilaluz (10-1) has run in the 80s three times in a row, including in his sharp maiden-breaking win three starts go, and should benefit from going back around two turns. #5 Secret Treasure (4-1) showed decent punch off mild paces at Presque Isle Downs over the summer, and will be threat if he stays close to the lead. This will be his first start for the Mike Trombetta barn.
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