Laurel Park picks and ponderings: December 20, 2024
In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…
Post time: 12:25 p.m.
Carryovers:
Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $6,680
Jackpot Super High 5 — $2,102
Late Pick 5 — $0
Check out our other handicapping here!
RACE 1: CLAIMING $12,500 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE
2-6-5-1
#2 Not So Holy (8-5) absolutely destroyed a maiden claiming field at Keeneland two starts ago, then ran a game second as the 1-10 choice last out at Mountaineer. While he’s never run beyond 6 1/2 furlongs, he’s facing a pretty easy field here, so if he can handle the extra distance, he’ll crush. #6 Last Second Louie (2-1) has an unsightly 1-for-27 career record, but has finished second three times in his last four starts at this condition. He’s a good bet to round out a chalky exacta behind Not So Holy. #5 Whiskey Row (5-1) is fairly lightly-raced and has shown improved form in his last few starts at Woodbine.
RACE 2: CLAIMING $12,500 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS
2-7-3-5
#2 Lottie Deno (7-5) has shown tenacity after getting collared on the early pace in her last few starts. There’s speed to her inside, but she’s far classier than that rival, so she should brush her off and draw away to a short-priced score. #7 Princess Lucia (8-1) made her dirt debut last out, and overcame a very wide trip to grab third against similar. Despite another outside draw, she should be able to save more ground with the smaller field, and could pick up the pieces if Lottie Deno is sufficiently weakened early. #3 Ariel Moon (8-5) finally broke through to win at 11th asking last out, after a string of short-priced defeats. She’ll also sit on or near the early tempo.
RACE 3: CLAIMING $20,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 FURLONGS
8-5-2-6
#8 Ade (5-2) broke her maiden impressively two starts ago with a stalk-and-pounce trip, and now gets class relief after a try in the Maryland Juvenile Filly Stakes last out. She tailed off a bit in the fall after a promising start to her career, but it looks like she’s rounded back to her best self. #5 First Pearl (4-1) just missed as the 2-5 choice against similar last out at Delaware Park; you’ll get a much better price today if you still believe. While she hasn’t raced since that October 2 effort, she has worked well in the interim. #2 Golden Philly (3-1) broke her maiden by 13 lengths at Parx last out. She ran a brisnet figure of 79 that day, 13 points better than her next-best figure. Has she legitimately taken that big a leap forward, or is it just an outlier?
RACE 4: CLAIMING $20,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS
5-6-4-3
#5 Bustino Santino (7-5) broke his maiden at 14th asking in impressive gate-to-wire style at Finger Lakes last out, and now makes his first start for the Jamie Ness contingent. He should break on top and not get caught. #6 Uniwinner (3-1) drops in class and and adds blinkers third off the bench. He didn’t do much after a wide trip last out, but showed promise earlier this year, and could wake up against these types. #4 True Faith (6-1) relished a class drop last out at Monmouth Park. After losing his previous three starts by a combined 82 lengths, he battled on the pace and drew off to beat $12,500 maiden claimers with a career-best 80. He turned in a sharp four-furlong drill last Friday, and looks primed for his first start against winners.
RACE 5: CLAIMING $7,500 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS
3-6-2-12
#3 Baby Sox (4-1) faded after getting caught wide last out at Charles Town, always a nightmare scenario, but she’s run in the 70s in each of her last three tries on this track. Her consistency gives her the nod in this group. #6 Lady Serenity (3-1) has faded after showing some speed in her last few starts, but she’s been facing better throughout the year. She should hang around for longer against these. #2 Bad Temper (6-1) also consistently runs in the 70s on this oval, and takes a slight class drop after a respectable fourth-place effort against better.
RACE 6: CLAIMING $12,500 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS
8-3-13-9
#8 Minister for Magic (7-2) was second in each of his last three starts against better, losing to the likes of Suga Steve and Paco the Taco Man, both of whom are much better than anyone in this field. He’s the only one in the field to run in the 80s in each of his last three starts. #3 Vagabond Shoes (6-1) ran a career-best 84 after showing speed and fading last out, and now makes his first start since that late March effort. He’ll be able to make the rail and the lead; it’s just a matter of how long he can last. #13 Win No Joke (6-1) delivered as the even-money favorite against non-winners of two foes last out, and now makes his first start at this condition. He has great late pace figures, and will be a threat if he can steer clear of traffic.
RACE 7: MAIDEN CLAIMING $12,500, 2-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS
1-4-2-6
#1 World on Fire (4-1) has taken big step forward with each start, running a career-best 64 when fifth in his first try at this level. He looks like he’s rounding into his best form at the right time. #4 Enabler (6-1) faded after a wide trip first off a seven-month break last out. He ran a 60 on debut in early May; if he can improve off that form, he’ll be very interesting at a decent number. #2 Bright Charger (9-5) fought hard and just missed last out, losing by a neck while outfinishing World on Fire by three lengths. He always shows speed, but hasn’t yet shown the needed stamina to hang around.
RACE 8: CLAIMING $40,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 1 MILE
3-5-4-6
#3 Lightning Boss (2-1) was hounded on the lead every step on debut, but held on to win with a very respectable 74. He’ll have to deal with some speed to his inside, but he’s shown he can handle it. #5 All the Hardways (3-1) ran at least a 77 in his first five starts, and gets some class relief after tailing off in his last few starts. We’ll see if the drop to claimers from first-level foes will wake him up. #4 Set for Life (10-1) broke his maiden with a great stalk-and-pounce trip last out, and has improved sharply in his last few races. He’ll get a great setup just off the pace, and could surprise with a little bit more improvement.
RACE 9: MAIDEN CLAIMING $12,500, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES
6-7-8-3
#6 Lachicafortequila (7-5) has run at least a 61 in each of her last three starts, something the rest of these struggle to do at all. Her best races have come going shorter, but she a respectable fourth at a mile two starts ago. It’s not like anyone else in the field is proven at this distance, either. #7 A Lotta Moxie (8-5) has a ceiling slightly below that of Lachicafortequila. She’s shown both good early and late speed (albeit not at the same time); we’ll see which strategy J.G. Torrealba employs here. #8 Lystra (15-1) makes her third start and takes a career-low drop in class. She ran a solid 58 on debut, showed nothing next out, and could wake up a bit and round out the exotics at a good price.
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