Charles Town Races kicked off its 160-day 2025 racing schedule Thursday evening with an eight-race program Thursday evening.

Racing continues Friday and Saturday with eight-race cards both days. Post time is 7:00 p.m.

With the new year upon us, we took a minute to look over last year’s statistics with an eye towards answering this question: which trainers and jockeys were the most bettable in 2024?

Before getting there, though, we had to decide what bettability looks like. In other words, what makes a trainer or jock playable?

We settled on two factors for this purpose: percentage of purse money earned and how frequently s/he wins versus what their odds would predict, or “wins above expectations.” Percentage of purse money earned lets you know how often the person’s horses are in the hunt, while wins above expectations gives you a sense of whether his or her horses outrun their odds.

Why not use ROI (return on wagering investment)? We believe the two measures above are more replicable, that is, more likely to be representative of how trainer or jockey’s horses will perform going forward. ROI, especially in small sample sizes, is subject to a lot of noise; a single 100-1 winner, for example, could massively impact a person’s ROI for quite a while, even though it’s unlikely to be replicated.

In these ratings, we considered only trainers who had sent out at least 40 starters at Charles Town in 2024 and riders who had 50 or more mounts. One thing you’ll note: every rider and trainer in the top grouping won more races than their odds would have predicted.

So, then, without further ado…

WHICH JOCKEYS WERE BETTABLE?

In limited action, jockey Grant Whitacre won over 20% of his races (and over 18% of available purse money) while recording 2.38 wins per 50 starts above expectations, the second highest rate of any rider on the grounds.

All told, that made him the most bettable of local riders.

Megan Reap, with 2.53 wins above expectations per 50 starts, led all riders in that area, while Arnaldo Bocachica, who earned nearly 25% of available purse moneys in the races he rode, led that category.

Below are the top 10 (with ties) of 36 qualifying riders.

It’s notable that Arnaldo Bocachica, yet again the leading rider, is not the leader in bettability, coming in sixth with a 67 rating. Though he wins a lot and at a high percentage, the betting public bets his mounts heavily. Though he nevertheless wins more often than expected, his approximately 3 wins above expectations in 592 starts translates to a middling 0.25 wins above expectations per 50 starts.

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