In which we pick the races from Laurel Park each day…

Post time: 12:25 p.m.

Carryovers: 
Chesapeake Jackpot Pick 6 — $735
Jackpot Super High 5 — $4,244
Late Pick 5 — $0

Check out our other handicapping here!

RACE 1: CLAIMING $7,500 (CONDITIONED), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES

7-5-6-1

After a two-week respite, we’re back in action with a 9-race program. Looking forward to the new year and the new meet. #7 Lisa’s Palace (8-1) made a strong move to just miss second off the layoff last out at Penn National. She has good tactical speed, and should rate just off the pace in a race without a ton of early speed. #5 Looking for Water (2-1) closed for second behind the very tough Don’t Tell Deren in the 2024 finale. Her total lack of early speed might lave her at a disadvantage if the pace is very soft, but she has by far the best late pace figures in the race, and should at least rally for a share. #6 Carroll Girl (9-5) battled on the pace last out in a race which featured 1-10 favorite Pistol Liz Ablazen. Unsurprisingly, Carroll Girl stopped badly. She now takes a big drop in class from starter optional claiming rivals and will have a significantly easier time on the front end.

RACE 2: CLAIMING $12,500 (N/W2L), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

5-7-2-10

#5 Red Head Italian (4-1) broke her maiden in a gate-to-wire laugher two races back, with an impressive brisnet figure of 86. She was well-bet in her first try against winners at Penn National last out, but got involved in a three-way speed duel and was well-beaten (one of the duelers was a strongly-supported Churchill Downs shipper who won easily; the other dueling partner also finished up the track). She’s now dropping against non-winners of two rivals for the first time, and looks like a serious speed threat for the ever-dangerous Brittany Russell/Sheldon Russell duo. #7 Bond’s Belle (8-1) is one of two in here who hasn’t lost against winners. She sat the trip and won going away as the chalk at seventh asking last out, running in the 70s for the fourth time in her last five races. #2 Joyful Kitten (6-1) came from off the pace and grabbed second behind 1-5 chalk Lottie Deno last out, running a career-best 72 in the process. She’ll have something to say late with clear sailing.

RACE 3: MAIDEN CLAIMING $45,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 6 FURLONGS

3-6-7-2

Let’s try another Brittany Russell horse on top. #3 Silver Trinket (2-1) has been well-supported in each of her three career starts, and just missed with a strong move up the rail at this condition last out. Sheldon Russell gets aboard here – this filly’s fourth rider in as many races – and this looks like a field she should master. #6 Poor Mans Lady (8-1) was visually flat in her first two starts, but she ran in the low/mid-60s both times while showing late speed. She now finds herself in a race with plenty of speed-and-fade types. #7 She’s No Uncle (3-1) looks like the best of the four first-time starters in here, having shown plenty of life in the morning for the astute Cal Lynch barn. She’s the second choice on the morning line; it’s worth watching the board on her.

RACE 4: CLAIMING $7,500, 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

8-5-7-1

#5 B West (8-5) has been extremely sharp going a sprint distance over the past year. He’s run at least an 82 in his last six tries at six or seven furlongs, including wins at this level and better in recent races. The only one in the field who can come consistently close to those marks is #7 Rad Paisley (2-1), who has blistering early speed. I’m a tad suspicious of both of them, considering they could’ve run in race 5 at the level they’ve been racing at, but instead decided to go in a softer spot where they’re more at risk of being claimed. In Rad Paisley’s case, he was claimed for $12,500 last out, and now is for $7,500. While both must be respected, I’ll take a shot with #8 Cactus (6-1). He beat conditioned foes for this claiming price two starts ago with an 85, his best figure in ten months. He has plenty of backclass, being stakes-placed as a 3-year-old, and it looks like he’s finding his best self again after spending a while in the wilderness.

RACE 5: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $12,500, 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 7 FURLONGS

4-11-10-9

Note that both of my top two picks, #4 Monday Morning Qb (8-5) and #11 Everett’s Song (7-2), are cross-entered for tomorrow. Monday Morning Qb has won three of his last four starts against better, running at least an 87 every time. While it’s a precipitous class drop at first glance, there’s no starter optional claiming 30,000 races in the book for a while, so it looks like Kieron Magee just wants to get a race into him. Everett’s Song made his first start off a year-plus layoff for a 7,500 tag last out. He won easily, didn’t get claimed, and now gets to run in here without being risked. He has loads of backclass, and further improvement second off the bench would lead to victory. #10 Dolice Vita (10-1) faced better for most of last year, and just missed going six furlongs in a strong effort last out. You won’t get the morning line if the top two scratch, but he’s still one of the classier members of this field.

RACE 6: MAIDEN CLAIMING $30,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 1 MILE

1-5-11-4

#1 Aikmans Audible (7-2) surged and just missed on debut at Parx, then made decent late ground after falling far behind in his local debut next out. He hasn’t run worse than a 65 in his two starts; that kind of race looks good enough to beat these. #5 Percy (3-1) may have won at this level last out if he changed leads. As it were, he battled in the stretch and just missed first off the Phil Capuano claim, improving sharply in his first start off a three-month break. #11 Tetched (6-1) ran a game race on the pace going a mile on debut, but stopped badly at 1 1/16 miles last out. He’ll appreciate the cutback around one turn.

RACE 7: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS

8-6-3-5

#8 Be Inspired (2-1) made her first start at this level on dirt last out. She was bumped and knocked around at the start, rushed up to the lead, and took control in the stretch, only to flatten out in the final eighth. In spite of that, she ran a strong 88, the best last-out figure in the field. She has an outside draw today, making her less susceptible to getting into traffic trouble at the break, and should have every shot to sit her trip and run them down. #6 Mor Mor Mor (5-1) dazzled in her maiden-breaking effort last out, going gate-to-wire in her first dirt appearance. She might have a harder time making the lead against better rivals, but has demonstrated a ton of upside. #3 Party (8-1) rerallied and just missed first off a three-month layoff at Penn National last out. It looks like she’s rounding into career-best form, and gets Jaime Rodriguez in the saddle for the first time.

RACE 8: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

5-7-3-4

Todd Pletcher is very dangerous when he sends a horse to Maryland. Since the start of 2020, he’s 6-for-13 with his runners in overnight races at Laurel and Pimlico. Here, he’s got #5 Prancing Spirit (7-5), who lasted through pace pressure on debut at Aqueduct and won going away. She catches a soft field for her local debut, and while you won’t make much money on her, she looks tough to beat. #7 Shkhara Fire (9-2) won the Maryland Million Lassie with a big, swooping move two starts ago. Last out, she battled on the pace going a mile and stopped badly. She should benefit from the cutback, and would be better off trying to employ her Lassie strategy in a race with plenty of speed. #3 Pocket Sand (9-5) set fast fractions by herself and kicked away to win impressively against winners last out at Penn National. She’s posted a very sharp workout since then, and should be a major pace presence

RACE 9: MAIDEN CLAIMING $12,500, 3-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES, 1 1/16 MILES

7-2-3-4

#7 Golden Girl Lena (3-1) has shown slow improvement in her last few starts, and gets Xavier Perez in the saddle for the first time. She hasn’t been beyond six furlongs, but she’ll win if she takes to the distance. #2 Drink Deeply (5-2) almost wired straight maidens four starts back, and now takes a career-low class drop. It looks like her strategy will be to go to the front and take them as far as she can. #3 Treasurethemoment (15-1) improved more than 20 points to a 58 at second asking last out, and has shown decent late speed. She could shake up the exotics.

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